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Overall Graft Grades, PF "experts"

Discussion in 'Green Bay Packers Fan Forum' started by XPack, Apr 25, 2019.

  1. GleefulGary

    GleefulGary Cheesehead

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    PFF says they're good: Ignore stats, ignore film.

    PFF says they're bad: Stats matter this time! Ignore film, ignore coaches, ignore scheme and context.
     
  2. rmontro

    rmontro Cheesehead

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    As do I, but unfortunately that seems to get to be a bigger feat as time goes on. Every snap is beginning to be nerve wracking.
     
  3. XPack

    XPack Cheesehead

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    Not really. The surrounding cast is obviously better and he can restart the game plan from scratch with Matt. I expect his performance to be elite.
     
  4. rmontro

    rmontro Cheesehead

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    Just to be clear, when I say that every snap is nerve wracking, I mean that I'm concerned that he's going to get injured. It's literally been years since he's been healthy most of the season.
     
  5. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    For the umpteenth time, I'm not saying that Gary will turn out to be a bust but his lack of production in college is reason for concern. I'm sorry but I won't consider the opinion of a random poster on an internet forum who claims to have watched a few games more important than the one of several experts who evaluate prospects for a living.

    At this point it seems I was wrong about it as Jackson struggled during his rookie campaign. But it's way too early to give up on him after only one season in the league.

    For the umpteenth time, I'm not saying that Gary will bust but his lack of production in college is a reason for concern.

    JanisJubilee says they're good: Ignore the opinion of everybody else.

    JanisJubilee says they're bad: Follow same instructions as if he says they're good.

    Unfortunately I don't consider Rodgers' supporting cast to be improved over last season.
     
  6. rmontro

    rmontro Cheesehead

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    Ouch. Gute's just spinning his wheels so far? I know we've had some subtractions to go along with our additions, but that's harsh. Not saying it's inaccurate necessarily (we'll have to see), but harsh.
     
  7. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    Well, while the Packers probably improved their offensive line this offseason Gutekunst didn't upgrade the receiving corps in my opinion. It's possible one or even better several of the youngsters make a jump during their second season in the league but as of right now there's no reason to consider the supporting cast to be any better.

    LaFleur introducing a new offense and Rodgers hopefully being able to stay healthy might result in a significantly better offense in 2019 though.
     
  8. XPack

    XPack Cheesehead

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    We did spend draft capital on WR last year. Lots of talent there and too soon to be adding more in before we decide on those we already have.
     
  9. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    The Packers currently don't have a proven receiving threat aside of Adams. While it's true the team spent several day three picks on the position last year they could have benefitted from having another experienced weapon on offense entering 2019.
     
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  10. Sunshinepacker

    Sunshinepacker Cheesehead

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    I would just like to know what magic scheme Michigan used that lead to Gary being double teamed. Because, apparently, they should have used the scheme of every other first round pass rusher that was in because those other players were never double teamed? Just trying to understand the logic that Gary didn't produce because he was double teamed so other players that DID produce must have never seen double teams.

    I'm having deja-vu of BJ Raji discussions...
     
  11. Sunshinepacker

    Sunshinepacker Cheesehead

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    I think the offensive personnel have improved if only because the offense list nobody o that really mattered and the rookie WRs aren't rookies anymore. That's improvement in my book.
     
  12. mradtke66

    mradtke66 Cheesehead

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    You're not wrong, but I think it's important to investigate how we compare Gary to those other high picks.

    Bosa was used more as a designated pass rusher. From my understanding, the scheme was setup to feature him. Comparing Gary to Bosa is disingenuous. Even if Bosa is double teamed, he's aligned to give him the best chance of turning the corner and/or that double team comes from a back.

    Comparing him to Quinnen Williams is more fair. Regardless of the name of their positions, their roles were more closely aligned. Williams, as a 3T, would get doubled by a tackle and guard based on his alignment. Gary by a tackle and TE. They have more beef to run through. Yes, Williams had the better season, but he went 3rd.

    Further, if we take Michigan's staff at face value, Gary's role of "knocking the crap out of the tight end," means he was always a half-step late getting into his rush. It's going to show up on the stat sheet.

    My suspicion is that his stats were down in 2018 due to injury. He played 4 fewer games than 2017, when he notched 5.5 sacks. Not a world beater by any stretch, but right in line with what I would call a good season for primarily run-defender role.

    The injury itself and the games missed (.42 sacks per game vs. .388), likely explains the drop off.

    If Gary ends up being nothing more than a solid run defender, which was demonstrated in college, he's not a bust, just a player that didn't live up to his draft position.
     
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  13. Sunshinepacker

    Sunshinepacker Cheesehead

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    I can understand ppl saying that Gary didn't perform due to injury or that the Packers coaches will finally unlock his potential. Fine, it's really risky, but I get the hope. What I don't understand are the arguments that somehow he didn't perform in college because he faced double teams, or that he was supposed to hit the TE. First, as I've said, every great pass rusher faces double teams and they still manage to produce. Second, if he was actually a really good pass rusher then Michigan should fire their d coordinator because I'm not sure I've heard a good coach use the philosophy of "weaken a great pass rusher because I can't be bothered to have a different, lesser pass rusher act as a speed bump".

    I would also add that, when eliminating stunts and blitzes (so giving him one-on one pass rush), PFF noted that Gary ranked 64th among edge defenders in this draft with at least 100 such chances.

    I understand the hope that THIS coaching staff will finally get through to him, I mean, the upside is HUGE if he "gets it". But let's be realistic about the pick, it's one based on projecting his physical talent and the belief the coaches can unlock it; not so much due to his actual play on the field.
     
