Pack vs Cards part 2

[JBlood]

Now we went on the road in 2010 and beat a 13-3 Atlanta team

As has been pointed out, the only similarity of this team to the 2010 edition is the record. That team lost 6 games by a total of 20 points. This lost the same number by 70. It will take an unusual (for this team) effort for us to beat a better Arizona team on Saturday, regardless of the number of Packers fans in the stands. We lost 2 games at home to 2 of the worst teams in the league, and I'm pretty sure there were more Packers fans in the stadium those days.

 

[mongoosev]

As has been pointed out, the only similarity of this team to the 2010 edition is the record. That team lost 6 games by a total of 20 points. This lost the same number by 70. It will take an unusual (for this team) effort for us to beat a better Arizona team on Saturday, regardless of the number of Packers fans in the stands. We lost 2 games at home to 2 of the worst teams in the league, and I'm pretty sure there were more Packers fans in the stadium those days.

losing to those two worst teams just proves how bad we were struggling. I have a hard time believing that this Packers' team is just as bad as those TWO worst teams we do not speak of on this forum. ironically, if we were not struggling we would be just as "great" as this arizona team some think so highly of.

 

[broguy]

Rob Demovsky "McCarthy: Sam Shields had a really good workout yesterday. He's going to do some on-field workout today. Still in the concussion protocol."

Good news here. This means he's progressing through the protocol. Sounds like he's moving on to step 4. Just needs final clearance to be available for Saturday's game.

Rest and recovery. Players may stretch and work on their balance, but they don’t work out beyond that. In addition, they’re advised against spending time on computers, any electronic device and social media. They don’t take part in team meetings.

Light aerobic exercise. Under supervision of the team’s medical staff, the player can start cardiovascular exercise, such as riding a stationary bike and using a treadmill, and work on more dynamic stretching and balancing. The workload is increased gradually and halted entirely if concussion-related symptoms recur. Players can attend team meetings and study film.

Continued aerobic exercise, introduction of strength training.Building gradually on the work of step 2, the player can start weight training.

Football-specific work. The player adds non-contact football drills, such as throwing, catching and running to his repertoire of exercise. No contact allowed with other players, tackling dummies or sleds.

Full football activity, full clearance. The player resumes practicing with the team, with no limitations. Once the team physician clears him to complete, the player is examined by the independent neurological consultant, who also reviews any relevant neurological tests.

 

[broguy]

Davante Adams is the only player who will not practice in some capacity today. Rounding into health for the stretch run.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I'm pretty excited about Abby & Janis seeing significant playing time. Jones & Janis on the outside, Cobb & Abby working the middle/short routes. One of the vets needs to be in Janis' ear about catching everything thrown to him Saturday.

Pop a long one to Janis early and watch the passing game open up. Would also remove a safety from the box giving the running game a little more room. Don't like that Adams is hurt, but opportunity knocks. There are 2 WR's on the Practice Squad but don't know what roster move could happen to clear a spot for 1, but gotta think 4 WR's isn't acceptable.

adams being out could help us. I think adams is one of those guys where you just don't know which adams' will show up. as for numbers it does hurt our lineup.

I expect Thompson to promote Ed Williams from the practice squad but don´t see him getting any playing time. With Adams most likely missing the game I´m concerned about the Packers having only one true outside receiver other than Janis, who obviously isn´t ready to make an impact.

I believe we can win. This feels like that game against the Falcons first time we went we got killed then we went back and we killed them.

We lost by only three against the Falcons during the 2010 regular season.

 

[mongoosev]

I expect Thompson to promote Ed Williams from the practice squad but don´t see him getting any playing time. With Adams most likely missing the game I´m concerned about the Packers having only one true outside receiver other than Janis, who obviously isn´t ready to make an impact.

that is my concern as well. I really don't have confidence in Janis right now. punt return, why yes!

 

[TJV]

IMO it's all about match ups. And as Rodney at Packers Notes suggests, the match ups vs. the Redskins worked entirely in the Packers favor: "...very little playoff experience, a young quarterback, a shaky offensive line and one of the worst secondaries in the league". Unfortunately, these match ups against the Cards aren't in the Packers favor: "...playoff experience, a veteran quarterback, a solid offensive line and a very good secondary. Throw in creative play-callers and speed up and down the roster..." http://packersnotes.com/2016/01/cards-aint-the-skins/

I certainly expect the Packers to play a much better game than the last one against the Cards, but I think the Packers will have to play their best game of the season. And I hope McCarthy has some creative routes up his sleeve. Expecting the WRs to consistently win their one-on-one battles won't get it done.

