MLF decision making process

[red4tribe]

I think MLF intended to go for it on 4th down when it was 3rd and 3, not expecting Wilson’s rush to lose five yards. Instead of recalibrating, he just stayed the course and went for it on a much longer 4th down. That decision may have cost us the game.

 

[tynimiller]

I think MLF intended to go for it on 4th down when it was 3rd and 3, not expecting Wilson’s rush to lose five yards. Instead of recalibrating, he just stayed the course and went for it on a much longer 4th down. That decision may have cost us the game.

I can see that being in the realm of possibility.

 

[adambr2]

Here’s my other beef with our offensive approach this season:

This roster, both offensively and defensively, is built to win track meets, not old school clock control ground games. This is a roster that you want to build leads with and force the opponent into early passing down situations.

Not punting all game is a pretty good indicator that you’re able to move the football. Not punting all game and scoring 13 points indicates a pretty flawed approach, even with a pair of turnovers.

Quit spending all game trying to control the clock, being predictable on 1st down, and just run your damn offense. It’s what we did in Pittsburgh in the second half and it’s why they could not keep up.

You have the deepest WR corps you have in years. You have a franchise QB that you’re paying 55M a year. You have two bookend edge rushers.

Teams are not going to win track meets with you. Stop being your own worst enemy.

 

[Voyageur]

Good question. I think the best coaches have more of a formula for those situations e.g. Belichick, Andy Reid. They weigh the strength of the offense vs. the strength of the defense, the down and distance, home field or not, and the ability of your D when the opponent gets the ball back. And they have a picture of that going into the game as well as a modified version due to the progress of the game.
In MLF's case he appears to be very spur of the moment. E.G. as you said there was still plenty of time left and, although our defense was vulnerable to the run game, the Panthers only had scored 13 points at the time. Not exactly an offensive powerhouse. 13-9 is better than 13-6.
Another part of this is that we went from 3rd and 4 to 4th and 8. That 4 yards changes the playbook and the percentage of success.
The other factor to surmise is that we had already sputtered in the red zone up until then. It was not like the last three games in which everything Love threw up was gold. This was a defensive battle. Not a track meet.
Lastly, MLF had to realize he did not have his best on the field. Kraft was out. Golden was out. Banks was out. Not sure if Jacobs was in. And Watson had just been checked out in the tent.
Now if MLF cannot factor that into making a decision he will never be a great coach.
My wife gave a humorous explanation. She said MLF had lost faith in McManus that he could even make the 30 yard FG.

Excellent points. I also question why he played McManus when he had a solid kicker who wouldn't have had any problems making the kicks during this game. Matt needs to take a deep breath and find someone who will help him make the right decisions under these circumstances.

 

[adambr2]

Excellent points. I also question why he played McManus when he had a solid kicker who wouldn't have had any problems making the kicks during this game. Matt needs to take a deep breath and find someone who will help him make the right decisions under these circumstances.

Carrying two kickers is a pretty odd roster decision that I’m not a huge fan with.

Obviously you can’t predict injuries, but it cost us Sims at a position that we’re suddenly very thin at.

If you believe in McManus and he’s healthy, then cut Havrisik and don’t worry about where he goes next.

If you’re totally sold on Havrisik, then move forward with him and cut McManus.

Right now you have a starting kicker who is looking over his shoulder constantly because you’re making a very unusual choice to keep a second kicker, and a backup kicker who is benefiting no one. Make a decision.

 

[Voyageur]

Carrying two kickers is a pretty odd roster decision that I’m not a huge fan with.

Obviously you can’t predict injuries, but it cost us Sims at a position that we’re suddenly very thin at.

If you believe in McManus and he’s healthy, then cut Havrisik and don’t worry about where he goes next.

If you’re totally sold on Havrisik, then move forward with him and cut McManus.

Right now you have a starting kicker who is looking over his shoulder constantly because you’re making a very unusual choice to keep a second kicker, and a backup kicker who is benefiting no one. Make a decision.

The question has been for two weeks is whether or not McManus is healthy enough to kick. He's missing kicks so something is obviously wrong. They should have used Havrisik as the kicker to give McManus time to heal. You don't leave points out there when they can win games for you because the kicker is a "game time decision" like we've been seeing. I'm beginning to wonder if the Packers wouldn't have been better off putting McManus on the IR list for four-weeks then bring him back healthy and they could have kept Sims. That would have been logical to me. I didn't understand why that didn't happen since the Packers could have made the IR move retroactive.

 

[OldSchool101]

I think MLF intended to go for it on 4th down when it was 3rd and 3, not expecting Wilson’s rush to lose five yards. Instead of recalibrating, he just stayed the course and went for it on a much longer 4th down. That decision may have cost us the game.

