Thanks to the powers that be theres not much left to choose from because of waiting so long. In all liklihood the Packers aren't going to get a vast improvement over Crosby although it seems a one legged midget could probably be an improvement over Crosby at this point.
There wasn't much to choose from in the first place. Lindell? His leg is gone. No thanks. Carpenter? 81.9% at one of the friendliest places to kick? No thanks.
Let's take one last close look at Carpenter. The entire NFL has a 78.2% average at Lambeau over the last 14 years, which drops to 76.6% in the second half of the season when it gets even tougher to kick. Reportedly, with the new addition, it is expected that Lambeau may become tougher yet to kick in.
Miami is an 82.5% stadium. Carpenter is only 79% at home. That would indicate he is a better road kicker than he is a home kicker for whatever reason. Is there a reason to believe that would change in Green Bay? Probably not.
Dan Carpenter's career 81.9% is a slightly below the league average. It stands to reason that his percentage is helped by kicking in a kicker-friendly stadium 9-12 times per year. Move him to a team where he's going to be in kicker hostile stadiums at
least 9 times a year (GB & CHI), keep him slightly below the NFL average and you're most likely looking at a guy who is going to make around 75% of his kicks at Lambeau and right around 77% overall.
I just don't see where Carpenter would have been any kind of upgrade and no doubt the Packers scouting department didn't either. In fact, he could have been worse.
BTW, in kicker-friendly venues (domes, Miami, SD, Tampa, Houston) Crosby hits 86% of his kicks, so venue matters, and for some guys it matters a lot. I bet if their situations were reversed with Crosby and Carpenter over the last 6 seasons that people would still be wanting Carpenter gone from GB and Miami wouldn't have drafted a kicker to replace Crosby.
Here's the bottom line. We can dream all we want about having a kicker who hits 86% of his kicks in Green Bay. The fact is, it's not going to happen unless we can somehow wrestle Robbie Gould away from Chicago. Finding a kicker who can do that in GB is about like Chicago finding a competent QB. It could happen, but don't count on it.