I don't believe theses fines would be a deterrent as he could skip all camps, pay the fines somewhere between $1.5 & $2M, show up the week before of the first game and still make $35M for the year.
I definitely think there is some basic confusion about contracts and I am not professing to know everything about them, especially when there are hidden incentive, escalators, etc.
However I think the semantics are important and often confused. There is a difference between "making", "being paid", "already paid", "earned", etc. So when people say "AR will "make" $35M this season, it really isn't being factual or totally accurate. First, he was given a ton of upfront money, in signing bonuses and guarantees. This was right around $100 M and since much of it has already been paid to him, he has already "made it". He is not being paid/making that this season.
Maybe best to look at what the current year of his contract looks like and let that explain it
$11,500,000 (already paid, this is just cap accounting)
:$6,800,000 (paid out on 3/19/21)
$2,852,000 (again, cap accounting)
$850,000 (paid incentives this year, but earned last season)
$37,202,000 (for 2021)
Dead Cap hit:
$38,356,000 (if he was cut, this would be the cap hit)
$22,850,000 (Total "cash" paid to AR this season)
- 2020-2023 Escalators ($1M Max)
72.5 offensive snaps: $100,000 (earned in 2020, 2021)
+ divisional playoff game: $120,000 more (earned in 2020, 2021)
+ NFC Championship: $130,000 more (earned in 2020, 2021)
+ Super Bowl: $150,000 more
$100,000 each for Top 3 in Passer Rating, Comp. %, INT %, Yards per Att., TD Passes ($100,000 earned in 2020, $500,000 in 2021)
So lots of ways to look at above numbers and if AR doesn't go to camps, sits the season out, retires, maybe some of the stuff paid in advance can be recovered by the Packers. While I haven't compared his contract escalators with other players of his Caliber, his ability to earn an additional $1M seems pretty generous. Which he earned all but the SB incentive last year.