Last Day - Last Mock...couldn't resist. Yes you see #30 right!

tynimiller

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I know I said I was done...but couldn't, as I've continued to pour through tape more and more I've changed my stance some. Below I will breakdown each pick with not just my reasoning but what I feel Gute or staff might say to justify the pick either to themselves or publically.

No Trades Version:

#30 - Michael Pittman Jr. WR (USC): If the Gary pick last year taught me anything it is the fact that Gute will not bat an eye to take a guy before some would say he should be. I've never heard a pundit really say anything bad about Pittman. He isn't a **** pick like Mims or Reagor here...or even Aiyuk...but he is a multi-year proven commodity at his position. Immense hand skills, body control is great, route running is well above average and doesn't rely on just one attribute to contribute like some others. I have his floor in the next level higher than any other receiver's floor, sure his ceiling is possibly lower than some...but I just don't see him busting without a career ending injury. No trades come in or as this scenario is no trades, Gute doesn't hesitate and takes a WR that I'd argue doesn't have big holes or even medium holes in his game anywhere.

#62 - Matthew Peart OT (UCONN): This dude I've had circled ever since making my first lists. His RAS score will shock folks, his feet are above average and his movement is something I like in MLF's system. Bahk I feel will be here another contract, but this pick is more about the right side than left. Wagner is a great experienced band-aid but in a perfect world next year he is our back up (or cut) RT and a draft pick excels enough to take over. Peart illustrates all the skills and projects as a starter, well worth a 2nd round pick even if he doesn't truly start impacting in a big way till 2021. (Niang IF available would be TOUGH to choose between for me, Edwards or Claypool are an option if we go OT at #30 here.)

#94 - Troy Pride Jr CB (ND): Excelled in man coverage and ND defense was an entirely different team the moment he would exit games. I'd love to say we don't have to use a 3rd rounder on him, but its a 50/50 projection he is even here at this point. Gute isn't dumb, he knows the situation brewing at CB, yes he has Tramon in the wings waiting, but it would be nice to have a rookie contract giving almost or close to what Tramon brings. I'm not saying Pride Jr. walks in and can play as many snaps as Tramon, but I do think he can 100% strengthen the DBs and instantly should garner the 3rd highest amount snaps from the present group. (Darnay Holmes is another CB to keep eye on around here)

#136 - Jason Strowbridge iDL (UNC): Lean, his RAS is awesome yet his greatest skill is run defense. I know that many are not a fan of this DL class...I tend to agree. Very quickly you go from guys that can or project well as all around guys - to one dimensional guys with possibly the ability to grow. Strowbridge is one of those Tier 2 iDL I think has the most potential to tap into more aspects of what his body and game could do, while continuing to be the run stopper he is known as. Gute is happy here as I feel he could arguably be the perfect mix of BPA and filling a true need. Clark needs help, just like the WR corps no one has really stepped up for that #2 spot. (I think Fotu DL, Reggie Robinson if we don't go CB earlier, Duvernay/Bowden or Okwuegbunam)

#175 - Mykal Walker LB (FRESNO ST): I love this guy and Strnad for our team. Athletic with no fear to hit...however Walker is more likely to be available here than Strnad. Walker is less capable than Strnad at coverages but does well in the box and shallow zones, he is not as poor as Martinez IMO for those wondering. His athletic ability projects there is growth still in his reading and coverage skillset. If we don't go LB earlier Walker paired with a healthy Kirksey and a hopefully progressing Burks and Summers we have a much better ILB corp now than last season both on paper and the field. Gute with gush over this dude's potential. (Jacob Phillips, Isaiah Coulter and some iOL would weigh heavy as options here...also start keeping an eye on RBs)

#192 - John Hightower WR (BOISE ST): I predict we will at minimum grab two WRs. While I'd personally love to pair Duvernay with Pittman or even Joe Reed...I ultimately chose to go with Hightower here knowing this could mean passing Reed for him. Hightower is explosive, can provide return game assistance and I think even could be a gunner. His 40 time is quick, his feet are quicker I think. Home run style ******* with big play potential...not as well crafted of a WR as you'd hope if he was your first pick, but he isn't terrible at anything either....but biggest flag I think is his concentration as lapses happen. I think Gute will go back to his big play, fast pace and special teams abilities at a presser on this kid. If I'm MVS and ESB, I'm worried about this guy...he is kinda a mixture of the two but also is neither.