It’s plausible. However most of the time when a team backs up -5 yards at most they’ll do a fake trying to draw an offsides. Then just kick the Gimme FG.

Maybe the thought was “I already converted on 4th n 4, might as week look at this like a bonus drive at this point”.

Another reasonable thought was we might not see the Redzone again. Meaning it’s hard to get to the Redzone area just take this opportunity while it presents itself (playing Devils advocate) Again Like Dallas in the NFC
However we actually were moving the ball we had multiple Redzone visits and with likely getting 2+ more drives it would make it probable we’d have that type opportunity again.. for the win. A 3pt FG would also ensure Carolina FG wouldn’t go up 2 scores. It keeps likely keeps it a 1 score game at 0-4 or 0-7

 

[milani]

I think MLF intended to go for it on 4th down when it was 3rd and 3, not expecting Wilson’s rush to lose five yards. Instead of recalibrating, he just stayed the course and went for it on a much longer 4th down. That decision may have cost us the game.

Certainly did.

 

[milani]

Excellent points. I also question why he played McManus when he had a solid kicker who wouldn't have had any problems making the kicks during this game. Matt needs to take a deep breath and find someone who will help him make the right decisions under these circumstances.

Afraid the organization might be insulting McManus by playing his backup. It is a business and the first order is to win games.

 

[adambr2]

Afraid the organization might be insulting McManus by playing his backup. It is a business and the first order is to win games.

Should have been a pretty easy conversation.

“Hey Brandon, we’re excited to get you back but Lucas is going to continue to kick until I’m comfortable with where you’re at from a recovery standpoint.”

If there was any doubt at all as to whether his ability to kick accurately would be in question for the next 4 games, he should have went on IR.

It was roster mismanagement any way you slice it.

 

[gopkrs]

I noticed that the miss abs even the naje were both hooked. Though I confess, I'm not sure what ti nake of that.

 

[mradtke66]

Not punting all game is a pretty good indicator that you’re able to move the football. Not punting all game and scoring 13 points indicates a pretty flawed approach, even with a pair of turnovers.

I don't think MLF has a flawed approach. The execution was bad. If you aren't already, go watch Mike Wahle's podcast thing on YouTube. He does some basic film breakdown and covers what went wrong and why.

The kick vs. go for it on 4th down wasn't smart, not going to defend that one choice.

 

[Voyageur]

I don't think MLF has a flawed approach. The execution was bad. If you aren't already, go watch Mike Wahle's podcast thing on YouTube. He does some basic film breakdown and covers what went wrong and why.

The kick vs. go for it on 4th down wasn't smart, not going to defend that one choice.

Yes, the execution of the kicks. But that's what we're talking about. He should have been held out until he was 100% ready to be on the field. The fact that his kicks that are missing are hooking tells us that he's favoring a situation he's concerned about. Even if the pain is gone, there could be a pull felt in his thigh, and it makes him slightly modify his kicks when it occurs. There's no way around it. He hasn't belonged out there for the last two weeks. No execution by anyone else comes into play. Watching replays I see nothing in the snap or hold that would cause the problem.

 

[XPack]

Feel when in pressure situations we mostly fold. In comfortable games where get a lead, MLF play calling is superb.

 

[gopkrs]

Feel when in pressure situations we mostly fold. In comfortable games where get a lead, MLF play calling is superb.

When things are going good during a game, you usually stay on a roll. When things are not, it's up to the coaches to change things up so as to get us on good footing again. imho. Pressure situations? Seems like we are pretty good but sometimes I think we go for more than we need to. And that makes me nervous.

 

[Half Empty]

I noticed that the miss abs even the naje were both hooked. Though I confess, I'm not sure what ti nake of that.

Still drunk after Sunday's game?

 

[Magooch]

I don’t know I agree regarding Matt’s playcalling with the lead. At least some of the time it feels like he goes into clock-burning unofficial-kneel down mode waaaaay too early. Like, go up a score and immediately shut down shop lol

 

[gopkrs]

Still drunk after Sunday's game?

My fingers just don't work well on my phone. But I still keep thinking it's right and then just enter. lol

 

[OldSchool101]

Should have been a pretty easy conversation.

“Hey Brandon, we’re excited to get you back but Lucas is going to continue to kick until I’m comfortable with where you’re at from a recovery standpoint.”

If there was any doubt at all as to whether his ability to kick accurately would be in question for the next 4 games, he should have went on IR.

It was roster mismanagement any way you slice it.

Yes. His miss didn’t bite us last week. It sure bit us this week.

