Overall Graft Grades, PF "experts"

[Deleted member 6794]

Again, no, I have not watched all of Gary's career. I did watch a few full games from the 2018 season. Those aren't highlights, bubba.

For the umpteenth time, I'm not saying that Gary will turn out to be a bust but his lack of production in college is reason for concern. I'm sorry but I won't consider the opinion of a random poster on an internet forum who claims to have watched a few games more important than the one of several experts who evaluate prospects for a living.

This is going to end up like last year, when you were insistent that Josh Jackson was good in press man coverage bc of PFF...and how exactly did that turn out again?

At this point it seems I was wrong about it as Jackson struggled during his rookie campaign. But it's way too early to give up on him after only one season in the league.

For the umpteenth time, I'm not saying that Gary will bust but his lack of production in college is a reason for concern.

PFF says they're good: Ignore stats, ignore film.

PFF says they're bad: Stats matter this time! Ignore film, ignore coaches, ignore scheme and context.

JanisJubilee says they're good: Ignore the opinion of everybody else.

JanisJubilee says they're bad: Follow same instructions as if he says they're good.

Not really. The surrounding cast is obviously better and he can restart the game plan from scratch with Matt. I expect his performance to be elite.

Unfortunately I don't consider Rodgers' supporting cast to be improved over last season.

 

[rmontro]

Unfortunately I don't consider Rodgers' supporting cast to be improved over last season.

Ouch. Gute's just spinning his wheels so far? I know we've had some subtractions to go along with our additions, but that's harsh. Not saying it's inaccurate necessarily (we'll have to see), but harsh.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Ouch. Gute's just spinning his wheels so far? I know we've had some subtractions to go along with our additions, but that's harsh. Not saying it's inaccurate necessarily (we'll have to see), but harsh.

Well, while the Packers probably improved their offensive line this offseason Gutekunst didn't upgrade the receiving corps in my opinion. It's possible one or even better several of the youngsters make a jump during their second season in the league but as of right now there's no reason to consider the supporting cast to be any better.

LaFleur introducing a new offense and Rodgers hopefully being able to stay healthy might result in a significantly better offense in 2019 though.

 

[XPack]

Well, while the Packers probably improved their offensive line this offseason Gutekunst didn't upgrade the receiving corps in my opinion. It's possible one or even better several of the youngsters make a jump during their second season in the league but as of right now there's no reason to consider the supporting cast to be any better.

LaFleur introducing a new offense and Rodgers hopefully being able to stay healthy might result in a significantly better offense in 2019 though.

We did spend draft capital on WR last year. Lots of talent there and too soon to be adding more in before we decide on those we already have.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

We did spend draft capital on WR last year. Lots of talent there and too soon to be adding more in before we decide on those we already have.

The Packers currently don't have a proven receiving threat aside of Adams. While it's true the team spent several day three picks on the position last year they could have benefitted from having another experienced weapon on offense entering 2019.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

PFF says they're good: Ignore stats, ignore film.

PFF says they're bad: Stats matter this time! Ignore film, ignore coaches, ignore scheme and context.

I would just like to know what magic scheme Michigan used that lead to Gary being double teamed. Because, apparently, they should have used the scheme of every other first round pass rusher that was in because those other players were never double teamed? Just trying to understand the logic that Gary didn't produce because he was double teamed so other players that DID produce must have never seen double teams.

I'm having deja-vu of BJ Raji discussions...

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Well, while the Packers probably improved their offensive line this offseason Gutekunst didn't upgrade the receiving corps in my opinion. It's possible one or even better several of the youngsters make a jump during their second season in the league but as of right now there's no reason to consider the supporting cast to be any better.

LaFleur introducing a new offense and Rodgers hopefully being able to stay healthy might result in a significantly better offense in 2019 though.

I think the offensive personnel have improved if only because the offense list nobody o that really mattered and the rookie WRs aren't rookies anymore. That's improvement in my book.

 

[mradtke66]

I would just like to know what magic scheme Michigan used that lead to Gary being double teamed. Because, apparently, they should have used the scheme of every other first round pass rusher that was in because those other players were never double teamed?

You're not wrong, but I think it's important to investigate how we compare Gary to those other high picks.

Bosa was used more as a designated pass rusher. From my understanding, the scheme was setup to feature him. Comparing Gary to Bosa is disingenuous. Even if Bosa is double teamed, he's aligned to give him the best chance of turning the corner and/or that double team comes from a back.

Comparing him to Quinnen Williams is more fair. Regardless of the name of their positions, their roles were more closely aligned. Williams, as a 3T, would get doubled by a tackle and guard based on his alignment. Gary by a tackle and TE. They have more beef to run through. Yes, Williams had the better season, but he went 3rd.

