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<blockquote data-quote="Dantés" data-source="post: 904063" data-attributes="member: 12283"><p>I think where we are talking past each other is in regards to the bolded statement.</p><p></p><p>The idea of identifying outliers is not that it makes it clear who to draft, or that it means production/tape doesn't matter.</p><p></p><p>It's taking the entire pool of draft eligible players (especially those in consideration in the top 100) and identifying the ~5% of those players who profile in ways that rarely, if ever, hit in the NFL in the way that you'd want that player to hit if you took him in the top 100.</p><p></p><p>So you're still left with ~95% of the class, and those guys should not be ranked by mere athletic testing, but by their entire profile, with tape being the most important part of that profile. </p><p></p><p>Think of it this way:</p><p></p><p>Players who look very, very good on tape in college football routinely fail in the NFL. </p><p></p><p>Why does that happen? </p><p></p><p>Well it's more than just these reasons, but sometimes it's injury, sometimes it's off-field, sometimes it's athleticism or strength or size issues.</p><p></p><p>Teams regularly eliminate or significantly drop prospects because of durability concerns, trying to avoid guys who will bust because they can't stay healthy.</p><p></p><p>Teams regularly eliminate or significantly drop prospects because of off-field concerns, trying to avoid guys who will bust because they're knuckleheads, or just no committed.</p><p></p><p>And teams do (and should) eliminate or significantly drop prospects because they fall below thresholds of athleticism, size, and/or strength that tend to translate to the NFL. When I talk about "thresholds" in this sense, I don't mean only selecting for elite athletes. I mean a low bar, below which you almost never see NFL success.</p><p></p><p>So for example, Asante Samuel Jr. is a 5'10" 180# average athlete. I probably wouldn't draft that at #29, but I would <em>definitely </em>not scratch his name. Because nothing about being 5'10", 180 lbs, or an average athlete has said you are significantly unlikely to succeed in the NFL. </p><p></p><p>Similarly, Trevon Moehrig came in at 6'0" 205# and tested like a good, not great athlete. I would 100% consider him at #29 because his tape is reportedly so good. </p><p></p><p>All of this to say, the point is not to blindly take the best athletes, but to be very cautious about the ones that so rarely translate.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Dantés, post: 904063, member: 12283"] I think where we are talking past each other is in regards to the bolded statement. The idea of identifying outliers is not that it makes it clear who to draft, or that it means production/tape doesn't matter. It's taking the entire pool of draft eligible players (especially those in consideration in the top 100) and identifying the ~5% of those players who profile in ways that rarely, if ever, hit in the NFL in the way that you'd want that player to hit if you took him in the top 100. So you're still left with ~95% of the class, and those guys should not be ranked by mere athletic testing, but by their entire profile, with tape being the most important part of that profile. Think of it this way: Players who look very, very good on tape in college football routinely fail in the NFL. Why does that happen? Well it's more than just these reasons, but sometimes it's injury, sometimes it's off-field, sometimes it's athleticism or strength or size issues. Teams regularly eliminate or significantly drop prospects because of durability concerns, trying to avoid guys who will bust because they can't stay healthy. Teams regularly eliminate or significantly drop prospects because of off-field concerns, trying to avoid guys who will bust because they're knuckleheads, or just no committed. And teams do (and should) eliminate or significantly drop prospects because they fall below thresholds of athleticism, size, and/or strength that tend to translate to the NFL. When I talk about "thresholds" in this sense, I don't mean only selecting for elite athletes. I mean a low bar, below which you almost never see NFL success. So for example, Asante Samuel Jr. is a 5'10" 180# average athlete. I probably wouldn't draft that at #29, but I would [I]definitely [/I]not scratch his name. Because nothing about being 5'10", 180 lbs, or an average athlete has said you are significantly unlikely to succeed in the NFL. Similarly, Trevon Moehrig came in at 6'0" 205# and tested like a good, not great athlete. I would 100% consider him at #29 because his tape is reportedly so good. All of this to say, the point is not to blindly take the best athletes, but to be very cautious about the ones that so rarely translate. [/QUOTE]
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