Next QB?

[Mondio]

I definitely agree that the Packers should spend their cap space and draft capital on surrounding Rodgers with a better team. An additional $500K on a backup quarterback over Boyle won't prevent them from doing that though.

and I specifically said, this wasn't about saving 500K. A couple times. that said, spend 500K more than boyle for a vet. Probably gets you Hundley level or worse. Is that really an improvement that matters in the grand scheme of things?

Very good. That’s a good point and I actually did consider that beforehand. However, that implies the differences of paying a novice QB verses an experienced backup is somehow cost prohibitive.
IMO, it’s not and furthermore, paying a #2 QB is a cost of doing business. Even on GB’s limited budget.

I wouldn’t drop my new car insurance to liability coverage level, just because I have a limited budget (I’ll cut out the less important expenditures I waste $ on first)That’s the first thing I’m paying, because like QB, it’s getting me from point A to point B and it’s integral in the success of my ultimate goal.

It's not really a great analogy, better would be more along the lines of you have a performance race car and investing in pit crew to keep it on the track, or having a performance race car and keeping a 78 ford pinto on the side as a spare should you have a break down. that's what you're getting for 500K more than Boyle.

 

[HardRightEdge]

1021 QBs have been drafted since 1937 and only 26 are in the HOF. Even if that number is doubled to include QBs worthy of discussion for inclusion in the HOF that tells me the simple probability of finding "that guy" who is a game changer is around 5%. Since 1991, the year Favre was drafted, there have been 354 QBs drafted. Take a look at the list in the link below and tell how many of those are franchise QBs since 1991. There are a lot of "WTF?" picks. We are living in extraodinary times as Packer fans and once Rodgers is gone it may be another 20 years before the next one comes along.

http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/positions/qb

Awhile back I posted a list of QBs taken in the first two rounds over the last 10 years. Even when you limit consideration to higher round picks the record is quite checkered.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I wouldn’t drop my new car insurance to liability coverage level, just because I have a limited budget (I’ll cut out the less important expenditures I waste $ on first).

True, but you could take a higher deductible policy and take on a little more risk. That's what a Boyle does for you.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

and I specifically said, this wasn't about saving 500K. A couple times. that said, spend 500K more than boyle for a vet. Probably gets you Hundley level or worse. Is that really an improvement that matters in the grand scheme of things?

It's always a crap shoot and its not as easy as I am making it sound or as easy as you are making it sound, but I think we both like giving each other the business.

It all really depends on what level Gute feels the Packers offense is without Rodgers. Saints felt comfortable enough in their offense and their team to pay Bridgewater what they did. Brees goes down and they are still winning. Smart choice. Now had Gute signed Bridgwater for the kind of money the Saints paid him, I would have been pissed. For 2 reasons, one I didn't envision our team being as good as it turned out to be. Two, I still don't think Teddy B is good enough with what we had on offense to get us to 13-3 if Rodgers goes down for an extended period of time.

As it turned out, we didn't need Boyle, we didn't need Teddy B, Rodgers stayed healthy. Now the rub, had Rodgers gone down in the game against the Seahawks and Boyle comes in and lays a big fat egg and the Packers barely lose, you know where the conversation from most will head after that. Some of us would counter with "had they spent more on a backup QB, they probably wouldn't have been able to sign one of the Smith Brothers".

Each year you have to evaluate what you have in the funds to spend on a backup and just how good does that backup make your team if needed. Given the fact that the Packers still need to spend money to improve other positions, but should be a contender, I would be in favor of putting as much resources into a backup Vet QB as we can, but not until other needs are addressed. All that changes if they really seriously have a ton of faith in Boyle. How they get that faith, I don't know.

 

[Mondio]

It's always a crap shoot and its not as easy as I am making it sound or as easy as you are making it sound, but I think we both like giving each other the business.

