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<blockquote data-quote="LargeRon" data-source="post: 424016" data-attributes="member: 6148"><p>The numbers that are really statistically significant are the averaged differentials for the season. Those differentials are what correct for large anomalies and account for each teams strength of opponent. I messed around with weighting different factors and doing them as a summation but the unweighted values predicted historical scores for this season better. Big play and turn over differentials also worked better by just making them an up or down and using them as corroborative data rather than trying to make them predictive. I don't think extending the data past a single season would make sense. It would be tough to account for changing team dynamics like Indianapolis losing Manning. Of course that is a good argument against all attempts to use running statistic analysis to predict sporting event outcomes. Both teams played significantly different last season. I think the Giants improved on offense by continuing a heavy focus on run and developing a big play threat with Cruze. Green Bay on the other hand focused on honing their big play threats (note the plural nature) on offense and developing a defense that applies just enough pass rush pressure to entice the opposition to attempt the long ball, while trying to position DBs correctly to jump the routes. It has certainly resulted GB giving up a lot more big plays, but its basic design has worked well and resulted in GB racking up 31 team interceptions this season.</p><p> </p><p>While the game isn't played on a calculator, running these calculations using running total differentials (starting at week 3 when the numbers become statistically significant) does a fairly good job of predicting game outcomes. Of course "any given Sunday" is always a factor, but I would rather rely on numbers that have statistical significance rather than "my team has a hot defense" as a metric. I won't even go into just how stupid comparing this game to the 07 game is except to mention that you have substantially the same defensive and offensive leaders from that year, and GB is a substantially different team in offensive and defensive leadership, and with the current team has beat NYG twice in as many match-ups.</p><p> </p><p>Ron</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="LargeRon, post: 424016, member: 6148"] The numbers that are really statistically significant are the averaged differentials for the season. Those differentials are what correct for large anomalies and account for each teams strength of opponent. I messed around with weighting different factors and doing them as a summation but the unweighted values predicted historical scores for this season better. Big play and turn over differentials also worked better by just making them an up or down and using them as corroborative data rather than trying to make them predictive. I don't think extending the data past a single season would make sense. It would be tough to account for changing team dynamics like Indianapolis losing Manning. Of course that is a good argument against all attempts to use running statistic analysis to predict sporting event outcomes. Both teams played significantly different last season. I think the Giants improved on offense by continuing a heavy focus on run and developing a big play threat with Cruze. Green Bay on the other hand focused on honing their big play threats (note the plural nature) on offense and developing a defense that applies just enough pass rush pressure to entice the opposition to attempt the long ball, while trying to position DBs correctly to jump the routes. It has certainly resulted GB giving up a lot more big plays, but its basic design has worked well and resulted in GB racking up 31 team interceptions this season. While the game isn't played on a calculator, running these calculations using running total differentials (starting at week 3 when the numbers become statistically significant) does a fairly good job of predicting game outcomes. Of course "any given Sunday" is always a factor, but I would rather rely on numbers that have statistical significance rather than "my team has a hot defense" as a metric. I won't even go into just how stupid comparing this game to the 07 game is except to mention that you have substantially the same defensive and offensive leaders from that year, and GB is a substantially different team in offensive and defensive leadership, and with the current team has beat NYG twice in as many match-ups. Ron [/QUOTE]
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