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Overall Graft Grades, PF "experts"

Discussion in 'Green Bay Packers Fan Forum' started by XPack, Apr 25, 2019.

  1. OldSchool101

    OldSchool101 Peerless Beer, Lacrosse WI

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    yeah. No way does an entire team of scouts and personnel overlook a #12 pick. The top 15 players at minimum are heavily scrutinized. The only thing that a limited stat sheet tells me is that the personnel team in GB feels like Rashan is going to really excel. Rashan likely had tape that’s been reviewed, compared, weighed, argued, debated and heavily scrutinized. They likely had additional feedback from the DC Coordinator and his staff.

    I guess what I’m saying is they didn’t go into this pick blind. They didn’t ignore the limited stats, they didn’t ignore a shoulder injury. They didn’t ignore the negatives. They must’ve thought his upside would far offset the risk. That excites me to know he must be viewed as not being anywhere close to his ceiling. I hope he reaches that potential. We just might have a monster there at #12.

    Gary also graded out very strong as far as the consensus profile. Some analysts bandwagon, but It’s unlikely that many in the industry give a 6.31 type draft (instant starter grade) to someone who has limited stats in college (our argument) unless they see Beaucoup unrealized potential or a player in a system being mis-utilized or a combination thereof. Those type grades don’t get handed out lightly and generally come with elite college production.
     
    Last edited: May 9, 2019
  2. AmishMafia

    AmishMafia Cheesehead

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    Lots of excuses out there - not sure that explains it away.

    So 1400 snaps and he gets to the QB less than 10 times because on 1390 plays the gameplan dictated he wasnt supposed to get a sack? Still doesnt add up to me. I hope he is the real deal, but I dont think the armchair GMs watching YouTube
    highlights gives an accurate crosssection of his play.
     
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  3. AmishMafia

    AmishMafia Cheesehead

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    There is risk on every draft pick and players bust in the top 12 every year. It's not always a failure of the front office, often it is a calculated risk. Gary is a risk, make no mistake about it. He has off the chart athleticism, but has a lack of production but there are a bunch of excuses.

    If the excuses are legitimate, we come out with an impact player at an important position. Else, we wasted a pick. It's a calculated move.
     
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  4. GleefulGary

    GleefulGary Cheesehead

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    Yes, we do know. We can watch the tape, and I've mentioned it multiple times. Gary lined up as a 6 covering the C Gap. That's not a position where one racks up a lot of stats.
     
  5. OldSchool101

    OldSchool101 Peerless Beer, Lacrosse WI

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    Of course players fail, they’re humans that’s a given. But a “bunch of excuses” come with multiple negative connotations. I would be willing to bet we didn’t just “happen” upon Rashan Gary. As a GM and draft team you either believe in a player or you don’t.

    As fans, we can’t accurately guarantee a players demise before it happens any more than we can project their success. But in the meantime we’re left with the reality he’s our pick and our GM sais he’s worth a #12. We can choose to beat ourselves up all we want but all that accomplishes is being disappointed ahead of time.

    Im in the camp of choosing to be disappointed once he fails, not before he ever sees his first practice. The only difference is you’ll either be disappointed until you’re wrong... or you’ll be disappointed longer than I was because you started practicing disappointment earlier if he flops. I hope neither of us experiences the latter.
     
    Last edited: May 10, 2019
  6. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    The Packers could cut Bulaga to save some significant cap space if they feel confident about having an adequate replacement entering this season. I don't expect that to happen though.

    I really appreciate your optimism.

    Nevertheless there's still the possibility of Gary and other players picked early in the first round to become a bust in the NFL.

    You watched all of Gary's 1,332 snaps in college???
     
  7. AmishMafia

    AmishMafia Cheesehead

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    i cant disagree with any of that. I think I'm one of the most optimistic people on this board. I think some are a little overboard on dismissing the lack of production.

    Heres how I see things: physical ability and talent are easy to judge. Physical ability is the only thing that cant be taught. The one thing we cant determine is commitment. These kids are going from poverty in some cases to multi millionaires. Is the level of commitment going to increase? It must to succeed.

    People wonder how many teams missed on Richard Sherman. Why didnt they see he was a great player? Well, he wasnt a great player. He became a great player because he worked his butt off on his skills. Our own Kenny Clark was a projection. There were 2 or 3 better DTs we could have taken but Clark rose above all of them because of his high level of commitment.

    Every year there are 20 WRs that have more physical talent than Jerry Rice coming out in the draft. Yet they all fall short, because Rice was legendary for his commitment and year round work.

    How do you predict how committed a player is going to be? That is the biggest factor, IMHO, on predicting bust or probowls.

    So I have not sat down with Gary and I'm just going with taped interviews. Early in the draft process I saw an interview with him and he was talking about his business he started. To me, I thought he spoke more excitedly about his business than football. It made me question his love/commitment to football. The amount of work and ability to overcome pain and adversity is extreme. Will he succeed? I truly hope so, I will absolutely be rooting for him.