It all really depends on what level Gute feels the Packers offense is without Rodgers. Saints felt comfortable enough in their offense and their team to pay Bridgewater what they did. Brees goes down and they are still winning. Smart choice. Now had Gute signed Bridgwater for the kind of money the Saints paid him, I would have been pissed. For 2 reasons, one I didn't envision our team being as good as it turned out to be. Two, I still don't think Teddy B is good enough with what we had on offense to get us to 13-3 if Rodgers goes down for an extended period of time.

As it turned out, we didn't need Boyle, we didn't need Teddy B, Rodgers stayed healthy. Now the rub, had Rodgers gone down in the game against the Seahawks and Boyle comes in and lays a big fat egg and the Packers barely lose, you know where the conversation from most will head after that. Some of us would counter with "had they spent more on a backup QB, they probably wouldn't have been able to sign one of the Smith Brothers".

Each year you have to evaluate what you have in the funds to spend on a backup and just how good does that backup make your team if needed. Given the fact that the Packers still need to spend money to improve other positions, but should be a contender, I would be in favor of putting as much resources into a backup Vet QB as we can, but not until other needs are addressed. All that changes if they really seriously have a ton of faith in Boyle. How they get that faith, I don't know.

If you're not my attorney, get off my case...

None of it's easy, drafting, FA's, keeping vets invested and focused, none of it.

I know the Saints are the example and when Rodgers appears to be in his last couple fo seasons, I can see more attention being paid to the back up or potential replacement like the Saints did. and I think teamwise the Saints were in a good position to do so.

I'm not sure the Packers are, Rodgers still tilts the field for us, even without super star numbers I don't think it means that another less than superstar QB comes in and is successful. and this year, we're looking at replacing a RT and still getting back up oline help that will likely be counted on at some point. We still need starters at ILB and another starting quality DL. If we have that in place a lesser QB coming in and managing a win starts to become a real possibility for us I think.

ANd trust me, i'm not opposed to keep looking beyond Boyle, but i'm not looking to spend more than a million or so doing it. I don't think the guys at 3 offer anymore really and when you start getting 5+ now you're taking away legitimate players (capwise) from the rest of the team that also needs to get better.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

If you're not my attorney, get off my case...

I will close my summation for the defendant by saying;

"If you are a legit contender for a SB run, carrying a developmental QB is just fine, but if he has no real NFL experience, than he should be your #3 QB. How much experience you can afford and justify to pay for a #2, should be correlated to what you have left over after free agency and your glaring needs are hopefully taken care of."

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[OldSchool101]

and I specifically said, this wasn't about saving 500K. A couple times. that said, spend 500K more than boyle for a vet. Probably gets you Hundley level or worse. Is that really an improvement that matters in the grand scheme of things?




It's not really a great analogy, better would be more along the lines of you have a performance race car and investing in pit crew to keep it on the track, or having a performance race car and keeping a 78 ford pinto on the side as a spare should you have a break down. that's what you're getting for 500K more than Boyle.

I’ve never said $500k more, I think that was some other poster’s number they were tossing around. The example I used was $2.816m verses 667k.. or roughly 2mil difference. That’s piddly winks for a reliable backup QB IMO.

Listen, we obviously disagree on the importance of the QB position. Its ok I don’t think anyone making meaningful decisions is relying on you or me Mondio. I don’t even think $2mil more is that much for a backup at many positions. Not sure why you’re fighting that concept at QB. It’s not like that gamble is going to pay some huge dividends at another position or have some enormous adverse affect on the greater good of the team.

So Let’s play out your scenario..and let me play devils advocate for a minute.
What position can you spend $2mil on (cause youre certainly not going without a backup QB) and get significant results that would outweigh gambling at QB#2. ? Cause that’s what it all Boyle’s down to

ps. Tim Boyle’s a Pinto. We need need a Honda Civic (something reliable that would bumble around the track a few times ‘til our Mustang gets new tires )

 

[Mondio]

I’ve never said $500k more, I think that was some other poster’s number they were tossing around. The example I used was $2.816m verses 667k.. or roughly 2mil difference. That’s piddly winks for a reliable backup QB IMO.

