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  1. greengold

    greengold Cheesehead

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    • Agree Agree x 2
  2. Pokerbrat2000

    Pokerbrat2000 Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.

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    Scott has been pretty damn good. I remember wondering why the Packers drafted him. 2017 Punter Justin Voegel seemed to have done a pretty decent job. Vogel wasn't that flashy, but he set the single-season franchise record for net punting average with 41.6 yards per punt and was selected to be a 2018 Pro Bowl alternate.

    This was definitely a case of the Packers really liking Scott and felt they were upgrading. It appears that they nailed this decision. Scott has been really solid and Vogel tried to make 3 other teams, but failed.

    I've always felt that a Punter is more important to the team, than some do and love having J.K. as that added weapon.
     
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  3. Cheese Headed Monster

    Cheese Headed Monster Cheesehead

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    #ForTheBrand
     
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  4. Pkrjones

    Pkrjones Cheesehead

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    Love the nickname! Think if we use it enough the mainstream beat writers will pick it up & use it? :)
     
  5. XPack

    XPack Cheesehead

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    We should. JK47 he is from now.
     
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  6. Calvin

    Calvin Cheesehead

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    Yeah, our punter is the business! Every time GB has to punt, I know its going for 40+, he is the real deal.
     
  7. El Guapo

    El Guapo Cheesehead

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    Agreed. The punter is an important position and Scott is legitimately a part of the reason we are 4-1 this season. The last punter that I felt this way about was Craig Hentrich. I was sad to see Hentrich go to Tennessee and hope that we are able to keep Scott for the foreseeable future. He's like the friend that brings you a beer when things aren't going well, which gets you back on track.
     
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  8. greengold

    greengold Cheesehead

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    What? JK-47? Hells YEAH!
     
  9. OldSchool101

    OldSchool101 Peerless Beer, Lacrosse WI

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    This kid is remarkable. He basically backs the punt returner 5 yards each punt and gives our coverage unit an extra bonus 5 yard head start (hang-time).

    Theres probably an adjusted points metric off the average Punter + or -
    My guess is, JK-47 statistically single footed prevents 3 points per game over the average P
     
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  10. tynimiller

    tynimiller Cheesehead

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    Honestly, in a not so small way JK-47 is the unsung hero of this offense. In a year where we are switching an entire playbook...going through the growing pains of young WRs and to be honest a culture change in a way IT IS CRUCIAL to know when a 4th down happens JK-47 is gonna come out there and flip the field with just one kick nearly EVERY time.
     
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  11. PackAttack12

    PackAttack12 R-E-L-A-X

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    Selecting Scott was a part of the total transformation of this football team, from top to bottom, with exception of a few cornerstone pieces (Rodgers, Bakhtiari, Clark, etc.) Selecting Bradley in the 7th round was a part of this as well.

    JK has been incredible. Not very often that you can refer to your punter as a 'weapon', but he most definitely qualifies for that.
     
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  12. Mondio

    Mondio Cheesehead

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    He shouldn't be unsung, Packer fans in general needed to learn that you can win football games by playing well in other phases besides offense. We're winning games like so many other teams need to win games, with good ST (well punting anyway, KOs have some work to do) and defense. Field position is huge in this game and last year we were giving up almost an entire offensive output in games just on special teams. That's significant.

    Winning is easier when you can play field position, put a clicking offense with that and the end goal is certainly attainable.
     
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  13. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    I would not question that Scott is worth that 5th. round pick if he keeps doing what he's doing. However, 3 points is probably too generous when comparing the 2019 version of Scott to the guy he replaced:

    2017/Vogel:

    71 punts/44.4 gross/41.6 net
    29 returned, 40.8%, 5.7 yds per return
    19 inside the 20, 26.8%
    2 touchbacks, 2.8%
    4.4 punts per game / 39.3% offense 3rd. down conversion rate

    2019/Scott:

    29 punts/48.3 gross/44.1 net
    12 returned, 41.3%, 6.8 yds per return
    12 inside the 20, 41.4%
    2 touchbacks, 6.9%
    5.8 punts per game / 30.5% offense 3rd. down conversion rate

    If Vogel were kicking 5.8 times per game as Scott has done this season in the way he did in 2017, the statistical difference between the two kickers is 22.6 yards gross and 14.5 yards net per game. It's hard to argue that's worth 3 points on it's face.

