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Offensive rank of remaining teams

Discussion in 'Green Bay Packers Fan Forum' started by adambr2, Jan 14, 2019.

  1. adambr2

    adambr2 Cheesehead

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    By points per game, regular season 2018.

    1) Chiefs
    2) Rams
    3) Saints
    4) Patriots

    Literally the 4 best offensive teams in the NFL are the 4 currently left standing.

    Meanwhile the top 4 defensive teams in points per game in 2018 were the Bears, Ravens, Titans and Jaguars.

    Good info for next time someone breaks out the silly cliche of "defense wins championship."
     
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  2. Pokerbrat2000

    Pokerbrat2000 Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.

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    Also, probably 4 of who are considered to be some of the top coaches in the NFL.

    Had to laugh at a comment by I think it was Aikman during the Rams game. Something like "McVay's coaching tree is so hot right now, if you have a drink with the guy, you are considered to be a good coaching candidate".
     
  3. XPack

    XPack Cheesehead

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    Rams have a good defence. Excepting Chiefs, rest are't by any stretch bad.
     
  4. Arod2gjdd

    Arod2gjdd Cheesehead

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    The best overall teams win.
     
  5. OldSchool101

    OldSchool101 Peerless Beer, Lacrosse WI

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    I predict the team that scores the most points each game goes all the way :tup:
     
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  6. adambr2

    adambr2 Cheesehead

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    Wasn't really my point, but the Rams are 19th in both points and yards allowed this year. The Patriots are the only team of these 4 even in the top 13 in the NFL in total defense in 2018.

    The point was that all 4 of these teams clearly got to this point on the back of an elite offense.
     
  7. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    And the 4 top seeds with interesting matchups. While that doesn't always equate to good football, it's about as good as you get going into the final four.
     
  8. Dantés

    Dantés Gute Loot

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    In terms of offensive and defensive DVOA the final four teams are:
    • 1st and 26th (KC)
    • 2nd and 19th (LAR)
    • 4th and 11th (NO)
    • 5th and 16th (NE)
    Last year, the results were:
    • 5th and 2nd (MIN)
    • 16th and 1st (JAC)
    • 8th and 5th (PHI)
    • 1st and 31st (NE)
    So this year, none of the best defenses make it to Championship week, and last year 3/4 were top 5. The conclusion, obviously, is that you simply have to be really good to make it there. Trying to say it's all about offense or defense is going to take in very different directions, year by year.
     
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  9. Pokerbrat2000

    Pokerbrat2000 Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.

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    Agree. If I had too choose, I would take a top 5 offense and settle for a top 10-15 defense, which is where I think the Packers are closer to being at some point.

    Now if you have a top 5 defense that can also take the ball away, as well as give you some occasional points, you can go a long way. Not sure what the Bears Offense was ranked in 1985, but that Defense seemed to win them most of their games. The irony of their 15-1 Season was that they threatened to join Miami as the only undefeated team to go the whole season undefeated and who beats them in their....13th game? Miami.
     
  10. rmontro

    rmontro Cheesehead

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    I saw this on Golic and Wingo this morning, it is an eye opener. The saying "Defense wins championships" used to be more true than it is now, the league has increasingly been moving towards emphasizing offense.

    I've wondered a few times about all those draft picks we've thrown at the defense, while the league has been working to make defense obsolete lol. It might have been more effective to focus on rebuilding to an elite offense like we used to have.
     
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  11. adambr2

    adambr2 Cheesehead

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    It's almost always slanted toward a top offense.

    Winning it all on the back of an elite defense without at least a well above average offense has been done, but it's incredibly rare. Denver comes to mind in recent memory, but not many others.

    Go back to the final 4 the previous year than the one you listed and the defenses were more just flat out bad than even average (Atlanta, New England, Green Bay, Pittsburgh).
     
  12. Dantés

    Dantés Gute Loot

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    Yeah and you go back to the year before that and the defenses were 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 11th.

    There's no magic formula. You just have to be really good.
     