Listen, we obviously disagree on the importance of the QB position. Its ok I don’t think anyone making meaningful decisions is relying on you or me Mondio. I don’t even think $2mil more is that much for a backup at many positions. Not sure why you’re fighting that concept at QB. It’s not like that gamble is going to pay some huge dividends at another position or have some enormous adverse affect on the greater good of the team.

So Let’s play out your scenario..and let me play devils advocate for a minute.
What position can you spend $2mil on (cause youre certainly not going without a backup QB) and get significant results that would outweigh gambling at QB#2. ? Cause that’s what it all Boyle’s down to

ps. Tim Boyle’s a Pinto. We need need a Honda Civic (something reliable that would bumble around the track a few times ‘til our Mustang gets new tires )

I think we disagree on how important it has been to this team. I don't think a 2 million dollar back up is going to do reliably give anything more than the next guy making the rounds including UDFA's that spend a year on the PS and then get named a back up after they've seen what he can do. None of them make me feel confident about anything. If you want to start talking about guys who might give you a little more confidence they can do what you need them to do, you're looking at more than 2 million bucks. One thing in common those 2 million guys have, they're all Brett Hundleys in terms of QB skills with different strengths and weaknesses, but that's what you're looking at. and you never know what you're going to get, you just get them as ready as you can.

 

[OldSchool101]

I think we disagree on how important it has been to this team. I don't think a 2 million dollar back up is going to do reliably give anything more than the next guy making the rounds including UDFA's that spend a year on the PS and then get named a back up after they've seen what he can do. None of them make me feel confident about anything. If you want to start talking about guys who might give you a little more confidence they can do what you need them to do, you're looking at more than 2 million bucks. One thing in common those 2 million guys have, they're all Brett Hundleys in terms of QB skills with different strengths and weaknesses, but that's what you're looking at. and you never know what you're going to get, you just get them as ready as you can.

That’s where we disagree then. You’re comparing a novice UDFA with a veteran has multiple offseason programs with multiple teams and a good chance he’s seen significant live regular season action. That’s totally different in my mind.
As an example, Id much rather have a $3mil veteran with 25 starts verses trying to save $ by going with a 700K prospect that couldn’t even make a 7th round selection. Your backup is more of a developmental project #3 bordering on PS type. That UDFA should be used for emergencies only if the backup goes down.
Now I would have agreed with you if your argument had been this... have your focus on several veteran QB prospects that are not currently playing for anyone or on a trade deal if #12 went down for a substantial length of time.

 

[rmontro]

There's no guarantee a veteran outperforms a younger guy though. This was only Mahomes third year. The reigning MVP (Lamar Jackson) won it in only his second year.

Obviously those are special cases, but to some extent a veteran backup QB is just a proven failure. To some extent. And experience isn't everything. We could have kept Kizer, but we didn't.

 

[ARPackFan]

I think it's finally time for the Packers to start planning for AR's replacement. If this past year's trend continues, or, hopefully improves, we will be drafting late in Rd 1 for a couple more years.

If we wait till AR retires, and go with our backup the following year, that could move us up some in the next draft, but we waste that year. FA is too unreliable and expensive so that's out, which leaves drafting someone while AR is still active.

So when do we make that move, and what do we expend to make a move to get a serious contender that we don't have to overpay while he rides the pine learning from Yoda AR?

This team is a contender with upgrades at certain postions that have been discussed at length in other threads. Rodgers has not brought up retirment on a yearly basis and has expressed interest to play into his 40s. Using a 1st or 2nd round draft pick on a QB in this draft makes very little sense unless there is some trading and the Packers end up with an additional pick in the late second or early third rounds after addressing WR and ILB as a minimum. If Jake Fromm is available then I think he is a possibility as he is a player I think would benefit from 2-3 years holding a clipboard. If he is not there then I think you kick the rock down the road and see who might fall to late 2nd in the 2021 draft. 2022 is the first year I would consider using a 1st round pick. Someone already mentioned Josh Rosen who I think is worth a phone call and maybe a mid round pick.