  14. mradtke66

    mradtke66 Cheesehead

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    As far as hitting the TE, that's a simple concept. If you are the edge rusher to the TE side, you can get a better pass rush if you avoid the tight end. Swim, rip, whatever you need to do to split the double team and make a play. You'll likely get better pass rushing stats. The trade off is you'll have more TEs running free down the seam.

    If instead, your job is to mug the tight end and prevent him from getting a clean release, you've made the coverage easier--he's late into his route, the QB might ignore him altogether. And in college, the threat of a quarterback run is there. Mugging the TE is part of good run defense. The trade off is you're going to get fewer free rushes.

    This is/was a basic concept back when I was in high school...20 years ago. Damn, when did I get old?

    The quality of the double team matters. Michigan has gone on record (and the film backs it up) that Gary took the tight end side of the offensive formation. In most offensive schemes, that is a higher quality double team than a back and tackle.

    My understanding is the scheme choice wasn't about de-featuring Gary, but rather that he was really good at the job they gave him. And better at it than anyone else on the team.

    At the risk again at taking Michigan's staff's comments at face value, this was Gary playing within the scheme, doing his job well, at the risk of his stats. Sounds like a team player to me. Not unlike Matthews moving over to ILB for a couple seasons.

    It is and it isn't. While his projection as a pass rusher is projection, his play as a run defender is known. He does his job well. You certainly want more from a top-15 pick, but if we get his healthy, sophomore season, that projects to 6.5-7 sacks per a 16 game season. Coupled with his solid run defense, that's still a good pick.
     
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  15. Nopainnogain

    Nopainnogain Cheesehead

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    GB hasn't spent as much on defense as people think. Not all 1st-round picks are equal value. There could be teams that spend a smaller percentage of their own draft assets on defense but still spend more assets on defense than GB just by virtue of having more assets to start with. If you look the total draft capital (per draft pick value chart) spent on defense in the previous 4 drafts for each year, GB's draft spending rankings vs. the league are: 2012:#12, 2013:#27, 2014:#21, 2015:#7, 2016:#17, 2017:#14. So 2015 was really the only year since 2009 that they measured very high in this metric. And they had a pretty strong year then defensively, though people forget about that because they were preoccupied with the struggles of the offense when it floundered without Jordy.
     
  16. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    It's possible the offense will be improved this season because of LaFleur's scheme, Rodgers hopefully staying healthy and one or several of the youngsters making a jump but at this point it's only a projection.

    While it's true the Packers have mostly picked at the bottom of each round I don't consider the trade value chart to be a decent indicator on how much asset the team has spent on the defensive side of the ball over the past eight years.
     
  17. swhitset

    swhitset Cheesehead

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    Are you baiting Wimm ? lol
     
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  18. Pokerbrat2000

    Pokerbrat2000 Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.

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    Not at all :whistling: Just pointing out that players are going to have their ups and downs. Very few players are "great" on every snap.
     
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  19. Packerpug

    Packerpug Cheesehead

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    I am very disappointed in Mark Murphy. I dont understand why he is never held accountable. I would like to suggest John Kuhn as the new President of the Packers.
     
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  20. Mondio

    Mondio Cheesehead

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    huh? Murphy has mostly been invloved in business aspect and public relation side of the Packers, of which they have done nothing but grow in that time and only recently taken a more proactive role in the actual football side of things. There hasn't been enough time to suggest he's doing a great or poor job at that. It's been barely over 1 full season since that's happened.

    Not sure what experience Kuhn has in team management. i think he's angling more for sports commentator not team manager.
     
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  21. Heyjoe4

    Heyjoe4 Cheesehead

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    Considering the numerous holes he had to fill coming into the off season, I think Gute’s done a respectable job. Can’t fill every hole. My only beef is that I would have liked it if a veteran WR had been added. Maybe he ran out of cap space, but there’s only one proven wide out on the team, Adams. There’s a lot riding on last year’s class making a big year two jump.
     
  22. Pokerbrat2000

    Pokerbrat2000 Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.

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    People expecting the Packer organization to turn around on a dime are delusional. Just look around the league at other organizations if you question that. While TT and MM didn't leave the Packers a complete disaster, they did leave behind enough issues and needs that this isn't getting fixed overnight.

    If you are patient, maybe you will see Gute and MLF get the Packers on track, but I don't think that is happening overnight.
     
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  23. Heyjoe4

    Heyjoe4 Cheesehead

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    There were/are too many holes to fix in a single season. We want it all right now because we don’t know how long #12 will be around. Well, when you have 3 or 4 drafts and spend the top picks on defense, and for the same position (CB/S) that’s gonna catch up with a team in other areas. This was another off season where the D took most of the focus. There are only so many high picks and cap space to go around in a given year. I think Gute has done well with what he was given to work with. I’d love to see a SB championship this year. Realistically, that’s at least another year, probably two, down the road.
     
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  24. rmontro

    rmontro Cheesehead

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    Well, it's not overnight. We're into the second year of major change as far as I can see, Capers and Thompson were replaced after the 2017 season. This season Gute will have had two offseasons to work on the roster. And the 2016 team had made it to the NFCCG, so he wasn't starting with nothing.

    Rodgers has shown he can get the Packers pretty far if given a half decent team to start with. I'm not saying I expect to see them in the Super Bowl, but they should get into the playoffs, or if not, at least damn close. But that's all out the window if Rodgers gets hurt again.
     
  25. AmishMafia

    AmishMafia Cheesehead

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    I'm voting for Donald Driver. He has a good smile and I recognize his name. GM I could see Brett Farve. For HC I'm thinking Jeff janis. For QB - Leonardo DiCaprio. He can act very well and we just ask him 'play' Tom Brady. I mean I have heard of all these guys and it's easy to do.
     
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