#208 - Essang Bassey CB (WAKE FOREST): I truly believe if this guy was over the 6 foot mark he wouldn't make it this far. However, sadly here we have a quick footed, experienced man coverage DB that is a mere 5'9''. With 50 BPUs...take notice folks. Just don't look to him to be good at tackling....yea let's just say that isn't something you want to see. I love his quick feet and hips however and the potential he has.

#209 - Charlie Taumoepeau TE/FB (PSU): I can still remember my first mock when some were completely clueless as to who this cat was. Well he walked away from the combine with measurables that rival many of the top TE's and hybrid TE/HB/FB type guys. I love his potential, while he isn't the blocker perhaps we'd want to replace Vitale...watch out because I think he is every bit and more of a potential receiver. Great flyer late round pick/toy for MLF to dabble with some as he learns the professional game and speed.

#236 JJ Taylor RB (ARIZONA): When I see him I see a shorter, slenderer version of Maurice Jones-Drew. Is he that caliber, no....but no fear, short back that can hide and has the willingness to hit holes. A shifty, not fast guy...I like him and wanna see just what he could be - which arguably is nothing, but I want to see.

#242 - Scott Frantz (KST): I always want or am a fan of taking experienced late round OLs and I'll circle Frantz here, however another guy many say will be here would be Cervenka an iOL I really like out of Clemson many I feel are sleeping on.

That's it. I won't do a full blown draft but in a perfect world I would love a mild trade back from #30 into the mid 30's to mid 40's...we nab Pittman there and then have another 3rd or 4th to use on a Logan Wilson type ILB or Dye ILB or maybe be high enough to get a OT Gute likes. I also think trading up into the 3rd or 4th is something I found myself constantly desiring to do for guys I think are going to do very well...especially a few iOLs catch my eye....as well as possibly Bowden or Gibson to pair with Pittman.
 
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Dantés

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Pittman would be viewed as many as a reach, but he isn't one. WR4 for me.
 

tynimiller

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Pittman would be viewed as many as a reach, but he isn't one. WR4 for me.

He is my 4th as well. I forget if we match but I only have Jeudy, Lamb and Ruggs over him...and I'm 50/50 on Ruggs. Edwards is my WR5 but it is TIGHT between him and Aiyuk
 

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As far as WR #4, its Justin Jefferson. On Path to the Draft, one of the guys yesterday said a scout told him that JJ is the best WR he has ever scouted in many years. I was a little shocked and went to back up, but changed channels and was not able to hear it again. Maybe there were qualifiers. Said, he does it all and catches everything. Jerimiah said he was closer to #3 than to #5.

Also, something I heard, this draft will drop a lot of jaws. That the media and internet sites have things very differently than teams do. Typically most media get their info from inside sources while hob nobbing at pro days. Without this, the normal outlets are flying a bit blind.
 

Dantés

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As far as WR #4, its Justin Jefferson. On Path to the Draft, one of the guys yesterday said a scout told him that JJ is the best WR he has ever scouted in many years. I was a little shocked and went to back up, but changed channels and was not able to hear it again. Maybe there were qualifiers. Said, he does it all and catches everything. Jerimiah said he was closer to #3 than to #5.

Also, something I heard, this draft will drop a lot of jaws. That the media and internet sites have things very differently than teams do. Typically most media get their info from inside sources while hob nobbing at pro days. Without this, the normal outlets are flying a bit blind.

Jefferson is talented, but he doesn't play to his talent consistently on film and the scheme at LSU was catered for him to be successful. He had the easiest role in that offense. You have to project a ton with him because there aren't examples of him doing a lot of important things on tape, like beating press, winning vertically, winning in the screen game, beating top corners, etc.

Now he's pretty young and obviously gifted, so it's not like he's a finished product. So if they decided he was the guy at #30 and he fell there, fine. But if they give up picks to go up and get him, I'm going to be annoyed.
 

tynimiller

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As far as WR #4, its Justin Jefferson. On Path to the Draft, one of the guys yesterday said a scout told him that JJ is the best WR he has ever scouted in many years. I was a little shocked and went to back up, but changed channels and was not able to hear it again. Maybe there were qualifiers. Said, he does it all and catches everything. Jerimiah said he was closer to #3 than to #5.

