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<blockquote data-quote="adambr2" data-source="post: 618477" data-attributes="member: 7277"><p>That's really not true, there is statistical evidence both ways, it's just a matter of how one chooses to interpret the evidence and what size sample size you choose to look at. With the sample size I gave, extra points come out ahead. With the one you gave, the 2 comes out ahead.</p><p> </p><p>If you look at last season, the new extra point comes out ahead (.967 expected vs. .966) based on .967 on 32-33 yard FGs and 48.3% on the 2).</p><p></p><p>If you look at the last 3 seasons, the 2 point comes out ahead .972 vs .944.</p><p></p><p>However, this FG data takes all FGs into account regardless of placement. Your data from PFF on FGs since 1998 I assume also does not take ball placement on the field into account. With the new extra point, it's reasonable to believe that the percentage will be higher as kickers will be able to kick from the center and not forced to kick from the hashes. PFF has FGs from the center from a 30-35 range made at a .976 percentage the last 2 years, which would beat pretty much any multi-year sample for the 2 on expected points. <a href="http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/169212/inside-slant-nfls-new-pat-rule-unlikely-to-make-big-impact" target="_blank">http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/169212/inside-slant-nfls-new-pat-rule-unlikely-to-make-big-impact</a></p><p></p><p>There is a lot of data on this that can be interpreted to show that either decision is advantageous depending on how you want to look at it. There simply isn't enough definite evidence yet to make a definite conclusion about which is the better percentage play going forward, and probably won't be until we get several years of the new rule.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="adambr2, post: 618477, member: 7277"] That's really not true, there is statistical evidence both ways, it's just a matter of how one chooses to interpret the evidence and what size sample size you choose to look at. With the sample size I gave, extra points come out ahead. With the one you gave, the 2 comes out ahead. If you look at last season, the new extra point comes out ahead (.967 expected vs. .966) based on .967 on 32-33 yard FGs and 48.3% on the 2). If you look at the last 3 seasons, the 2 point comes out ahead .972 vs .944. However, this FG data takes all FGs into account regardless of placement. Your data from PFF on FGs since 1998 I assume also does not take ball placement on the field into account. With the new extra point, it's reasonable to believe that the percentage will be higher as kickers will be able to kick from the center and not forced to kick from the hashes. PFF has FGs from the center from a 30-35 range made at a .976 percentage the last 2 years, which would beat pretty much any multi-year sample for the 2 on expected points. [URL]http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/169212/inside-slant-nfls-new-pat-rule-unlikely-to-make-big-impact[/URL] There is a lot of data on this that can be interpreted to show that either decision is advantageous depending on how you want to look at it. There simply isn't enough definite evidence yet to make a definite conclusion about which is the better percentage play going forward, and probably won't be until we get several years of the new rule. [/QUOTE]
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