    I know Packer brass believes in him, but the ego of coaches thinking they can coach them up sometimes gets GMs in trouble.
     
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  8. GleefulGary

    GleefulGary Cheesehead

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    Context does not equal excuses.
     
  9. GleefulGary

    GleefulGary Cheesehead

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    Nope. And I didn't insinuate that I did either. I'm just talking about 2018, and his primary role in that season.
     
  10. AmishMafia

    AmishMafia Cheesehead

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    That would be acceptable if you want to explain his lack of interceptions. But he did play at the line of scrimmage and the defensive objective is to stop whoever has the ball. And on 670 pass plays during college he only managed to sack the QB 1.5% of the time. Odds are he had a few opportunities per game. Maybe the coaches didnt want him to sack the QB and wanted the glory for other players. But I bet if the Michigan coaches felt that Gary was effective pass rusher, they would have featured him more.
     
  11. gbgary

    gbgary Cheesehead

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    ha! i hear ya but i AM being optimistic. this season they've got a good mix of experience and youth, a roster built with more free-agent cap money than anything in their recent history, 2 first-round impact rookies, a QB with a brand new chip (to add to his genga-game's-worth of chips he already has) on his 35 year old shoulders, a coach with a new system who's ready to prove he's the man, and a front office willing to provide what's needed (except for low-balling darren rizzi lol).
     
    Last edited: May 11, 2019
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  12. Mondio

    Mondio Cheesehead

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    I struggle with this too. I wonder why there wasn't the production in the stat sheet from a guy with that many of the measurables in his favor. In college, just being a better athlete means you win most of the time in one on one's. it's why superb athletes fail in the NFL so many times, because their work ethic was never developed and their technique sucks. When they can no longer just out athlete the guy across from them and have to actually work at the finer points, they fade away.

    When I see an amazing athlete that didn't dominate in college I wonder why? Truth be told, I don't watch MI. I can barely watch the Badgers, and I like them. But from the little I have seen of him, he looks good. I don't know why his stats weren't better, as he looks like he can do it all really. So maybe it is what they asked him to do? It would seem unlikely, but then I thought Kenny Clark and Mike Daniels could have been disruptive forces and Dom Capers kept them at the LOS taking up space instead of using their abilities to attack.

    I guess at this point, I just hope he gets 10+ sacks his first year and has a 12 year career at least and sets a new Packer Record for most career sacks :) We're going to find out what he has. What he was doesn't matter anymore.
     
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  13. OldSchool101

    OldSchool101 Peerless Beer, Lacrosse WI

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    One thought I heard in an unrelated discussion on NFL radio today was that Coaches or Hiring personnel often don’t just follow stat sheets so much as us fans do. They may look at QB and see the full picture. They do what they’re told, they go through the progressions properly, the run the plays consistently that come in and they make good adjustments. They work hard in practice and they have shown in scrimmage they are accurate or have a powerful arm. They are quick to learn a playbook. They are good motivators. They don’t miss practice, they get there early and they work late. I believe we don’t know the half of judging potential, if us fans could project players that good we’d have long ago been working for a top tier football program. It’s fun to look at a stat sheet, but’s in many cases it’s only half of the story.

    These are all intangibles not on a stat sheet but a confident HC may recognize similar attributes from previous successes. He essentially knows that just because he threw 19TDs and 24INT there is unrealized potential. The rest of us fans scream bloody murder. Then Brett Favre emerges and becomes iron man and takes over games
     
    Last edited: May 10, 2019
  14. hasamikun

    hasamikun Cheesehead

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    It incredibly annoying that people still come up with the "lack of production". I am no pro-anaylist, but what I saw from some tape, he was (at least)double-teamed for many many snaps.
    Players like Bush and Whinovich benefitted from this. Gary is a big scheme fit for the Pettine-defense and now has an incredible deep front seven. He isnt the only monster there and will get more production. I am not saying that he will be an all-pro in his first season, but the production arguement is weak and was proven useless
     
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  15. Sunshinepacker

    Sunshinepacker Cheesehead

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    EVERY first round player that can rush the passer was double teamed. This pretense that somehow Gary was the only guy that was double teamed and that's why he didn't produce is ridiculous.
     
  16. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    I highly doubt Gary's primary role was freeing up others to make a play. It's possible that he will develop into a great player in the NFL but there's no doubt his lack of production at the college level is reason for concern.

    I don't disagree with any of your points in this post but in my opinion the window for the Packers doesn't close after the 2019 season.

    That's definitely true with part of it being that fans don't have access to as much information as front office personnel. Nevertheless they end up missing in the draft as well.
     
