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<blockquote data-quote="LargeRon" data-source="post: 423976" data-attributes="member: 6148"><p>On average Green Bay allowed opponents to score just 1 point above their season ppg avg, while scoring 9.7 points more than the oppositions season points allowed average. The giants on average held opponents to a score 2 points below their season ppg average but only scored 2 points over their opponents points allowed averages. When you give up points very close to your opponents average and outscore their average points allowed significantly, you usually win. The Packers 15-1 record speaks for the truth of it as much as the Giants 9-7 record speaks to losing nearly as many as you win when your ratios are so nearly even.</p><p> </p><p>I hear a lot of Giants fans pointing out that the Giants have been hot lately. Well technically speaking they scored 9.6 and 9.1 points above their final two opponents scoring averages (and 5, 10.9, 3 and 14.8 below their opponents in the 4 games before that). Green Bay on the other hand only scored below their opponents average points allowed twice the whole season (at Atlanta and at Kansas City). In fact in 4 of GB's final 5 games they scored 13, 18.9, 13.7 and 20.8 points above the average those opponents gave up for the season. 3rd grade math will tell you which team is hot and which is not. Did I mention that two of those were against teams in the playoffs? (13 vs NYG and 20.8 vs. DET) Perhaps I failed to note that one of them (20.8) was with a back up QB playing.</p><p> </p><p>Statistically the Giants and Packers had very similar schedules if you only look at their opponents scoring averages. Both teams played 10 teams who averaged over 22 ppg. However, GB played 6 games (NO, DEN, ATL, DET x2, and NYG) against eventual playoff teams and won them all, with NYG playing only 4 games against playoff bound opponents, losing 3 of those (GB, NO, SF).</p><p> </p><p>A head to head calculation of ((GB avg ppg + NYG avg points allowed differential) + (GB ppg differential + NYG avg points allowed))/2 vs. ((NYG avg ppg + GB avg points allowed differential) + (NYG ppg differential + GB avg points allowed))/2 results in a prediction of a Green Bay win 36 - 25. The +24 to +7 turn over differential as well as an even big play differential split also support this prediction.</p><p> </p><p>Ron</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="LargeRon, post: 423976, member: 6148"] On average Green Bay allowed opponents to score just 1 point above their season ppg avg, while scoring 9.7 points more than the oppositions season points allowed average. The giants on average held opponents to a score 2 points below their season ppg average but only scored 2 points over their opponents points allowed averages. When you give up points very close to your opponents average and outscore their average points allowed significantly, you usually win. The Packers 15-1 record speaks for the truth of it as much as the Giants 9-7 record speaks to losing nearly as many as you win when your ratios are so nearly even. I hear a lot of Giants fans pointing out that the Giants have been hot lately. Well technically speaking they scored 9.6 and 9.1 points above their final two opponents scoring averages (and 5, 10.9, 3 and 14.8 below their opponents in the 4 games before that). Green Bay on the other hand only scored below their opponents average points allowed twice the whole season (at Atlanta and at Kansas City). In fact in 4 of GB's final 5 games they scored 13, 18.9, 13.7 and 20.8 points above the average those opponents gave up for the season. 3rd grade math will tell you which team is hot and which is not. Did I mention that two of those were against teams in the playoffs? (13 vs NYG and 20.8 vs. DET) Perhaps I failed to note that one of them (20.8) was with a back up QB playing. Statistically the Giants and Packers had very similar schedules if you only look at their opponents scoring averages. Both teams played 10 teams who averaged over 22 ppg. However, GB played 6 games (NO, DEN, ATL, DET x2, and NYG) against eventual playoff teams and won them all, with NYG playing only 4 games against playoff bound opponents, losing 3 of those (GB, NO, SF). A head to head calculation of ((GB avg ppg + NYG avg points allowed differential) + (GB ppg differential + NYG avg points allowed))/2 vs. ((NYG avg ppg + GB avg points allowed differential) + (NYG ppg differential + GB avg points allowed))/2 results in a prediction of a Green Bay win 36 - 25. The +24 to +7 turn over differential as well as an even big play differential split also support this prediction. Ron [/QUOTE]
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