Also, something I heard, this draft will drop a lot of jaws. That the media and internet sites have things very differently than teams do. Typically most media get their info from inside sources while hob nobbing at pro days. Without this, the normal outlets are flying a bit blind.

Jefferson is overblown IMO in the assuming the knowns which are really unknowns. Unlike many other WRs in the draft he was never asked to do what he does well against DBs that do what they do well. He can slaughter LBs and Safeties. Could he be everything some are claiming he is? Sure, but he hasn't proven much against anyone worth noting.

Did he excel in the LSU system and what he was asked to do, 100%. It isn't a knock directly on him I don't have him that high, but a testament to his unknown aspects of his game.
 

GleefulGary

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Jefferson was playing as a slot in a pro offense with the best college QB in years. He wasn't the best WR on his team.

I think he's a nice, safe pick. I just think there are likely better options.

Another part of it is that watching him on tape, you never got the sense that he's the athlete he tested like. That bothers me.
 

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Jefferson played primaily outside as a sophomore. He didn't play much as a freshman, so it was new to him. He still did well with 54 catches on a team that really spread the ball. 5 other players had 20 or more catches.

I believe he can play both. And you can see the development he made between those 2 years, it is impressive. He didn't play outside this season because he was so damn good at what he did from the slot.

He's smart, he's quick, he has great hands. I think he will do very well in the NFL.
 

GleefulGary

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Jefferson played primaily outside as a sophomore. He didn't play much as a freshman, so it was new to him. He still did well with 54 catches on a team that really spread the ball. 5 other players had 20 or more catches.

I believe he can play both. And you can see the development he made between those 2 years, it is impressive. He didn't play outside this season because he was so damn good at what he did from the slot.

He's smart, he's quick, he has great hands. I think he will do very well in the NFL.

He didn't do that great on the outside in 18. Don't go just off of the stat book.
 

AmishMafia

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I think he did well on the outside - watching him play. He is quick, instinctive and can really change direction quickly. I saw him play against press coverage and do well for a first year player. I didn't see anything that would say he can't be successful.


I guess we shall see.
 
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AmishMafia

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As far as WR #4, its Justin Jefferson. On Path to the Draft, one of the guys yesterday said a scout told him that JJ is the best WR he has ever scouted in many years. I was a little shocked and went to back up, but changed channels and was not able to hear it again. Maybe there were qualifiers. Said, he does it all and catches everything. Jerimiah said he was closer to #3 than to #5.

Also, something I heard, this draft will drop a lot of jaws. That the media and internet sites have things very differently than teams do. Typically most media get their info from inside sources while hob nobbing at pro days. Without this, the normal outlets are flying a bit blind.
Path to the draft ran yesterday's same episode.

It was a former NFL WR coach who said of Jefferson, "He is one of the best receivers that I've ever studied in 40-plus years".

I don't expect to change anyone's minds, I just want to set the record straight on my quote. You all seem set in your ways. I would not have heaped so much praise on JJ, but certainly I don't see what you all see.
 

GleefulGary

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I think he did well on the outside - watching him play. He is quick, instinctive and can really change direction quickly. I saw him play against press coverage and do well for a first year player. I didn't see anything that would say he can't be successful.


I guess we shall see.

Just for correction, a sophomore is not a first year player. First time he got extended playing time, but he did have an entire years worth of practice before that. There's a difference in that and a first year player.
 

tynimiller

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Little last minute prediction Charlie Taumoepeau doesn't make it to that pick. I get the sense his athleticism is going to get him gone before middle of the 7th....in a time where pro-days couldn't be done, his combine stats I think may just push him into the 6th for an otherwise 7th/UDFA type prospect.
 

Dantés

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Jefferson played primaily outside as a sophomore. He didn't play much as a freshman, so it was new to him. He still did well with 54 catches on a team that really spread the ball. 5 other players had 20 or more catches.

I believe he can play both. And you can see the development he made between those 2 years, it is impressive. He didn't play outside this season because he was so damn good at what he did from the slot.