 

[Mondio]

That’s where we disagree then. You’re comparing a novice UDFA with a veteran has multiple offseason programs with multiple teams and a good chance he’s seen significant live regular season action. That’s totally different in my mind.
As an example, Id much rather have a $3mil veteran with 25 starts verses trying to save $ by going with a 700K prospect that couldn’t even make a 7th round selection. Your backup is more of a developmental project #3 bordering on PS type. That UDFA should be used for emergencies only if the backup goes down.
Now I would have agreed with you if your argument had been this... have your focus on several veteran QB prospects that playing for anyone.

If I had a novice UDFA I felt had the skills to play QB but with no experience and a guy who had already proven he couldn’t hack leading a team why would I chose the guy in know can’t play?

 

[OldSchool101]

If I had a novice UDFA I felt had the skills to play QB but with no experience and a guy who had already proven he couldn’t hack leading a team why would I chose the guy in know can’t play?

Everyone’s a novice player when they start. So, the only thing you have is less experience choosing a rookie UDFA over a player who WAS a UDFA or (Draft selection) but now several years in the making. Using a UDFA’s college stats to supersede an NFL Veteran’s stats at the professional level is extremely unwise IMO.

The argument of throwing a UDFA QB selection without any experience behind Aaron Rodgers who could end up being our starter is the antithesis of the entire concept of player development. You’re saying it, but it’s like trying to convince you that you can’t hear yourself. Lol

Anyway, let’s hope you don’t get your wish and we sign another UDFA to be the primary backup to a 200mil+ team investment. When you find a UDFA QB that you think should be our primary #2 QB before draft day, I’d be curious which QB prospect you specifically think it should be?

My guess is this may be a year GB both keeps a veteran AND also spends a draft pick on a QB with all these selections. I know I know. It’s the exact opposite of your philosophy.

 

[Mondio]

Everyone’s a novice player when they start. So, the only thing you have is less experience choosing a rookie UDFA over a player who WAS a UDFA or (Draft selection) but now several years in the making. Using a UDFA’s college stats to supersede an NFL Veteran’s stats at the professional level is extremely unwise IMO.

The argument of throwing a UDFA QB selection without any experience behind Aaron Rodgers who could end up being our starter is the antithesis of the entire concept of player development. You’re saying it, but it’s like trying to convince you that you can’t hear yourself. Lol

Anyway, let’s hope you don’t get your wish and we sign another UDFA to be the primary backup to a 200mil+ team investment. When you find a UDFA QB that you think should be our primary #2 QB before draft day, I’d be curious which QB prospect you specifically think it should be?

My guess is this may be a year GB both keeps a veteran AND also spends a draft pick on a QB with all these selections. I know I know. It’s the exact opposite of your philosophy.

since when is my philosophy to keep UDFA's as back ups? It's more like i'm saying something, but you're not hearing it.

It's ****ing hard to find even a competent starter in this league. It's even more difficult to find a competent back up and when you do or you actually have a back up that might perform for a couple games, they get signed to big contracts somewhere else and then likely never do **** again. yay for them.

Evaluating what a QB can do is probably the most difficult thing in professional football bar none. This team hasn't been good enough for a few seasons to have anything but a great QB running the show. I don't care if you paid 5 million for a back up or 500K, none of those guys available inspires anymore confidence than another. I'm sure everyone would be tickled to sign Hundley as a back up again. No? I wonder why? Yet i'm to believe we're better off signing someone just like him and we'd be better off.

This team hasn't been good enough to matter

This team hasn't been good enough to matter

this team hasn't been good enough to matter

and if we don't get a RT, DL, ILB x2, WR and legitimate TE this year, it still won't matter.

I don't care if you spend 2 million or 1 or .5 million, that guy isn't going to make a difference. Can i be any more clear? I don't care if he's a vet, a former starter that is available for that price an UDFA a former UDFA or a former 1st round pick. If they're available and that's their going rate in this league, they suck no matter how much you pay them.