  17. GleefulGary

    GleefulGary Cheesehead

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    Charlie Partridge (Michigan coach): “Rashan is able to play multiple positions on the defensive line,” he says, “but other people can’t play multiple positions on the D-line. So for the team, we didn’t ask him to line up on the open side and rush the passer. We asked him to line up inside the tight end and knock the crap out of the tight end and stop the run. Because college is a lot different than the pro game. You’ve got so much quarterback-driven run, so much tight end run. He did that better than anyone in the country. You can’t tell me that you can find somebody in the country that was better at knocking the crap out of the tight end and stopping the front-side run game. He had so many tackles on front-side, tight zone and power, and all that stuff. He completely took the play away. If people would actually look at it and notice, teams started running weak (side) against us all the time. They started attacking us weak because of what he was doing on the tight end side. So his production was very much related to what we asked him to do in the scheme.”

    Greg Mattison (current DC at Ohio State, prior UM DL coach): Mattison says Gary should be judged not on his numbers, but how he lifted Michigan’s defensive front. “There’s a reason,” he explains, “why Chase Winovich had a whole bunch of sacks.”

    Is Gary's lack of production a concern? Yes, absolutely. Did his role in the defense have something to do with his stats? Yes, absolutely.

    Watch the tape Wimm.
     
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  18. gbgary

    gbgary Cheesehead

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    i didn't say the window closes...but the opening sure gets narrower.
     
  19. OldSchool101

    OldSchool101 Peerless Beer, Lacrosse WI

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    I was just reading this thread and thinking about the responses here and online about Rashan. He’s obviously largely a “projection” athlete.

    There are several players in this draft that have what I would call elite-potential. The most notable are guys like Quinnen (my favorite) and Bosa etc.. but Rashan Gary has a similar potential at much less draft capital cost. Gary is largely a young and undeveloped player and his stats show that (3 yrs stats) by comparison. But had he had double digit sacks for 2 years running? there’s not even a remote chance that he slides to us at #12 He’d easily be a top 3 overall non QB after his stellar combine results came in.

    So in a strange sense, I’m glad he doesn’t have the stats because no way does he sport a GB Jersey if he has huge stats. He could absolutely be an average type 1st rounder and just be serviceable as a starter, which I think is his floor. (I don’t really see people disagreeing with that).
    He has the ceiling of a top 5 selection overall in many drafts but at a fraction of the cost. The draft is like the stock market, you don’t get guarantees.. not even at #1.

    After watching several highlight reels of him.. I see similarities of a young Nick Perry in their playing styles, but he looks like the turbo version of Nick. My bigger concern for him playing in various systems is making sure he gets utilized properly to fit his strengths. I believe in GB, Pettine has an above average knack for utilizing players property to their strengths. Look at what he’s done with Fackrell..He made an incredible jump and if he can put Kyler in a position to go double digits? He’s going to absolutely kill it with Rashan, but don’t expect Rashan to get pushed around like a rag doll like Fackrell did his rookie season.
     
    Last edited: May 13, 2019
  20. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    I don't see any point in watching highlight tapes of Gary and afterwards proclaim to have an educated guess about a prospect's outlook entering the league like so many posters around here do.

    Let me be clear about it, I don't expect Gary to be a bust as he has a ton of potential. There's no doubt that his lack of production in college is reason for concern and there's absolutely nothing you can do about it to change my mind.

    The Packers need Rodgers to perform at an elite level to be considered a legit contender. As long as he's capable of doing that the window is open.

    Fackrell getting double-digit sacks was an anomaly, don't expect him to get anywhere close to that number anytime soon again.
     
  21. Mondio

    Mondio Cheesehead

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    darn right we need Rodgers to perform at an elite level, he's practically the highest paid man in the league he better be playing like one of the best too.
     
  22. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    I fully expect Rodgers to perform at an elite level as long as he stays healthy next season.
     
  23. GleefulGary

    GleefulGary Cheesehead

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    Wimm...you do know it's very easily possible to watch film of a prospect that isn't a highlight tape, right?

    But if film, his own coaches talking about it, Gary talking about it, the GB Packers talking about it isn't enough to convince you...then man, you just don't want to be convinced.
     
  24. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    You have access to All-22 camera tape of most of Gary's snaps during his college career at Michigan???

    What do you expect Gary, his Michigan coaches and the Packers to tell you??? Of course they will praise him at this point but that doesn't change the fact that his lack of production in college is a concern.

    Gary performing at a high level for the Packers is the only thing that would eliminate those for me.
     
  25. GleefulGary

    GleefulGary Cheesehead

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    Again, no, I have not watched all of Gary's career. I did watch a few full games from the 2018 season. Those aren't highlights, bubba.

    Obviously Gary's coaches are going to typically say positive things...but what they're saying, the tape backs up. And to be frank, no, I don't expect his former coach to flat out say that Gary is the reason another player got his good stats.

    This is going to end up like last year, when you were insistent that Josh Jackson was good in press man coverage bc of PFF...and how exactly did that turn out again?
     

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