Further, if we take Michigan's staff at face value, Gary's role of "knocking the crap out of the tight end," means he was always a half-step late getting into his rush. It's going to show up on the stat sheet.

My suspicion is that his stats were down in 2018 due to injury. He played 4 fewer games than 2017, when he notched 5.5 sacks. Not a world beater by any stretch, but right in line with what I would call a good season for primarily run-defender role.

The injury itself and the games missed (.42 sacks per game vs. .388), likely explains the drop off.

If Gary ends up being nothing more than a solid run defender, which was demonstrated in college, he's not a bust, just a player that didn't live up to his draft position.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

You're not wrong, but I think it's important to investigate how we compare Gary to those other high picks.

Bosa was used more as a designated pass rusher. From my understanding, the scheme was setup to feature him. Comparing Gary to Bosa is disingenuous. Even if Bosa is double teamed, he's aligned to give him the best chance of turning the corner and/or that double team comes from a back.

Comparing him to Quinnen Williams is more fair. Regardless of the name of their positions, their roles were more closely aligned. Williams, as a 3T, would get doubled by a tackle and guard based on his alignment. Gary by a tackle and TE. They have more beef to run through. Yes, Williams had the better season, but he went 3rd.

Further, if we take Michigan's staff at face value, Gary's role of "knocking the crap out of the tight end," means he was always a half-step late getting into his rush. It's going to show up on the stat sheet.

My suspicion is that his stats were down in 2018 due to injury. He played 4 fewer games than 2017, when he notched 5.5 sacks. Not a world beater by any stretch, but right in line with what I would call a good season for primarily run-defender role.

The injury itself and the games missed (.42 sacks per game vs. .388), likely explains the drop off.

If Gary ends up being nothing more than a solid run defender, which was demonstrated in college, he's not a bust, just a player that didn't live up to his draft position.

I can understand ppl saying that Gary didn't perform due to injury or that the Packers coaches will finally unlock his potential. Fine, it's really risky, but I get the hope. What I don't understand are the arguments that somehow he didn't perform in college because he faced double teams, or that he was supposed to hit the TE. First, as I've said, every great pass rusher faces double teams and they still manage to produce. Second, if he was actually a really good pass rusher then Michigan should fire their d coordinator because I'm not sure I've heard a good coach use the philosophy of "weaken a great pass rusher because I can't be bothered to have a different, lesser pass rusher act as a speed bump".

I would also add that, when eliminating stunts and blitzes (so giving him one-on one pass rush), PFF noted that Gary ranked 64th among edge defenders in this draft with at least 100 such chances.

I understand the hope that THIS coaching staff will finally get through to him, I mean, the upside is HUGE if he "gets it". But let's be realistic about the pick, it's one based on projecting his physical talent and the belief the coaches can unlock it; not so much due to his actual play on the field.

 

[mradtke66]

or that he was supposed to hit the TE.

As far as hitting the TE, that's a simple concept. If you are the edge rusher to the TE side, you can get a better pass rush if you avoid the tight end. Swim, rip, whatever you need to do to split the double team and make a play. You'll likely get better pass rushing stats. The trade off is you'll have more TEs running free down the seam.

If instead, your job is to mug the tight end and prevent him from getting a clean release, you've made the coverage easier--he's late into his route, the QB might ignore him altogether. And in college, the threat of a quarterback run is there. Mugging the TE is part of good run defense. The trade off is you're going to get fewer free rushes.

This is/was a basic concept back when I was in high school...20 years ago. Damn, when did I get old?

First, as I've said, every great pass rusher faces double teams and they still manage to produce.

The quality of the double team matters. Michigan has gone on record (and the film backs it up) that Gary took the tight end side of the offensive formation. In most offensive schemes, that is a higher quality double team than a back and tackle.

Second, if he was actually a really good pass rusher then Michigan should fire their d coordinator because I'm not sure I've heard a good coach use the philosophy of "weaken a great pass rusher because I can't be bothered to have a different, lesser pass rusher act as a speed bump".

My understanding is the scheme choice wasn't about de-featuring Gary, but rather that he was really good at the job they gave him. And better at it than anyone else on the team.

At the risk again at taking Michigan's staff's comments at face value, this was Gary playing within the scheme, doing his job well, at the risk of his stats. Sounds like a team player to me. Not unlike Matthews moving over to ILB for a couple seasons.

I understand the hope that THIS coaching staff will finally get through to him, I mean, the upside is HUGE if he "gets it". But let's be realistic about the pick, it's one based on projecting his physical talent and the belief the coaches can unlock it; not so much due to his actual play on the field.

