Monday night Football v Falcons official thread

[GoPGo]

The score of this one should look something like this:

Packers 38
Falcons 13

 

[GoPGo]

Passing Offense is a bit better than ours. (Hard to believe) 8th vs 6th

Um...no. I'm not sure why some posters insist on adhering to the antiquated way of thinking that yards is the only measure of a team's ability. A lot of really lousy teams pick up easy trash yards in the 4th quarter when the game is long over with.

Let's make a better comparison:

Falcons: 21 TD, 11 INT, 7.4 yards per completion, 3322 yards

Packers: 32 TD, 4 INT, 8.6 yards per completion, 3228 yards

So is Atlanta's passing offense even a little bit better than ours? Hell no! And it's not even close.

 

[Mklangelo]

One we

Um...no. I'm not sure why some posters insist on adhering to the antiquated way of thinking that yards is the only measure of a team's ability. A lot of really lousy teams pick up easy trash yards in the 4th quarter when the game is long over with.

Let's make a better comparison:

Falcons: 21 TD, 11 INT, 7.4 yards per completion, 3322 yards

Packers: 32 TD, 4 INT, 8.6 yards per completion, 3228 yards

So is Atlanta's passing offense even a little bit better than ours? Hell no! They're not even in the same ballpark.

I NEVER said that it's the only way to measure a team. Learn to read for comprehension and look at my posts clearly stating the limitations of the stat. It's simply a general, surface type stat.

I took you off ignore but obviously you insists on your confrontational style. Back to the list for you.

 

[GoPGo]

I took you off ignore but obviously you insists on your confrontational style. Back to the idiot list for you.

Oh no! Not that! You said Atlanta's passing offense was "a bit better than ours." I pointed out several valid reasons why you were wrong. And I'm the idiot? You want to think that one over for a minute or two? Oh, and I'm the confrontational one, too? Who started calling who names here?

 

[rodell330]

The Falcons did gain 500 yards and put up 29 points against the Cardinals defense, so it would be silly to take them lightly. I don't think that will happen being that this is a Monday Night game and the Packers will probably be pumped.

And we play outside where it will be cold and not on a cozy dome.

 

[longtimefan]

Why would it matter what anyone on a forum thinks?

If some one wants to go into the game thinking they win hands down and the pack loose, that person might have a huge let down..

No other reason than that

 

[Deleted member 6794]

rating defenses by yards is very misleading though. I mean that lands us 25th or something close to that, and that doesnt pass the smell test

Football Outsiders has the Falcons defense ranked dead last as well, 31st against the pass and run.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Um...no. I'm not sure why some posters insist on adhering to the antiquated way of thinking that yards is the only measure of a team's ability. A lot of really lousy teams pick up easy trash yards in the 4th quarter when the game is long over with.

Let's make a better comparison:

Falcons: 21 TD, 11 INT, 7.4 yards per completion, 3322 yards

Packers: 32 TD, 4 INT, 8.6 yards per completion, 3228 yards

So is Atlanta's passing offense even a little bit better than ours? Hell no! And it's not even close.

I would really like that some posters would take a look at the advanced stats by Football Outsiders as they took a lot of stuff into consideration for their stats.

According to them the Packers pass offense is ranked 1st in the league with the Falcons sitting at 8th.

 

[NOMOFO]

will someone who knows the Falcons explain to me what went wrong with that team this year? They feel like the southern version of the Bears

There was no logical reason to think Atlanta would be any good. First and foremost they have Matty Melt as their QB. They're yet again without anyone that appears interested in taking over the starting RB job and "running with it". They have an aging and usually hurt WR that people just insist on still considering way more viable than he is. Jones is a stud. That's it. You don't even need to "stop" him...just slow him down and the Pack wins this going away.

Jones scares me. Matty Melt makes me laugh.

 

[El Guapo]

If one is going to look at any one pure statistic it should be points scored and against, not yards. The Packers rank 2nd and Falcons 12th in points per game. For defense the Packers are ranked 15th and Falcons 22nd. Football Outsiders definitely has good information that can give you a more in depth understanding of performance.

 

[adambr2]

I'm really not worried about Atlanta at all. Atlanta couldn't beat us on our field last year with Matt Flynn at QB and a flukey pick 6 before halftime. Can you really see Matty Ice coming into Lambeau in December and beating Rodgers?

Don't get me wrong, I don't chalk any game up as a sure win, as I think any team could win anywhere at any time under the "any given Sunday" theory, but in degree of difficulty I would rank our last 4 like this:

1) Buffalo 2) Detroit 3) Tampa Bay 4) Atlanta

Buffalo is the only one that I have serious concerns about the matchup and losing.