He's smart, he's quick, he has great hands. I think he will do very well in the NFL.

Even in 2018, a lot of his highlights are from the slot. And a lot of what he did from the slot, 2018 and 2019, was not that impressive. For a lot of his production, you could have subbed in a replacement level SEC receiver and gotten the job done just the same. It isn't that hard to find spots in zones out of the slot against off coverage. It just isn't.

The problem is not talent. He's clearly gifted. The problem is that you have to project a lot with him, after he went virtually all of 2019 without dealing with press, without having to manage the sideline, and without having to deal with the other team's top corners. There's a real chance that you take this kid and find out that he's only really productive when you cater to him the way LSU did, and that would be a real problem.

That's not uncommon with college receivers, so if Green Bay looks at him and says we are confident we can project him to all the things we would want him to do, great! Pick him at #30, if he's there.

But if they give up their 2nd round pick to move up in the draft to take a wide receiver who requires projection like that in this wide receiver class, that's just mismanagement of resources. I just have to call it what it is.

Here is Greg Cosell's take, and I think it sums it up:

Jefferson profiles as a smooth and polished slot receiver with excellent size and length who can work effectively between the numbers at the short and intermediate levels. Jefferson is not sudden or explosive but he showed a good feel for working inside with a refined sense of pace and tempo as a route runner. He featured excellent hands and the needed toughness and competitiveness to work in the crowded middle; NFL teams with have to make a significant projection with Jefferson in 2 areas: Can he play outside and win isolation routes outside the numbers, and can he win consistently versus man coverage (Jefferson beat man coverage at times when he was the point man in trips bunch, working across the field)-- Jefferson may best transition as a movement receive who can line up in multiple positions (snaps at LSU in which he aligned in the backfield); Can Jefferson develop into a Robert Woods type of receiver, that would be his ceiling and make him a very good player

Cosell noted that 90% of his receptions came out of the slot, and much of it against zone coverage looks.
 

AmishMafia

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Even in 2018, a lot of his highlights are from the slot. And a lot of what he did from the slot, 2018 and 2019, was not that impressive. For a lot of his production, you could have subbed in a replacement level SEC receiver and gotten the job done just the same. It isn't that hard to find spots in zones out of the slot against off coverage. It just isn't.

The problem is not talent. He's clearly gifted. The problem is that you have to project a lot with him, after he went virtually all of 2019 without dealing with press, without having to manage the sideline, and without having to deal with the other team's top corners. There's a real chance that you take this kid and find out that he's only really productive when you cater to him the way LSU did, and that would be a real problem.

That's not uncommon with college receivers, so if Green Bay looks at him and says we are confident we can project him to all the things we would want him to do, great! Pick him at #30, if he's there.

But if they give up their 2nd round pick to move up in the draft to take a wide receiver who requires projection like that in this wide receiver class, that's just mismanagement of resources. I just have to call it what it is.

Here is Greg Cosell's take, and I think it sums it up:



Cosell noted that 90% of his receptions came out of the slot, and much of it against zone coverage looks.
Come on, did this guy run over your dog or something?

When I watch him, I see a fearless natural receiver. A polished intelligent player. He has great hands and plays with great strength. He has great short quickness and can turn on a dime. Coaches say he is a hard worker and it shows.

Every player is a projection in one way or another until they are in the NFL. There is a lot to be excited about Justin Jefferson and I don't see much to think he won't be very successful in the NFL.
 

Dantés

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Come on, did this guy run over your dog or something?

When I watch him, I see a fearless natural receiver. A polished intelligent player. He has great hands and plays with great strength. He has great short quickness and can turn on a dime. Coaches say he is a hard worker and it shows.

Every player is a projection in one way or another until they are in the NFL. There is a lot to be excited about Justin Jefferson and I don't see much to think he won't be very successful in the NFL.

Yeah... that's why I said go ahead and draft him at #30. Lol.
 

tynimiller

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Sorry I just don't see a guy as well rounded as some others in him. What he does well, arguably he does the best at. However, I strongly want a guy I know can deliver against man, against true coverage CBs...not just lbs and safeties attempting to cover someone they cannot.

I won't be upset we pick him, I just strongly believe there are others than can do more and fit us better.
 
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