If you want to spend 2 million to get some one better than Boyle, go ahead, it likely won't matter. Want to get someone you can feel confident in? Now you're spending 5+ easily and I'll take a starter or depth at any of the above mentioned positions with that money right now thank you very much.

 

[OldSchool101]

This team hasn't been good enough for a few seasons to have anything but a great QB running the show. I don't care if you paid 5 million for a back up or 500K, none of those guys available inspires anymore confidence than another. I'm sure everyone would be tickled to sign Hundley as a back up again. No? I wonder why? Yet i'm to believe we're better off signing someone just like him and we'd be better off I don't care if you spend 2 million or 1 or .5 million, that guy isn't going to make a difference.

If you want to spend 2 million to get some one better than Boyle, go ahead, it likely won't matter. Want to get someone you can feel confident in? Now you're spending 5+ easily and I'll take a starter or depth at any of the above mentioned positions with that money right now thank you very much.

I somewhat agree with a 6-9-1 team not spending $ on a solid backup QB. But that is the past now. This team IS good enough now after finishing very respectable 13-3 and NFC game appearance.

I pray GB doesn’t ignore QB #2 again just about as much as I hope GB doesn’t ignore this Offense again for the 10th consecutive year. This Offense scoring 23 points per game is getting really stale. This could possibly go down as the most grossly misbalanced applied resources towards D over O over a decade period ever. But go ahead.. take your $2mil and go get that game changing starter or backup guy you mentioned that you obviously think will change the entire scope of the 2020 season.
btw. That’s such a trivial amount of $ that you’re applying elsewhere. What’s that.. like 0.8183% of our total package. Cmon. I’m not sure what other backup position is more important? truly smh
You must not be married because my wife could spend that kinda $ on Amazon over a month or so

 

[Mondio]

I didn’t say 2 million, I said spend 2 million and all you’ve done is get Brett Hundley or equivalent. I don’t care about 500k or 2 million at the position. It’s not much money and I don’t think any available at that price really bring much to the table. But hey, anyone can get lucky I guess. I said if you want someone that gives any sort of confidence you’re looking at 5+.

plenty of starters and really good depth guys at every position I mentioned earlier.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Let's just get Taysom Hill, pay him $3M/year and we can close 2 threads!

 

[Pugger]

doubt it. Can't play from the redzone and 3rd and short all game long. His niche is negated outside of a few specific plays for specific situations. He doesn't throw all that well anymore and 1 read and throw or run only works so often.

Do you get to see a lot of Saints games? Of those I saw he goes in for specific plays so I can't tell how he throws but I find it hard to imagine Hundley being better than him.

 

[Pugger]

This is often repeated. He could have 5 good years left. He keeps saying he wants to play into his 40s. There is a pretty strong consensus, justifiably so, that Graham was past his sell-by date and the WR position needs a serious upgrade, bigger factors in pass game performance decline than any erosion of the QBs skills. The challenge is Gutekunst's to find those players within budget while not compromising the line play, which means primarily the draft.

Yes, this incoming draft is the place to find WRs. I heard this isn't a great TE class so we'll have to look at FAs or hope Sternberger shines.

 

[Pugger]

LOL....Hundley is now proven, proven to not be a very good QB. He played a couple of times for the Cardinals and was 5 of 11 for 49 yds. no TD's. Was does that tell you? He has been in the league 5 years, still sucks and we were relying on him to be our #2 in 2017, when he had 2 career completions before coming in after Rodgers broke his collar bone!

You seem to be stuck on the fact that these Vets had a career, maybe not a stellar one, but one in which they actually took starting snaps, played under pressure, saw starting defenses, etc. Just hard for me to fathom how you prefer a guy that goes undrafted and has zero snaps in a regular season NFL game to suddenly take over a team. Still waiting on your success stories of UDFA #2's that have done that.

Finding decent vets to back up AR isn't easy because most teams hang onto serviceable veteran backups so they don't hit the open market very often and nobody is gonna trade for one. If Hill became available I'd for sure bring him in for a look see at least.

