There are a lot of ways to play defense. I think with the guys we have now, other than Shields, we'd be playing more zones and not so much one on one on the outside.
That's right, though not the cover-2 variety. Capers has never been a hang-back-in-cover-2-all-day kind of guy. Certainly we see it, such as in dime/long yardage, but it's not his bread and butter.
Capers defense, and the 3-4 in general, is known for it's zone blitzes. That takes a lot of forms, as noted in the following link:
http://www.nfl.com/superbowl/story/...as-come-a-long-way-since-the-advent-of-the-34
While Capers occasionally drops a lineman (as noted in the Raji pick-six example), it's used sparingly, and hardly at all last year, probably because of the available personnel.
What should jump out in the link as very familiar is the
"smoke" version of zone blitz Capers ran in Pittsburgh. "Smoke"...disguise...Capers. Capers base and nickel scheme is comprised of variations of this theme.
Capers defenses blitz a lot, always in or near the top 5 in blitz frequency in the league, and the diagram of the Steeler "smoke" version of zone blitz typifies what we've seen in Green Bay since Capers arrival. It also serves to illustrate why the Packers have favored Hayward as the presumptive replacement at cover corner rather than pay to retain an incumbents.
Hayward's high INT/per target numbers derive from his play in zone; he's been far less effective in man coverage. He has a knack for reading the play and the QB. He doesn't have the speed to cover man-for-man against vertical routes. But plug him into the route-jumping role Woodson describes (left corner in the diagram) with the single safety (Dix) over the top, the personnel mix becomes clear. That leaves the right corner (Shields) to drop in man coverage, which is his strength. Shields is not the same player in zone, and has whiffed jumping routes over the years. Burnett's rising as one the league's best strong safeties in the league, and is highly productive in the box. In this example, he's blitzing.
It also illustrates why speed and coverage skill is favored at at least one of the 3-4 ILB positions and preferably both if one can find and keep smart, skilled 3-down players. There's no safety in the middle of the field. The ILBs have to drop, might be covering a seam route without help, maybe a RB moving to the slot or running a wheel route. If they bite on play action, they're toast...recovery and long speed is at a premium.
This diagram illustrates what I mean when I say the offense does not tell you their play in advance. Note this a a base defense against an offensive run set with two backs with an inline TE. And they're throwing the ball. This could be 1st. and 10, 2nd. and 3, etc.
So, the basic logic should be fairly clear as regards the personnel mix.
Now lets look at a few of the the risks.
To take just one example, if the offense runs out a 3-wide set on first down, and sets or shifts the TE or the TB to the slot or out wide (something familiar to Packer fans from the Finley days), that version of zone blitz is vulnerable, the defense must adjust, and might need to switch to man depending on the match ups. The better the coverage skills of the ILBs, the less likely the scheme is upset. Ergo, Hawk's and Jones' departures.
When adjustments must be made into man coverage, Hayward is vulnerable. As the Captain noted, Hayward's brief work at cover corner yields a high INT per target percentage, a low catch per target ratio, but a high yards per catch number...great in the short zone backed by a safety; vulnerable in man coverage. There's a trade off that's evidently being accepted. Striking gold with another Shields-like rookie might make the coaches' recent Heyward-Woodson comparison more plausible. With Shield's emergence and Woodson's losing a step, Woodson was moved around in a freelance/playmaking role out of slot/linebacker in nickel that might suit Hayward better than cover corner.
Expecting Hayward to be Woodson or a Shields-like player emerging is, however, beyond reasonable expectation. A somewhat lesser version of that scenario would be a happy circumstance.
Further, any single-high safety scheme puts a lot of pressure on Shields. We accept that. That's why cover corners playing on the island, including Shields, get paid what they do. Nobody gets by him in off coverage.
And the key to the whole shebang is the pass rush/blitz getting pressure to minimize the vertical and seam exposures. Again this is a base D against a passing play...which helps explain why Matthews was not playing ILB in base.
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