 

[broguy]

IMO it's all about match ups. And as Rodney at Packers Notes suggests, the match ups vs. the Redskins worked entirely in the Packers favor: "...very little playoff experience, a young quarterback, a shaky offensive line and one of the worst secondaries in the league". Unfortunately, these match ups against the Cards aren't in the Packers favor: "...playoff experience, a veteran quarterback, a solid offensive line and a very good secondary. Throw in creative play-callers and speed up and down the roster..." http://packersnotes.com/2016/01/cards-aint-the-skins/

I certainly expect the Packers to play a much better game than the last one against the Cards, but I think the Packers will have to play their best game of the season. And I hope McCarthy has some creative routes up his sleeve. Expecting the WRs to consistently win their one-on-one battles won't get it done.

I agree that Arizona is obviously a much more difficult match up than Washington, but I disagree with some of the specifics from Packers Notes. For one, the Redskins line has given up the same number of sacks as Arizona. As far as adjusted sack rate, Washington only gave up sacks on 0.4% more drop backs than Arizona. So I wouldn't attribute our 6 sacks against Washington to a shaky line. Arizona's line is much better than Washington's at run blocking though. Also, Arizona does have more playoff experience than Washington, but I'd say it's negligible. They played one game last season with Ryan Lindley as their QB. I don't know how much that's really helping them on Saturday. Plus, Palmer has only played in 2 playoff games in his career (0-2) and in one of those games he threw one pass before tearing his ACL. Can't disagree with the veteran vs. young QB thing, though Cousins was one of the hottest QBs in the league going into the game last week.

But like I said, overall I agree with your sentiment. Arizona is much better than Washington, and this is gonna take a complete game, and our best of the season.

 

[PFanCan]

Are we being invaded?.? lol

Good to see Packer fans getting tickets though.

I saw that over 11,000 tickets for the game in Arizona were available a few days ago on stub hub. Now, less than 4,000. Wonder if Packer fans are buying them up? I hope so.

Always love to hear that, "Go Pack Go" in every stadium.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

One can only hope a similar video of Cardinal fans will air next week:

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[Tacklynn]

Cardinals are 7 point favorites. That's one touchdown + extra point. That's close from how I see it. I wonder if those odds include the recent Cardinals injury update.

Washington was favored by 1 point last week. We won by 17. That's 18 points better than projected. Maybe we can do just half that or 9 better than expected and win by 2.

 

[mongoosev]

got damn can't wait for this game! I know rodgers is going to have the best game this sat. all you naysayers **** let me have my moment. for all the believers out there...this one is for you .

 

[longtimefan]

IMO it's all about match ups. And as Rodney at Packers Notes suggests, the match ups vs. the Redskins worked entirely in the Packers favor: "...very little playoff experience, a young quarterback, a shaky offensive line and one of the worst secondaries in the league". Unfortunately, these match ups against the Cards aren't in the Packers favor: "...playoff experience, a veteran quarterback, a solid offensive line and a very good secondary. Throw in creative play-callers and speed up and down the roster..." http://packersnotes.com/2016/01/cards-aint-the-skins/

I certainly expect the Packers to play a much better game than the last one against the Cards, but I think the Packers will have to play their best game of the season. And I hope McCarthy has some creative routes up his sleeve. Expecting the WRs to consistently win their one-on-one battles won't get it done.

Was curious

2010

Philly #3 in offense points scored and #22 in defense points allowe


Atlanta #5 in offense points scored and #5 in defense points allowed


Chicago #22 in offense points scored and # 4 in defense points allowed


2015

Washington #10 points scored #17 in defense points allowed

Ariz #2 points scored #8 defense points allowed

 

[Shawnsta3]

IMO it's all about match ups. And as Rodney at Packers Notes suggests, the match ups vs. the Redskins worked entirely in the Packers favor: "...very little playoff experience, a young quarterback, a shaky offensive line and one of the worst secondaries in the league". Unfortunately, these match ups against the Cards aren't in the Packers favor: "...playoff experience, a veteran quarterback, a solid offensive line and a very good secondary. Throw in creative play-callers and speed up and down the roster..." http://packersnotes.com/2016/01/cards-aint-the-skins/

I certainly expect the Packers to play a much better game than the last one against the Cards, but I think the Packers will have to play their best game of the season. And I hope McCarthy has some creative routes up his sleeve. Expecting the WRs to consistently win their one-on-one battles won't get it done.

I'm glad you had "playoff experience" and "veteran quarterback" separate and then left it at that. I take it you know Palmers playoff history?

For those that don't, historically speaking that 36 year old quarterback has never won a playoff game. He's played in two such games, blowing out his knee early in one and getting himself a passer-rating of 58.4 in an upset loss against the Jets in the second.

Rodgers? He's 7-5 with a couple bad defenses sprinkled in there and has thrown for 25 touchdowns and 7 interceptions.

Obviously, Palmer is on a different team and historic performance isn't the only indicator of future performance..but if you're giving me a quarterback..a pretty decent playoff indicator..I know which one I'm taking. Do you?

