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OFFICIAL DEFENSIVE ISSUES THREAD
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<blockquote data-quote="TJV" data-source="post: 420062" data-attributes="member: 4300"><p><span style="font-family: 'Tahoma'"><span style="color: #000000">I hesitate to immediately dismiss any theory on why the defense has slipped so far this year because I have to confess it's a mystery to me. Even so I think the lockout should have been more beneficial to the Packers, including their defense, than most other teams. Consider all the teams that had new HCs and/or assistant coaches and/or new personnel to incorporate into their schemes. None of that was true for the Packers. Not only that, but because they played in the Super Bowl, the Packers and Steelers had the advantage as the teams which most recently were able to hold practices before the lockout. The Packers had more tape to "self-scout" with than any other team except the Steelers. So IMO the idea that the lockout prevented the Packers from evaluating their LBs is exactly wrong - the lockout provided them with more time for self-evaluation, not less. Not only that but all of their LBs returned from the previous season. They made the decision to go with Hawk and Bishop long before the lockout. And they witnessed a D with both Zombo and Walden at ROLB have success. So while I'm not sure why the D has surrendered so many yards and given up more points/game I can't find a logical way to tie that to the lockout. </span></span></p><p> </p><p><span style="font-family: 'Tahoma'"><span style="color: #000000">Certainly losing Jenkins to FA and Collins to injury hurt the defense. But I don't think that tells the whole story. The off season and the lockout gave opponents a lot of time to analyze Capers' D but I don't think that tells the whole story, either. </span></span></p><p> </p><p><span style="font-family: 'Tahoma'"><span style="color: #000000">For example, should we assume Shields' play last year was a one-time event and he'll never reach that level of play again? Or is he just suffering from a "sophomore slump"? No question in my mind he's not playing as well as he did last season. I expected him to play better this year than last and I still think he has the potential to be special, but he hasn't realized that potential yet IMO. Tramon Williams was hurt early in the season but even after getting healthy he hasn't been the shut-down CB he was last year. Is that <em>just</em> because of the absence of Collins? I don’t think so but I can't explain the decline in his play, either. Certainly less pressure on opposing QBs puts more pressure on the secondary but again, I don’t think that tells the whole story…</span></span></p><p> </p><p><span style="font-family: 'Tahoma'"><span style="color: #000000">I don't think the Packers have the worst D in the league, so IMO saying they went from the 2nd ranked D to the 32nd ranked D is misleading. Certainly the D isn't playing up to last year's level but I don't think it's as bad as the yardage surrendered stats indicate. I think it was mentioned on last Sunday's telecast - if not I heard it somewhere - that since Dom Capers came to Green Bay, the Packers defense has taken the ball away more than any other D in the league. That led me to looking up some numbers I think are relevant to this discussion. Regular season results:</span></span></p><p> </p><p><span style="font-family: 'Tahoma'"><span style="color: #000000">20<strong>09</strong>: 7th in points surrendered at 18.6/game; First in INTs at 30; 10 fumbles recovered for a total of 40 TOs. OQBR: 6th at 74.9.</span></span></p><p> </p><p><span style="font-family: 'Tahoma'"><span style="color: #000000">20<strong>10</strong>: 2nd in points surrendered at 15.0/game; Second in INTs at 25; 8 fumbles recovered for a total of 33 TOs. </span></span><span style="font-family: 'Tahoma'"><span style="color: #000000">OQBR: 2nd at 67.3.</span></span></p><p> </p><p><span style="font-family: 'Tahoma'"><span style="color: #000000">20<strong>11</strong>: 19th in points surrendered at 22.4/game; First in INTs at 31; 7 fumbles recovered for a total of 38 TOs. </span></span><span style="font-family: 'Tahoma'"><span style="color: #000000">OQBR: 9th at 80.5.</span></span></p><p> </p><p><span style="font-family: 'Tahoma'"><span style="color: #000000">All the stats came from nfl.com except for opponent's QB rating (OQBR) came from teamrankings.com. <u><a href="http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-average-team-passer-rating" target="_blank">LINK</a></u></span></span></p><p> </p><p><span style="font-family: 'Tahoma'"><span style="color: #000000">All the numbers except INTs are worse this season than in the two previous ones. In 3 seasons Capers' defenses have forced 111 turnovers in 48 regular season games. That's over 2 TOs per game and his Ds have met that mark <em>each</em> season. No matter how many yards they surrender, if they can take the ball away twice in each playoff game I don't think any team can beat them. (Yes, I know it's a big IF.) One last thought on this: I think we all agree the pass rush this year is the worst it's been under Capers. I am of the opinion that Shields and Williams