 

[Pugger]

The Redskins drafted RG3 and Kirk Cousins in the same draft. One is a bona fide starter. It was their 4th round pick behind Luck, Weeden, Osweiler, Russel Wilson, and Nick Foles. Interesting draft for sure. Here the Packers fans get mad if you draft a QB in the draft at all. Lindley and Harnish followed him in that draft. Washington is such a dumpster fire that they pushed out the staff that landed both RG3 and Cousins in that draft. If RG3 had been willing to study film he would have been better than what his career is going to end up being. Cousins may still win a Super Bowl. We have put out trash in our QB development program as of late, and we can't afford to backup an injury prone, aging, QB, with either a qualified veteran backup or a qualified developmental QB. There is a reason why NE makes the playoffs/super bowl year after year. Their QB doesn't take up 20% of the salary cap. There is a reason why Baltimore tanked after signing Flacco to a huge contract. They couldn't afford talent. There is a reason why the Rams, Chiefs, and Philly made it to/won the super bowl recently, they had cheap rookie QB contracts. When is the NFL going to figure out that paying uber QB contracts is the quickest way to keep yourself from the Super Bowl? When will the Packers figure that out.

I blame the Redskins for forcing RG3 to play before he was healed and that IMO killed his career more than anything else.

 

[Pugger]

There's no one suggesting that any of the quarterbacks Dantes listed would have taken this team to the NFCCG in 2019 but it's possible that one of them would be able to keep the playoff hopes alive if Rodgers missed some time next season.

While their combined regular season isn't great by any means they have combined to win a total of 211 games during their careers. That's a whole lot more experience that Boyle has to offer and might be worth an additional $1.3 million counting against the cap.

With that being said a veteran would definitely have to earn the job over Boyle during the offseason.



You have to consider that both teams have a starting quarterback on his rookie contract though.



There's no doubt that teams benefit from having an elite quarterback playing under his rookie contract. But at some point they demand to get paid and it's definitely not smart to move on from a franchise QB.

Once KC has to pay Mahomes they won't be able to keep that team together as it is today either.

 

[Pugger]

If the players aren't performing, they can find a job elsewhere like everyone else who isn't a professional athlete. What's the point of getting to the NFCCG if you don't bring the Lombardi trophy home next game?

So what should we do if we trade Rodgers? We aren't gonna get a QB in a trade like this. What team is gonna trade away a good young QB to us for a 36 year old Rodgers? Lets say we trade Rodgers for picks. We'd have to stink big time in 2020 to get near the top of the 2021 draft and a shot at good collegiate QB and pray he isn't the second coming of Mitch Trubisky.

There aren't 32 decent starting QBs in the league as it is. Rodgers isn't on his last legs yet. He isn't the QB he once was but with a better supporting cast we can still get to the promised land before he hangs up his cleats. With the receivers he had this past year and the issues still to correct on defense he still got us damn close.

 

[Mondio]

Do you get to see a lot of Saints games? Of those I saw he goes in for specific plays so I can't tell how he throws but I find it hard to imagine Hundley being better than him.

Do you think there's a reason he's put in for specific situations only and almost every play is a read option with 1 read to make for the pass or straight up run? I do, it's why they don't use him in every situation they required a back up. It takes a lot more to run an offense in every situation than it does to come in for a unique circumstance that plays to your strengths and unique talents to give you a chance at success. Heck, if you could take away the blitz against Hundley and all he had to do was throw to the outside, he'd probably be pretty good. BUt he can't read a blitz to save his life and he was usually high in the middle. It's why he's a back up.

 

[4zone]

Yes, this incoming draft is the place to find WRs. I heard this isn't a great TE class so we'll have to look at FAs or hope Sternberger shines.

Just because AR wants to play into his 40s doesn't mean he can. (see Eli Manning). Remember, this isn't simply about what AR wants, it's about how long he can perform at a high, or even decent level. That's the part that will be hard to estimate.