It is and it isn't. While his projection as a pass rusher is projection, his play as a run defender is known. He does his job well. You certainly want more from a top-15 pick, but if we get his healthy, sophomore season, that projects to 6.5-7 sacks per a 16 game season. Coupled with his solid run defense, that's still a good pick.

 

[Nopainnogain]

That's a handy tool there. So what I found out was that from the years 2012-2019 (I changed 2011 to 2012 because the 2012 draft would have followed the 2011 season), Green Bay picked:

8 defensive players in the first round,
18 defensive players in the first three rounds,
and 6 offensive players in the first three rounds (no #1s).

I wanted to compare this to other teams, but I'm too lazy to run every team, so I just ran the other teams in our division:

As expected, that showed that Green Bay spent quite a bit more draft capital on defensive players than at least the other teams in the NFC North.

GB hasn't spent as much on defense as people think. Not all 1st-round picks are equal value. There could be teams that spend a smaller percentage of their own draft assets on defense but still spend more assets on defense than GB just by virtue of having more assets to start with. If you look the total draft capital (per draft pick value chart) spent on defense in the previous 4 drafts for each year, GB's draft spending rankings vs. the league are: 2012:#12, 2013:#27, 2014:#21, 2015:#7, 2016:#17, 2017:#14. So 2015 was really the only year since 2009 that they measured very high in this metric. And they had a pretty strong year then defensively, though people forget about that because they were preoccupied with the struggles of the offense when it floundered without Jordy.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I think the offensive personnel have improved if only because the offense list nobody o that really mattered and the rookie WRs aren't rookies anymore. That's improvement in my book.

It's possible the offense will be improved this season because of LaFleur's scheme, Rodgers hopefully staying healthy and one or several of the youngsters making a jump but at this point it's only a projection.

GB hasn't spent as much on defense as people think. Not all 1st-round picks are equal value. There could be teams that spend a smaller percentage of their own draft assets on defense but still spend more assets on defense than GB just by virtue of having more assets to start with. If you look the total draft capital (per draft pick value chart) spent on defense in the previous 4 drafts for each year, GB's draft spending rankings vs. the league are: 2012:#12, 2013:#27, 2014:#21, 2015:#7, 2016:#17, 2017:#14. So 2015 was really the only year since 2009 that they measured very high in this metric.

While it's true the Packers have mostly picked at the bottom of each round I don't consider the trade value chart to be a decent indicator on how much asset the team has spent on the defensive side of the ball over the past eight years.

 

[swhitset]

Sounds like he would make a great kicker for the Packers!

Are you baiting Wimm ? lol

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Are you baiting Wimm ? lol

Not at all Just pointing out that players are going to have their ups and downs. Very few players are "great" on every snap.

 

[Packerpug]

I am very disappointed in Mark Murphy. I dont understand why he is never held accountable. I would like to suggest John Kuhn as the new President of the Packers.

 

[Mondio]

huh? Murphy has mostly been invloved in business aspect and public relation side of the Packers, of which they have done nothing but grow in that time and only recently taken a more proactive role in the actual football side of things. There hasn't been enough time to suggest he's doing a great or poor job at that. It's been barely over 1 full season since that's happened.

Not sure what experience Kuhn has in team management. i think he's angling more for sports commentator not team manager.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Ouch. Gute's just spinning his wheels so far? I know we've had some subtractions to go along with our additions, but that's harsh. Not saying it's inaccurate necessarily (we'll have to see), but harsh.

Considering the numerous holes he had to fill coming into the off season, I think Gute’s done a respectable job. Can’t fill every hole. My only beef is that I would have liked it if a veteran WR had been added. Maybe he ran out of cap space, but there’s only one proven wide out on the team, Adams. There’s a lot riding on last year’s class making a big year two jump.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

People expecting the Packer organization to turn around on a dime are delusional. Just look around the league at other organizations if you question that. While TT and MM didn't leave the Packers a complete disaster, they did leave behind enough issues and needs that this isn't getting fixed overnight.

If you are patient, maybe you will see Gute and MLF get the Packers on track, but I don't think that is happening overnight.

 

[Heyjoe4]

People expecting the Packer organization to turn around on a dime are delusional. Just look around the league at other organizations if you question that. While TT and MM didn't leave the Packers a complete disaster, they did leave behind enough issues and needs that this isn't getting fixed overnight.

If you are patient, maybe you will see Gute and MLF get the Packers on track, but I don't think that is happening overnight.

There were/are too many holes to fix in a single season. We want it all right now because we don’t know how long #12 will be around. Well, when you have 3 or 4 drafts and spend the top picks on defense, and for the same position (CB/S) that’s gonna catch up with a team in other areas. This was another off season where the D took most of the focus. There are only so many high picks and cap space to go around in a given year. I think Gute has done well with what he was given to work with. I’d love to see a SB championship this year. Realistically, that’s at least another year, probably two, down the road.

