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Just How Good Does the Defense Need to Be?
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<blockquote data-quote="toolkien" data-source="post: 458604" data-attributes="member: 4637"><p>It depends on how good the offense is. Teams win on point margin and turnover margin. That can be driven by a great D and a "don't F'it up O" or a great O and a "bend but don't break" D. The Packers are obviously of the latter variety. So, if the O is a 450 pts/15 giveaway team, the D can afford to be a 330 pts/30 takeaway teams. A team that is ~ +7 in point margin per game and ~ +1 in turnover margin per game they'll be in the playoffs. 330 pts/30 takeaways is pretty much right at the top 10 break point in both of those categories.</p><p> </p><p>But here's the kicker. If the Packers do pan out with the above O and D, but the O decides to give the ball away 4 times in a playoff game, the D can't suddenly be expected to turn into the Steelers or take the blame. It is the story of that 2nd window of opportunity the Packers had from '01-'04. The D wasn't great, but it was good/fair. Coupled with the top 3 O the Packers were a playoff team. But the Packers gave the ball away hot and heavy come the playoffs (particularly the washout games) and the D was suddenly supposed to be a Force or be held responsible (because lord knows Favre couldn't take the fall for his 52.1 composite QB rating in those '01-'04 washout games).</p><p> </p><p>The Packers were no more skewed than pretty much the rest of the NFL over those 4 years, with the exception of but a few teams, they simply didn't sustain their strengths in crunch time and the tendency was to blame the weaker side of the ball that was designed to be that way. The Packers had no more holes than the majority of the rest of the NFL, if not much less, but the strong side of the ball crashed and burned with regularity. Thinking teams can have great O and D at the same time is becoming a pipe dream. Very few potent and balanced teams the last decade and getting rarer.</p><p> </p><p>And so the Packers will be a top tier playoff team if they can score 450 and give up 330 and have a +15 turnover margin. So a top 1 or 2 O with an 10th-12th D is enough. If it seems fragile, welcome to the 2000's NFL. And a championship will require maintaining that formula, just as the Ravens or Steelers' formula requires they only give up 13 pts per game. If they decide single elimination is the best time to give up 28-31 points, they're not going to win. Skewed and fragile is the modern reality in the NFL. Though balanced and mediocre is closing the gap (e.g. Giants, Cardinals).</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="toolkien, post: 458604, member: 4637"] It depends on how good the offense is. Teams win on point margin and turnover margin. That can be driven by a great D and a "don't F'it up O" or a great O and a "bend but don't break" D. The Packers are obviously of the latter variety. So, if the O is a 450 pts/15 giveaway team, the D can afford to be a 330 pts/30 takeaway teams. A team that is ~ +7 in point margin per game and ~ +1 in turnover margin per game they'll be in the playoffs. 330 pts/30 takeaways is pretty much right at the top 10 break point in both of those categories. But here's the kicker. If the Packers do pan out with the above O and D, but the O decides to give the ball away 4 times in a playoff game, the D can't suddenly be expected to turn into the Steelers or take the blame. It is the story of that 2nd window of opportunity the Packers had from '01-'04. The D wasn't great, but it was good/fair. Coupled with the top 3 O the Packers were a playoff team. But the Packers gave the ball away hot and heavy come the playoffs (particularly the washout games) and the D was suddenly supposed to be a Force or be held responsible (because lord knows Favre couldn't take the fall for his 52.1 composite QB rating in those '01-'04 washout games). The Packers were no more skewed than pretty much the rest of the NFL over those 4 years, with the exception of but a few teams, they simply didn't sustain their strengths in crunch time and the tendency was to blame the weaker side of the ball that was designed to be that way. The Packers had no more holes than the majority of the rest of the NFL, if not much less, but the strong side of the ball crashed and burned with regularity. Thinking teams can have great O and D at the same time is becoming a pipe dream. Very few potent and balanced teams the last decade and getting rarer. And so the Packers will be a top tier playoff team if they can score 450 and give up 330 and have a +15 turnover margin. So a top 1 or 2 O with an 10th-12th D is enough. If it seems fragile, welcome to the 2000's NFL. And a championship will require maintaining that formula, just as the Ravens or Steelers' formula requires they only give up 13 pts per game. If they decide single elimination is the best time to give up 28-31 points, they're not going to win. Skewed and fragile is the modern reality in the NFL. Though balanced and mediocre is closing the gap (e.g. Giants, Cardinals). [/QUOTE]
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Just How Good Does the Defense Need to Be?
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