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  13. rmontro

    rmontro Cheesehead

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    If you look at the Super Bowl winners up through 2005, every team that won had a top 10 defense (aside from the Raiders, who did it twice without a top 10 defense). A large number of those teams had the top one or two defense. After that, things started to get more sporadic.
     
  14. OldSchool101

    OldSchool101 Peerless Beer, Lacrosse WI

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    having a Defense that creates turnovers (not necessarily top ranking) and an Offense that scores points is a really good combination.
    I think Defensive rankings by itself doesn’t always paint a perfect picture.

    Defensive Takeaways Ratio Ranking 2018

    1. Seattle Hawks
    2. Houston Texans
    3. Chicago Bears
    4. LA Rams
    5. NE Patriots
    6. KC Chiefs
    7. NO Saints

    Having a Defense a. formidable in taking away the ball in conjunction with an Offense that b. takes care of the ball and an Offense that c. can score is also a major plus.






     
    Last edited: Jan 14, 2019
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  15. Ogsponge

    Ogsponge Cheesehead

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    Defensive champ/Offensive champ/def loser/off loser ranks of the past 10 champions

    And once again I, as I have in the past, will debunk the theory that defense wins championships is a “silly cliche” as most super bowl champions are well rounded teams.

    2017 Eagles 4th/3rd/5th/2nd
    2016 Patriots 1st/3rd/27th/1st
    2015 Broncos 4th/19th/6th/1st
    2014 Patriots 8th/4th/1st/10th
    2013 Seahawks 1st/9th/22nd/1st
    2012 Ravens 12th/10th/2nd/11th
    2011 Giants 25th/9th/15th/4th
    2010 Packers 2nd/10th/1st/12th
    2009 Saints 20th/1st/8th/7th
    2008 Steelers 1st/20th/28th/4th

    Avg defense 7.8, average offense 8.8/avg def loser 11.5/avg off loser/5.3
    #1 def champions: 3
    #1 off champions:1
    Top 5 def champions: 6
    Top 5 off champions: 4
    Top 5 def losers: 4
    Top 5 off losers: 6
    Bad def outlier champions: 2
    Bad off outlier champions: 2
    Champions with a top 10 off and def: 5
    Losers with a top 10 off and def: 4

    Imagine that, the average defense of the champions at 7.8 is not only better than their own offense at 8.8 but is also worse than the avg. offensive rank of the loser at 5.3 and is better than the average def rank of the loser at 11.5.

    Let’s call a ranking in the top 12 good to elite.

    Number of times a top 12 def was champion: 8
    Number of times a top 12 off was champion: 8
    Number of times a top 12 def was loser: 6
    Number of times a top 12 off was the loser: 10

    In conclusion, the stats easily support that the better your defense, the more likely you are to win the Super Bowl. Let’s stop pretending otherwise.
     
  16. PackerDNA

    PackerDNA Cheesehead

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    For me it's all about balance. Win the turnover and big play battles, and be a solid balance team in all three phases, and you're a dangerous team even when you're having an off-day.
     
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  17. OldSchool101

    OldSchool101 Peerless Beer, Lacrosse WI

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    First of all nice work. I like it. I agree with you in that NOT having a good rated Defense is a strict disadvantage in a Championship match.

    We can certainly deduce by your work that
    “well rounded teams win Championships”.

    My only beef would be when we say “Defense wins Championships” it implies that the Offense is not heavily factored. We know that in the last 10 years the average O that won a SB (the only thing that matters because that’s the end goal) average basically 1 position ranking higher (8.8 vs 7.8) than the Defense (thanks to your good work)
    Note: In any good experiment there should be a reasonable variance in the end result. 1 out of 32 (+-3%) is in that reasonable variance IMO.

    In essence and in layman’s terms with this argument we’re splitting hairs
     
    Last edited: Jan 15, 2019
  18. Croak

    Croak The stealthy one Moderator

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    Well, when all is said and done; I think it is pretty offensive that the Packers aren't in the top 4. :whistling:
     
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  19. Pokerbrat2000

    Pokerbrat2000 Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.