 

[Pkrjones]

I have a completely different final-4 ranking...
1)Detroit (with something to play for + intent to injure players such as Raiola & Suh) 2)Atlanta 3) Buffalo 4)Tampa Bay

 

[TJV]

I am also more worried about Detroit and Buffalo is definitely second. Regarding the Falcons, here's McGinn's analysis of their team: http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/packers-next-opponent-falcons-b99401404z1-284567101.html
This is from "McGinn's View"

Currently, the Falcons rank 31st in sack percentage. Since Smith took over in 2008, in chronological order the team's pass rush has ranked 17th, 27th, 25th, 25th, 27th and 25th. Atlanta's two leading sackers are tied with 2½. There is no individual up front capable of winning one-on-one rushes.

Consider how the Packers' pass protection performed against the Eagles (currently second in sacks), and how amazing it was vs. the Patriots, and you get statements like this from an NFL personnel director:

"If Green Bay doesn't torch them for 40, I'll be shocked."

 

[MichiganSportsTalk]

But when we say "Detroit is #1 Defense" well that is based on yards allowed and nothing else.

I agree. Doesn't much matter what happens between the end zones, it's more important that you stop the other team from scoring. Points allowed per game is a much more important stat in that regard.

Who's allowing the fewest points per game again?

 

[Chicocheese]

I hope and EXPECT the Packers to win this game handily. I say that not because our offense can shred the Falcon's defense, but because our defense is playing VERY well and I happy to be able to say that. The key is going to be keeping Julio and the Falcon's receivers contained, and I think we can do that with pressure on Ryan. If we can keep Gronk quiet, we should be able to keep Julio, Roddy, and Douglas quiet.

 

[Jdeed]

The Packers are the best Home Team in the NFL.....they won't lose this one.

 

[GoPGo]

I would really like that some posters would take a look at the advanced stats by Football Outsiders as they took a lot of stuff into consideration for their stats.

According to them the Packers pass offense is ranked 1st in the league with the Falcons sitting at 8th.

I've always felt that applying the QB rating system to a team's overall offensive stats would be the best way to rank passing offenses.

Do you have a direct link to what they do on their website? Sounds like they do something very similar to that, if not that exactly.

 

[Vrill]

Falcons always score low outside in the cold. I see them struggling to get to 20 points on us.

Pack 38
Falcons 17

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I've always felt that applying the QB rating system to a team's overall offensive stats would be the best way to rank passing offenses.

Do you have a direct link to what they do on their website? Sounds like they do something very similar to that, if not that exactly.

Here's Football Outsiders' offensive ranking:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamoff

 

[GoPGo]

Here's Football Outsiders' offensive ranking:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamoff

I'm about to go to work so I don't have time to read the whole "DVOA" explanation but if I understand correctly based on a cursory glance, they essentially base their statistics on the ability of an offense to impose its will against what the defense is trying to do at the time, correct?

So in short, they're saying the Packers offense is the toughest to defend against, followed closely by Denver?

BTW, I see we are at the top of their offense rankings and Atlanta is at the bottom of the defensive rankings. Does this mean we can expect another 50+ points on Monday?

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I'm about to go to work so I don't have time to read the whole "DVOA" explanation but if I understand correctly based on a cursory glance, they essentially base their statistics on the ability of an offense to impose its will against what the defense is trying to do at the time, correct?

So in short, they're saying the Packers offense is the toughest to defend against, followed closely by Denver?

BTW, I see we are at the top of their offense rankings and Atlanta is at the bottom of the defensive rankings. Does this mean we can expect another 50+ points on Monday?

Here's the short definition of DVOA:

DVOA measures a team's efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation.

While I don't necessarily expect the Packers to score 50+ points vs. the Falcons I have a hard time believing they will be able to contain our offense.

 

[El Guapo]

BTW, I see we are at the top of their offense rankings and Atlanta is at the bottom of the defensive rankings. Does this mean we can expect another 50+ points on Monday?

Sure. It's the unstoppable force vs the movable object

 

[HardRightEdge]

Reasons why this is not a trap game:

- the Packers are still playing for the Division, let alone home field advantage
- they'll not want to get embarrassed in their home stadium by an inferior team with so much on the line
- most of the guys on defense are playing for either a contract or more snaps
- Rodgers has a long memory. Many hailed "Matty Ice" as the man a few years back. Another "chip on the shoulder" smack down is in order.

I'd be surprised, nay, shocked, if the Packers came out flat.

 

[Greenbayphil]

Rodgers comes out early in this one.

 

[Carl]

I don't see any scenario the Falcons win this game. Flynn and the Packers took them down last season.

Yes, the Falcons are better now than then, but the Packers with Rodgers vs without is much greater. I also guarantee there will be no fluke bounce of a foot pick six by the Falcons too.