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<blockquote data-quote="adambr2" data-source="post: 618430" data-attributes="member: 7277"><p>I don't know if you can necessarily correlate the success of an offense to how well they are going to convert 2 point conversions. Even looking at success rates for runs inside the 2, a regular offensive play from the 2 is really only comparable to a 2 point conversion if it's 4th down. It's a bit different mentality if they have multiple downs to get in versus one play. </p><p></p><p>Here's some charts on the success rate of the 2: <a href="http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/team-two-point-conversion-statistics/2014/" target="_blank">http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/team-two-point-conversion-statistics/2014/</a></p><p></p><p>There's not a strong correlation between a good offense and high success rate. The Bears and Steelers had a perfect success rate, as did the Vikings and Bills. Look back in previous years and the trend is pretty much the same. That said, you could argue that the sample size is small and you might see a bigger correlation if the 2 point conversion became a regular part of the game.</p><p></p><p>Since the 2 point conversion came to the NFL, the success rate is only 44.79%, or just under .9 expected points, where an extra point is still somewhere in the .95 to .97 range. </p><p></p><p>Even if you assume the success rate should be a bit better now in the modern offensive happy NFL, I still don't see the evidence that a 2 offers better odds or that it is at worst anything more than a wash.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="adambr2, post: 618430, member: 7277"] I don't know if you can necessarily correlate the success of an offense to how well they are going to convert 2 point conversions. Even looking at success rates for runs inside the 2, a regular offensive play from the 2 is really only comparable to a 2 point conversion if it's 4th down. It's a bit different mentality if they have multiple downs to get in versus one play. Here's some charts on the success rate of the 2: [URL]http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/team-two-point-conversion-statistics/2014/[/URL] There's not a strong correlation between a good offense and high success rate. The Bears and Steelers had a perfect success rate, as did the Vikings and Bills. Look back in previous years and the trend is pretty much the same. That said, you could argue that the sample size is small and you might see a bigger correlation if the 2 point conversion became a regular part of the game. Since the 2 point conversion came to the NFL, the success rate is only 44.79%, or just under .9 expected points, where an extra point is still somewhere in the .95 to .97 range. Even if you assume the success rate should be a bit better now in the modern offensive happy NFL, I still don't see the evidence that a 2 offers better odds or that it is at worst anything more than a wash. [/QUOTE]
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