It’s a tough decision. Thinking he might just need a week off. You don’t want to IR someone unless it’s 4+ games if they are very valuable a Probowl Kicker is very valuable it’s hard to just sit them for 4 games also I get it. Keep in mind he’s not practicing in IR. Do you want your K not in the mix for a month? Continuity is important but especially at K so I can’t really fault them for not pulling him for 5 weeks. Not to mention IR limitations for a team. Like you can only use 8-10 returning players or so many per player etc.
For me it’s like burning timeouts in a game, it can come back to haunt you if you “use your credits” as they say in the hood. IR needs to be used sparingly imo.

 

[Voyageur]

Yes. His miss didn’t bite us last week. It sure bit us this week.

It’s a tough decision. Thinking he might just need a week off. You don’t want to IR someone unless it’s 4+ games if they are very valuable a Probowl Kicker is very valuable it’s hard to just sit them for 4 games also I get it. Keep in mind he’s not practicing in IR. Do you want your K not in the mix for a month? Continuity is important but especially at K so I can’t really fault them for not pulling him for 5 weeks

Agreed, but after week two of our sub kicking, they could have retroactively put McManus on the IR return list and had two more weeks of evaluation before considering bringing him back. It would have more than likely won one game, possibly both considering they opted to not try FGs in the first game of the last two.

Needless to say, McManus wants to play and is fighting to be on the field. My problem is that you can never trust a player to give you an honest evaluation as to whether they are ready or not. By not putting him on IR he's obviously been lobbying to get out there and LeFleur buckled under it and it was a mistake. On the IR, nothing he said would have mattered because he couldn't play no matter what.

To me, these are the kind of decisions that show what a top-level HC is all about. Andy Reid would never knuckle under a player's badgering to get out there. He understands that the decisions he makes effects the long-term health of the team, not the wants of an individual player.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying LeFleur is a bum. I'm saying that he let McManus badger him into the decision because Matt is a players' coach and he listens to his players.

Matt needs to learn that there's listening to them then there's making the right decisions, regardless of what the players says.

 

[Pugger]

I'm always a "take points" guy. Probably has something to do with me not growing on Maaden's video game. Still, I'm not over the offense, in two losses, against two bad offenses not being able to put up 20 flippin' points. Know what? The sun came up this morning.

Me too. Take the points.

 

[Pugger]

The trouble is that there’s no consistency out of Matt. Even setting aside the differing situations it’s perfectly reasonable to criticize both decisions (kick or not) because neither one is following any semblance of a consistent plan or approach. Every game there’s moments like these that crop up and it pretty much feels like they’re decided by a coin flip or whatever the “vibes” feel like.

There are situations where it calls for playing it safe taking the points, situations where it calls for being aggressive and going for it, situations where the analytics tells you one way or the other… but you can’t just flip flop back and forth between aggressive and conservative with no rhyme or reason. Just have some consistency, it seems like he ends up outsmarting ourselves more than the opponent lol

But in that 4th and 8 situation it didn't call for being aggressive. I can understand if it is the end of the game and you need more that 3 points but there was most of the 4th quarter left and a 13 yard FG, even in those winds, is a chip shot. Plus we were only behind by one score. Absolutely idiotic decision.

 

[Pugger]

I think MLF intended to go for it on 4th down when it was 3rd and 3, not expecting Wilson’s rush to lose five yards. Instead of recalibrating, he just stayed the course and went for it on a much longer 4th down. That decision may have cost us the game.

If what you are suggesting is what Matt was thinking the decision is even more egregious.

 

[OldSchool101]

If what you are suggesting is what Matt was thinking the decision is even more egregious.

Yes. I liked the aggressive approach on the previous 4th down. Yet there if you punt? If they get the 20 you net like 25 yards so why punt. Plus if you make the marker you’re in FG range in a pretty low scoring contest. I think it was 13-6.
Either way you’ll have at minimum 1-2 chances to get a TD and it’ll be 4-down territory which makes easier.
Take the Points unless we’re losing by 12 points. If the score is 18-6 or worse, Carolina, you go for the TD. We were only down 7 points. A FG, TD puts us +3 which is super advantageous. Carolina can Kick a FG to tie but they’d better not leave more than :25 sec on that clock or they’ll regret it.

 

[scooter_1954]

Here's the reality. We needed two scores to win this game, and LeFleur foolishly passed on a FG on a 4th and 8. This is NOT the first time I've seen him do this, and it infuriates me every time. As someone else said, there were over 8 minutes remaining in the game, and he squandered a critical scoring opportunity in a low scoring game, that cost us a win against a mediocre team, at best. For every genius move LeFleur makes, he seems to make 2 bad decisions, often at crucial junctures. I've been a Packers fan for over 60 years, and his decsion making leaves me angry and disappointed.