Packers McCarthy’s recipe for division dominance working

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Green Bay Packers head coach Mike McCarthy doesn’t have some secret, highly complicated formula for winning games against teams inside the NFC North.

But there is a specific format for what McCarthy has accomplished over the last three seasons, and he’s hoping to carry his recent success using that plan to secure what could be a benchmark victory Sunday against the Detroit Lions.

McCarthy outlined his coaching goals for winning division games Wednesday.

“We have identified, just through our studies in winning division games, there’s three very important components,” McCarthy said Monday. “The obvious one is the turnover advantage. . . . The second is third down advantage. . . . The third is the penalty advantage.”

The Packers have been mostly successful in checking off all three areas against division foes since late in 2010, which has resulted a franchise-record tying eight consecutive wins inside the division.

A win in Detroit would set a new franchise mark since 1967, the first year the NFL went to a division-based landscape.

The Packers haven’t lost a division game since a 2010 defeat in Detroit, a game in which Aaron Rodgers was knocked out of at halftime with a concussion. Green Bay has rattled off eight-straight wins since, matching streaks set in both 1996-97 and 2001-02.

McCarthy’s no-nonsense outline—winning turnovers, third downs and penalties—has fueled the Packers’ eight-game winning streak over the NFC North.

Green Bay is +10 in turnover differential (20 for opponents, 10 for Green Bay) over that stretch, and there hasn’t been a single game in which the Packers have turned the football over more than their opponent.

That streak might have to continue Sunday.

“Our ability to take care of the football and take it away will be critical this week,” McCarthy said.

Overall, Green Bay is plus-5 against the Lions, plus-4 against the Chicago Bears and plus-1 against the Minnesota Vikings during the stretch.

The Packers are also plus-4 in turnover differential to start this season (12 takeaways, eight giveaways), and Detroit minus-4 (10-14), so it’s reasonable to expect Green Bay once again winning the turnover battle Sunday.

McCarthy could probably use improvement on third downs, however.

NFC North opponents have actually been better on the pivotal down (42-106, .396) than the Packers, who have converted just 33 of 90 third downs (.367) during the eight divisional games. The margin is hardly extreme, but certainly something McCarthy wants to improve at Ford Field this week.

“The team that wins the third down advantage is part of this triple crown of emphasis,” McCarthy said.

Aiding the Packers is Aaron Rodgers, one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks on the third down. Since 2009, Rodgers’ 114.1 passer rating on third down leads the NFL. He’s thrown 40 touchdowns against just eight interceptions during that stretch.

While third downs haven’t always went the Packers way during since 2010, McCarthy can put a big checkmark in front of the penalties component.

NFC North opponents have committed 70 penalties (8.75/game) for 563 yards (70.4) over the stretch, while the Packers have been marked for just 35 for 300 yards. The difference is 35 penalties and 263 yards, striking margins over only an eight-game sample.

Also, during no game over the last eight were the Packers flagged more times or penalized more yards than their opponent.

Green Bay has been one of the NFL’s most disciplined teams since 2010, so the stats inside the division add up. Only the Atlanta Falcons (183 penalties for 1,627 yards) have been penalized less than Green Bay (207-1,717) since the start of the 2010 season, and the Packers actually led the NFL in penalties last season (76).

That success has mostly translated into 2012, although the Packers’ best stretch at avoiding penalties this season has come recently.

Since Week 6 — the start of the Packers’ four-game winning streak—Green Bay is first in the NFL in both penalties (13) and yards (119).

That kind of discipline will need to continue in Detroit, where emotions in this rivalry typically run high. Ndamukong Suh’s stomp on Packers guard Evan Dietrich-Smith last November is the shining example, but former cornerback Pat Lee was also ejected from the same game after throwing a punch on a punt return.

McCarthy said his team has spent time preparing for that kind of environment this week.

“We have heightened our awareness towards being disciplined and playing smart through tough and emotional environments like we anticipate Sunday,” McCarthy said.

McCarthy’s secret to dominating the division hasn’t been overly complicated, but it’s worked for the Packers over the last eight games in the division.

Continuing to earn high marks on turnovers, third downs and penalties might just be the key for McCarthy and the Packers to run their winning streak inside the NFC North to a franchise-record nine games Sunday.

Source: JSOnline.com
 

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