haven't played this year as well as they did last year. Obviously Collins is/was their most talented safety and they miss him a lot. If all of that is true, why are the INTs up this season from the previous two? After careful scrutiny and a lot of thought I've come to this conclusion: I don't know. </span></span></p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="TJV, post: 420062, member: 4300"] [FONT=Tahoma][COLOR=#000000]I hesitate to immediately dismiss any theory on why the defense has slipped so far this year because I have to confess it's a mystery to me. Even so I think the lockout should have been more beneficial to the Packers, including their defense, than most other teams. Consider all the teams that had new HCs and/or assistant coaches and/or new personnel to incorporate into their schemes. None of that was true for the Packers. Not only that, but because they played in the Super Bowl, the Packers and Steelers had the advantage as the teams which most recently were able to hold practices before the lockout. The Packers had more tape to "self-scout" with than any other team except the Steelers. So IMO the idea that the lockout prevented the Packers from evaluating their LBs is exactly wrong - the lockout provided them with more time for self-evaluation, not less. Not only that but all of their LBs returned from the previous season. They made the decision to go with Hawk and Bishop long before the lockout. And they witnessed a D with both Zombo and Walden at ROLB have success. So while I'm not sure why the D has surrendered so many yards and given up more points/game I can't find a logical way to tie that to the lockout. [/COLOR][/FONT] [FONT=Tahoma][COLOR=#000000]Certainly losing Jenkins to FA and Collins to injury hurt the defense. But I don't think that tells the whole story. The off season and the lockout gave opponents a lot of time to analyze Capers' D but I don't think that tells the whole story, either. [/COLOR][/FONT] [FONT=Tahoma][COLOR=#000000]For example, should we assume Shields' play last year was a one-time event and he'll never reach that level of play again? Or is he just suffering from a "sophomore slump"? No question in my mind he's not playing as well as he did last season. I expected him to play better this year than last and I still think he has the potential to be special, but he hasn't realized that potential yet IMO. Tramon Williams was hurt early in the season but even after getting healthy he hasn't been the shut-down CB he was last year. Is that [I]just[/I] because of the absence of Collins? I don’t think so but I can't explain the decline in his play, either. Certainly less pressure on opposing QBs puts more pressure on the secondary but again, I don’t think that tells the whole story…[/COLOR][/FONT] [FONT=Tahoma][COLOR=#000000]I don't think the Packers have the worst D in the league, so IMO saying they went from the 2nd ranked D to the 32nd ranked D is misleading. Certainly the D isn't playing up to last year's level but I don't think it's as bad as the yardage surrendered stats indicate. I think it was mentioned on last Sunday's telecast - if not I heard it somewhere - that since Dom Capers came to Green Bay, the Packers defense has taken the ball away more than any other D in the league. That led me to looking up some numbers I think are relevant to this discussion. Regular season results:[/COLOR][/FONT] [FONT=Tahoma][COLOR=#000000]20[B]09[/B]: 7th in points surrendered at 18.6/game; First in INTs at 30; 10 fumbles recovered for a total of 40 TOs. OQBR: 6th at 74.9.[/COLOR][/FONT] [FONT=Tahoma][COLOR=#000000]20[B]10[/B]: 2nd in points surrendered at 15.0/game; Second in INTs at 25; 8 fumbles recovered for a total of 33 TOs. [/COLOR][/FONT][FONT=Tahoma][COLOR=#000000]OQBR: 2nd at 67.3.[/COLOR][/FONT] [FONT=Tahoma][COLOR=#000000]20[B]11[/B]: 19th in points surrendered at 22.4/game; First in INTs at 31; 7 fumbles recovered for a total of 38 TOs. [/COLOR][/FONT][FONT=Tahoma][COLOR=#000000]OQBR: 9th at 80.5.[/COLOR][/FONT] [FONT=Tahoma][COLOR=#000000]All the stats came from nfl.com except for opponent's QB rating (OQBR) came from teamrankings.com. [U][URL='http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-average-team-passer-rating']LINK[/URL][/U][/COLOR][/FONT] [FONT=Tahoma][COLOR=#000000]All the numbers except INTs are worse this season than in the two previous ones. In 3 seasons Capers' defenses have forced 111 turnovers in 48 regular season games. That's over 2 TOs per game and his Ds have met that mark [I]each[/I] season. No matter how many yards they surrender, if they can take the ball away twice in each playoff game I don't think any team can beat them. (Yes, I know it's a big IF.) One last thought on this: I think we all agree the pass rush this year is the worst it's been under Capers. I am of the opinion that Shields and Williams haven't played this year as well as they did last year. Obviously Collins is/was their most talented safety and they miss him a lot. If all of that is true, why are the INTs up this season from the previous two? After careful scrutiny and a lot of thought I've come to this conclusion: I don't know. [/COLOR][/FONT] [/QUOTE]
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