 

[rmontro]

If you are patient, maybe you will see Gute and MLF get the Packers on track, but I don't think that is happening overnight.

Well, it's not overnight. We're into the second year of major change as far as I can see, Capers and Thompson were replaced after the 2017 season. This season Gute will have had two offseasons to work on the roster. And the 2016 team had made it to the NFCCG, so he wasn't starting with nothing.

Rodgers has shown he can get the Packers pretty far if given a half decent team to start with. I'm not saying I expect to see them in the Super Bowl, but they should get into the playoffs, or if not, at least damn close. But that's all out the window if Rodgers gets hurt again.

 

[AmishMafia]

I would like to suggest John Kuhn as the new President of the Packers.

I'm voting for Donald Driver. He has a good smile and I recognize his name. GM I could see Brett Farve. For HC I'm thinking Jeff janis. For QB - Leonardo DiCaprio. He can act very well and we just ask him 'play' Tom Brady. I mean I have heard of all these guys and it's easy to do.

 

[HardRightEdge]

And the 2016 team had made it to the NFCCG, so he wasn't starting with nothing.

Of the 14 defensive players who started 7 or more games in 2016 the only guys still left on the roster are Martinez and Daniels.

The 12 departed players in that group are Burnett, Clinton-Dix, Ryan, Thomas, Hyde, Gunter, Perry, Rollins, Randall, Guion, Matthews and Peppers.

That was not a good defense, 18th. in yards, 22nd. in points, 29th. in takeaways. The departing group includes a mix of problem children, underperformers, injured players who could not bounce back, and older players in decline. The only one you could say is "the one that got away" might be Hyde, and while his departure was understandable it was Thompson's doing.

On offense, the leading skill position players in 2016 were Montgomery, Lacy, Nelson, Adams, Cobb and Cook. Only Adams remains, and I'm not seeing a guy in this departing group as a guy that got away, with problem children and Nelson and Cobb hitting the age/injury wall. Cook had his best season last year in Oakland; see if he gets 101 targets again in an offense with more options. Anyway, Cook departing was also on Thompson's watch anyway.

Thompson left this team with a slow moving veteran train wreck in progress, without sufficient yield from the drafts in the way of upcoming replacements. If Gutekunst made any mistake at all, it was not starting in 2018, to the extent cap would allow, what he did in for 2019 to reload with second contract players. Thinking Graham was a missing piece was a mistake.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Well, it's not overnight. We're into the second year of major change as far as I can see, Capers and Thompson were replaced after the 2017 season. This season Gute will have had two offseasons to work on the roster. And the 2016 team had made it to the NFCCG, so he wasn't starting with nothing.

Rodgers has shown he can get the Packers pretty far if given a half decent team to start with. I'm not saying I expect to see them in the Super Bowl, but they should get into the playoffs, or if not, at least damn close. But that's all out the window if Rodgers gets hurt again.

I don't see Pettine being hired last year as a major change and Thompson wasn't fully out of the picture either, but we split hairs. I prefer you are correct and the Packers turn it around this season, I just don't expect it.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Considering the numerous holes he had to fill coming into the off season, I think Gute’s done a respectable job. Can’t fill every hole. My only beef is that I would have liked it if a veteran WR had been added. Maybe he ran out of cap space, but there’s only one proven wide out on the team, Adams. There’s a lot riding on last year’s class making a big year two jump.

I agree that I would have liked the Packers to add a veteran slot receiver this offseason. Hopefully one of the youngsters can excel in that role though.

Well, it's not overnight. We're into the second year of major change as far as I can see, Capers and Thompson were replaced after the 2017 season. This season Gute will have had two offseasons to work on the roster. And the 2016 team had made it to the NFCCG, so he wasn't starting with nothing.

Rodgers has shown he can get the Packers pretty far if given a half decent team to start with.

The 2016 team wasn't loaded with talent though. Rodgers carried that squad on his back after the Packers started 4-6 and carried them to the NFCCG. Unfortunately #12 getting injured early next season reared its ugly head about the overall talent level on the roster.

 

[Mondio]

The roster and cap were aging out. We didn't have the replacements that were ready to step in like in so many other years. A couple poor drafts and aging roster brought us here. It's inevitable for every team at some point. It's hardly a surprise. I think Gute has largely done a good job in re-working the roster. Things don't get easier from here either though. Age and investment in a HOF QB are going to push some moves and there is a lot of pressure on him. So far I think he's done a fine job.