 

[red4tribe]

We lost by only three against the Falcons during the 2010 regular season.

I would add as well that we outplayed them that first game. Only a Rodgers fumble on the goal line and then a botched kickoff return allowed Atlanta to win.

 

[Half Empty]

got damn can't wait for this game! I know rodgers is going to have the best game this sat. all you naysayers **** let me have my moment. for all the believers out there...this one is for you .

As almost always, nobody said you can't. Just let us have ours.

 

[milani]

Cardinals are 7 point favorites. That's one touchdown + extra point. That's close from how I see it. I wonder if those odds include the recent Cardinals injury update.

Washington was favored by 1 point last week. We won by 17. That's 18 points better than projected. Maybe we can do just half that or 9 better than expected and win by 2.

Odds makers don't like to go too high. The two times we were favored over the Giants in 2007 and 2011 they took us down in our place. If our game had been closer last week I'm certain the odds would have been 9.

 

[TJV]

Was curious...

To complete the comparison:
2010
Packers: #10 in offense points scored and #2 in defense points allowed
Philly #3 in offense points scored and #22 in defense points allowed
Atlanta #5 in offense points scored and #5 in defense points allowed
Chicago #22 in offense points scored and # 4 in defense points allowed

2015
Packers: #15 in offense points scored and #12 in defense points allowed
Washington #10 points scored #17 in defense points allowed
Ariz #2 points scored #8 defense points allowed

I'm glad you had "playoff experience" and "veteran quarterback" separate and then left it at that. I take it you know Palmers playoff history?...I know which one I'm taking. Do you?

Just to be clear I didn't have "playoff experience" and "veteran quarterback" separate, Michael Rodney who runs the Packers Notes site did. Here's that part of my post with his words bolded: And as Rodney at Packers Notes suggests, the match ups vs. the Redskins worked entirely in the Packers favor: "...very little playoff experience, a young quarterback, a shaky offensive line and one of the worst secondaries in the league". Unfortunately, these match ups against the Cards aren't in the Packers favor: "...playoff experience, a veteran quarterback, a solid offensive line and a very good secondary. Throw in creative play-callers and speed up and down the roster..."

 

[Sunshinepacker]

I'm glad you had "playoff experience" and "veteran quarterback" separate and then left it at that. I take it you know Palmers playoff history?

For those that don't, historically speaking that 36 year old quarterback has never won a playoff game. He's played in two such games, blowing out his knee early in one and getting himself a passer-rating of 58.4 in an upset loss against the Jets in the second.

Rodgers? He's 7-5 with a couple bad defenses sprinkled in there and has thrown for 25 touchdowns and 7 interceptions.

Obviously, Palmer is on a different team and historic performance isn't the only indicator of future performance..but if you're giving me a quarterback..a pretty decent playoff indicator..I know which one I'm taking. Do you?

I'll take the QB that's been playing better this season. Generally that means I'm taking Rodgers (that's been the case the past few years) but this year that means I can understand why the Cardinals are favored. A two game sample size for Palmer really isn't anything I'd take too seriously, especially when one of those losses was to the eventual Super Bowl champions.

 

[Yeats]

I think Rodgers showed, in the latter half anyway, that he has now adjusted to his oline and WRs. After the initial scares the team as a whole came into their own and it was plain sailing from there. Obviously the difference in the defense between the Redskins & the Cards is quite substantial but the last game was only the start. Upwards and onwards from there. I'm confident of a Packers win, albeit it probably will be a narrow one.

 

[broguy]

Cardinals 2015 Home and Road Splits:

Cardinals Away (7-1):
Non-Divisional Opponents: Bears, Lions, Steelers, Browns, and Eagles
Points For: 32.75
Points Against: 18.75
Passer Rating (Avg. Opp. DVOA against Pass): 102.4 (19.8)
Opp. Passer Rating (Avg. Opp. Pass DVOA): 84.1 (17.2)
Rushing Yards/Game (Avg. Opp. DVOA against Rush): 133.5 (20.8)
Opp. Rushing Yards/Game (Avg. Opp. Rush DVOA): 99.1 (14.4)

Cardinals Home (6-2):
Non-Divisional Opponents: Saints, Ravens, Bengals, Vikings, and Packers
Points For: 28.38
Points Against: 20.38
Passer Rating (Opp. DVOA against Pass): 96.7 (16.8)
Opp. Passer Rating (Opp. Pass DVOA): 74.4 (12.8)
Rushing Yards/Game (Opp. DVOA against Rush): 106.1 (17.6)
Opp. Rushing Yards/Game (Opp. Rush DVOA): 83.38 (11.8)

*NOTE: All DVOA metrics are the average ranks of non-divisional opponents (i.e. opponnents that are not shared between home and away schedule.