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    What gets you to the Super Bowl? Great offense, great defense?....just win baby!

    Interesting to read this today:

    This season will be the sixth in a row in which both Super Bowl participants had the luxury of a first-round bye. Nine of the last 10 teams to play for a title were 1-seeds.

    Here I thought all you needed to do was get into the playoffs to make the Super Bowl :D
     
  20. Mondio

    Mondio Cheesehead

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    I think the take home point is, Green Bay has to get better to get to the big game :)
     
  21. Ogsponge

    Ogsponge Cheesehead

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    For the record I was not attempting to say defense is more important. They are for the most part, equally important and having a good defense increases your odds. There will of course be outliers, in fact, looking at the data, we are about due for a bad defense to win it all and if the Rams or Chiefs take the crown, a bad (Rams) or a completely pathetic (Chiefs) defense will win it all. Or...a good defense (Patriots 7th) could still win it all :sick:

    I just get a little perturbed that every time we have historically good offenses at the end, some people start to believe as if defense doesn’t matter at all.
     
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  22. Pokerbrat2000

    Pokerbrat2000 Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.

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    Yup, they don’t just need to get back into the playoffs – they need to get back to lighting the league ablaze and dominating for the entire season. Personally, I think had they just limped into the playoffs this year, we wouldn't be seeing all these needed changes. Even Gute recognized that by firing McCarthy before the Packers were even officially eliminated from the Playoffs.
     
  23. Ogsponge

    Ogsponge Cheesehead

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    One other thing that kind of coincides with this, there was a perceived trend for awhile thanks in large part to 2 mediocre giants teams and the 2010 Packers, that “getting hot” at the very end of the season was the new way to win Super Bowls.

    This has also proven to be not true as for 6 seasons straight only teams with bye’s have reached championship weekend.
     
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  24. adambr2

    adambr2 Cheesehead

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    Let me clarify my original point, because it's being construed at times as to mean I think that defense isn't important and that having a strong defense isn't an edge over a team that doesn't have one. Obviously, it's an advantage.



    My point was simply this, based on the cliché of "defense wins championships".



    An elite, top 5 scoring offense, will almost always give you a chance to win it all. An elite defense on the other hand, can still be part of a bad team. An elite offense will almost always be on an above average team.



    Top 5 scoring offenses by year, all playoff teams bolded:



    2018: Chiefs, Rams, Saints, Patriots, Colts

    2017: Rams, Patriots, Eagles, Saints, Jaguars

    2016: Falcons, Saints, Patriots, Packers, Cowboys

    2015: Panthers, Cardinals, Patriots, Steelers, Seahawks

    2014: Packers, Broncos, Eagles, Patriots, Cowboys


    Top 5 scoring defenses by year, all playoff teams bolded:


    2018: Bears, Ravens, Titans, Jaguars, Texans

    2017: Vikings, Jaguars, Chargers, Eagles, Patriots

    2016: Patriots, Giants, Seahawks, Broncos, Cowboys

    2015: Seahawks, Bengals, Chiefs, Broncos, Vikings

    2014: Seahawks, Chiefs, Lions, Bills, Cardinals


    It is incredibly rare for a top 5 offense to be left out of the playoffs based on the last 5 years, at a 92% success rate. A top 5 defense, while obviously still successful, had only an 80% chance comparatively. Only 11 out of the last 25 top 5 defenses (44%) have even made it to the divisional round! On the offensive side, that stat is a whopping 22 out of 25! That's how important having a top 5 offense has become, while having a top 5 defense doesn't even necessarily equate to getting past your first opponent in the WC round.



    That's all I meant by saying that "defense wins championships" is dead. I wasn't implying that having a good defense isn't important or helpful, just that it pales in comparison to how far ahead an elite offense puts you on the totem pole these days.
     
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  25. Half Empty

    Half Empty Cheesehead

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    So the 2011 Pack was just ahead of its time? :)
     

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