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<blockquote data-quote="adambr2" data-source="post: 618494" data-attributes="member: 7277"><p>Taking the aborted 2 point tries out of the equation is indeed important as that just throws off the true data if they're included, just as I believed the same about considering all 32-33 yard FGs instead of just straight ones. </p><p></p><p>I do see where you're coming from, I guess my main point is that even when just considering all statistical evidence and assuming that no momentum shift takes place after a early miss, the remaining margin either way is just so minimal and could swing either way depending on a few different factors, that I can't really argue with it one way or another. </p><p></p><p>McCarthy's interpretation of the statistics based on the homework I assume he's done is that the XP is still the better play. Personally, I find it really tough to conclude either way based on the sample sizes that we have. I expect that most coaches (for now) will err on the side of familiarity and stick with the extra point until they have stronger evidence that it's the weaker play.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="adambr2, post: 618494, member: 7277"] Taking the aborted 2 point tries out of the equation is indeed important as that just throws off the true data if they're included, just as I believed the same about considering all 32-33 yard FGs instead of just straight ones. I do see where you're coming from, I guess my main point is that even when just considering all statistical evidence and assuming that no momentum shift takes place after a early miss, the remaining margin either way is just so minimal and could swing either way depending on a few different factors, that I can't really argue with it one way or another. McCarthy's interpretation of the statistics based on the homework I assume he's done is that the XP is still the better play. Personally, I find it really tough to conclude either way based on the sample sizes that we have. I expect that most coaches (for now) will err on the side of familiarity and stick with the extra point until they have stronger evidence that it's the weaker play. [/QUOTE]
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