SUMMARY: Just looking at scoring numbers, the Cardinals performed significantly better on the road this year than they did at home. However, looking at the non-divisional opponents, it's clear that the Cardinals had a much easier road schedule, facing only 1 playoff team, as opposed to 3 at home. Delving into the numbers a little deeper, the offense had a lot more success passing and running the football on the road, against only slightly better defenses. One might conclude that the Cardinals offense has been worse, or at least no better, at home. What's impressive is the performance of the defense at home. Despite playing significantly better offenses at home, the Cardinals defense held opposing teams to 16 less yards rushing per game at home, and allowed an average passer rating that was nearly 10 points below their road average.

 

[broguy]

Now for the other half...
Packers 2015 Home and Road Splits:

Packers Away (6-3):
Non-Divisional Opponents: 49ers, Broncos, Panthers, Raiders, Cardinals, and Redskins
Points For: 24.11
Points Against: 22.67
Passer Rating (Avg. Opp. DVOA against Pass): 87.9 (12)
Opp. Passer Rating (Avg. Opp. Pass DVOA): 72.8 (14)
Rushing Yards/Game (Avg. Opp. DVOA against Rush): 110.2 (12)
Opp. Rushing Yards/Game (Avg. Opp. Rush DVOA): 101.4 (19.7)

Packers Home (5-3):
Non-Divisional Opponents: Seahawks, Chiefs, Rams, Chargers, and Cowboys
Points For: 23.25
Points Against: 17.13
Passer Rating (Opp. DVOA against Pass): 93.3 (11)
Opp. Passer Rating (Opp. Pass DVOA): 84.1 (17.4)
Rushing Yards/Game (Opp. DVOA against Rush): 124.9 (16.4)
Opp. Rushing Yards/Game (Opp. Rush DVOA): 133.6 (11.8)

*NOTE: All DVOA metrics are the average ranks of non-divisional opponents (i.e. opponnents that are not shared between home and away schedule.

SUMMARY: First, let's talk about schedule. The difficulty of the home schedule is really inflated by the Chiefs and Seahawks games, but I think it's fair to say that we got weaker versions of those teams than what we're seeing from them now. Does that make up for the better home passer rating against tougher pass defenses at home compared to on the road? It's tough to say, but I'd guess that it's a contributing factor. The other thing that stands out to me is our opponents' passer rating on the road. It's over ten points lower than opponents' passer ratings in Lambeau, despite facing better passing attacks on the road. That road defense showed it's prowess in the wildcard round against a hot Washington passing attack. I don't know if I'd take too much from holding teams to 30 fewer rushing yards per game on the road given the disparity in rushing attackks we saw home vs. away.

 

[4Ever4Favre]

I think Rodgers showed, in the latter half anyway, that he has now adjusted to his oline and WRs. After the initial scares the team as a whole came into their own and it was plain sailing from there. Obviously the difference in the defense between the Redskins & the Cards is quite substantial but the last game was only the start. Upwards and onwards from there. I'm confident of a Packers win, albeit it probably will be a narrow one.

I am not sure how you come to this conclusion. Do you think that after 11 weeks of this offense sucking they magically came in sync in one half. Rodgers missed opportunities in that game shows me he has not adjusted to his receivers. We won the Redskins game mainly because we effectively ran the ball down their throats in the second half and had a great defensive effort for the game. I hope to see more of that this Saturday, otherwise I think we are in trouble. They have some pretty good DB's and a fantastic pass rush. It can't be a shootout or we will come up short, way short.

 

[Yeats]

Because I noticed Rodgers starting to have more time on the ball, our WRs, even if Rodgers wasn't hitting them with the efficiency we're used to seeing from him, were getting open more often than not. It probably took him by surprise seeing his receivers being open to the extent they were at the start. I know the challenge from the Cards will be far greater, and their pass rush more of a challenge, but Rodgers is a big game player.

 

[4Ever4Favre]

Because I noticed Rodgers starting to have more time on the ball, our WRs, even if Rodgers wasn't hitting them with the efficiency we're used to seeing from him, were getting open more often than not. It probably took him by surprise seeing his receivers being open to the extent they were at the start. I know the challenge from the Cards will be far greater, and their pass rush more of a challenge, but Rodgers is a big game player.

Ha! I can just picture him dropping back, looking and seeing a receiver with separation, getting all pumped and excited like it is a once and a lifetime opportunity, and then leading them a bit too far because he is so pumped.

If we can effectively run the ball, take chunks of time with offensive possessions, and score TD's (not FG's) when we have the chance, I think we can win. I think our defense will be alright. LB's in coverage (along with Hyde) is our biggest weakness and the thing that can kill us. Shutting down their RB's and TE's is key. No f'ing zone because we suck at covering the middle of the field in zone.