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McCarthy's Playcalling
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<blockquote data-quote="adambr2" data-source="post: 575623" data-attributes="member: 7277"><p>My problem with the call is at that point in the game, down 7 with 4 minutes left, you still need a touchdown, any way you look at it, to have a chance to win. Obviously with that much time left you aren't getting 3 FG's. No matter how you slice it, even if you kick a FG, even if you miss it on 4th and 6, you still need the same thing yet in the game -- 1 touchdown. </p><p></p><p>What do you figure is easier -- already having the ball at the opponents 12 and punching it in after converting a 4th and 6? Or kicking the ball off again with just a few minutes left, putting your tired defense back on the field, forcing a stop, driving the entire length of the field before time expires? </p><p></p><p>One of those is much, much harder to do than the other. It worked out and I'm thrilled it did, but there was an incredible amount of luck and circumstance involved -- a conservative 3rd down call from the Miami offense, converting a 4th and 10, recovering a fumble, Adams not being tackled in bounds, and 2 ill-timed Miami timeouts. Just because all this happened to fall into place does not mean that it is "statistically" the right call to take the 3 there and count on having a chance to put another drive together. </p><p></p><p>Analytically I hope we can look beyond the end result and not just conclude that "if it works, it was the right thing. If it doesn't, it was the wrong thing." It would be hypocritical of me to say "good choice to kick the 3" when I still wouldn't do that again given the exact set of same circumstances, and I certainly wasn't saying that yesterday.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="adambr2, post: 575623, member: 7277"] My problem with the call is at that point in the game, down 7 with 4 minutes left, you still need a touchdown, any way you look at it, to have a chance to win. Obviously with that much time left you aren't getting 3 FG's. No matter how you slice it, even if you kick a FG, even if you miss it on 4th and 6, you still need the same thing yet in the game -- 1 touchdown. What do you figure is easier -- already having the ball at the opponents 12 and punching it in after converting a 4th and 6? Or kicking the ball off again with just a few minutes left, putting your tired defense back on the field, forcing a stop, driving the entire length of the field before time expires? One of those is much, much harder to do than the other. It worked out and I'm thrilled it did, but there was an incredible amount of luck and circumstance involved -- a conservative 3rd down call from the Miami offense, converting a 4th and 10, recovering a fumble, Adams not being tackled in bounds, and 2 ill-timed Miami timeouts. Just because all this happened to fall into place does not mean that it is "statistically" the right call to take the 3 there and count on having a chance to put another drive together. Analytically I hope we can look beyond the end result and not just conclude that "if it works, it was the right thing. If it doesn't, it was the wrong thing." It would be hypocritical of me to say "good choice to kick the 3" when I still wouldn't do that again given the exact set of same circumstances, and I certainly wasn't saying that yesterday. [/QUOTE]
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