    If you did something crude like take the Packers 1,772 yards passing and rushing this season, with kick return yards relative to a 25 yard line start being negligible, punt return yards also negligible, and 153 yards of offsetting offensive penalties, you get 1619 "advancement" yards against 119 points scored. That's 13.6 yards to one point. On that crude basis, we could say the Vogel/Scott difference in net is worth 1.1 points per game on 5.8 punts per game.

    You can crunch all the numbers you want and you'll never get a definitive answer. To me, that 1.1 points smells about right and that is a meaningful number.

    If somebody could do the impossible and come up with a persuasive formula for "points over average replacement" akin to the various MLB "wins over replacement" black box formulas, my sense is you'd find +3 points over average replacement to be a very tough get for the vast majority of position players and probably no punters.

    What sticks in my mind is the clutch 63 yard punt with 1:33 left in the Bears game. That came after a run, an incompletion and then a run on 3rd. and 5 in burning some clock on a 3-and-out. Even with Cohen's 14 yard return, the net was 49 yards, with the return perhaps assisted by a holding penalty that was enforced. This was huge, moving the ball from the GB 27 to the CHI 14. Flipping the field in this way may have been the difference between the win and overtime. It certainly made CHI's job a lot harder given the possible alternatives.

    The 58 yarder with 3:45 left in the Dallas game, while not quite as significant, was also clutch.

    Vogel was not some weak leg. In 13 of 16 games he had a long kick of 50+, 9 games with a 55+ punt. I don't know what Scott did in the offseason to get where he is now but the eye test clearly says Scott has the bigger leg with generous hang time, a valuable weapon when you really need it, as in that Bears game, at the end of halfs and with a lead at the end of close games.

    In situations where Scott has enough field to give it all he's got, say inside the Packer 35, according to the ESPN play-by-plays his gross punts have been:

    CHI: 53, 42, 63, 50, 63
    MIN: 43, 44, 47, 59, 48
    DEN: 50, 66
    PHI: 52
    DAL: 48, 57, 45, 41, 58

    That's a 51.6 yard average on those air-it-out kicks. I don't think that number is dramatically above average, but what we do see is consistency (no killer shanks) with some above average distance.
     
    Last edited: Oct 10, 2019 at 10:39 AM
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  14. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    My knee jerk reaction to the title of the thread was to give you a "creative". Then my rational mind took over and I rescinded that, for a couple of reasons:

    1) "JK-47" suggests line drive kicks. Punts are more like mortar rounds.

    2) "AK-47" is a dirty word in my vocabulary. Even modified to semi-automatic for civilian use, or automatic with a bump stock before bump stocks became illegal (which I'm sure can be gotten easily on the black market), the idea that these weapons which have no practical civilian use other as an entertainment in target shooting are legal to sell and own is an abomination. I have no interest in "having a conversation" about it. Every poll says most Americans agree. J.K. Scott might also not care for the association, but you'd have to ask him.
     
    Last edited: Oct 10, 2019 at 11:01 AM
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  15. El Guapo

    El Guapo Cheesehead

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    Soooooo, ummmmm, :whistling:, yeah, JK Scott is a great punter so far. Tough to compare all of his stats to Vogel because one could also argue that the ST players around him were playing at the best that I've seen in years. Our coverage of punts was near fantastic that season. Coverage has looks better than average this season but we have had a few woes.


    p.s. I agree with you Edge but am keeping my comments on topic!
     
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  16. OldSchool101

    OldSchool101 Peerless Beer, Lacrosse WI

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    I gave you a like because I appreciate the in depth thought process. First of all though, just for clarity, I never compared him with Vogel. Now maybe Vogel was the average mean Punter idk.

    Although it’s minor on the face, as you noted he swings momentum in our favor and puts pressure on teams to dig out of a hole, getting buried one scoop of dirt at a time through each possession change. Until you get backed up to your own redzone. That’s a reality with over 5+ punts/GM. Eventually, Being pinned inside the 20 or 15 or even 10 yard line changes the entire play call.
    Momentum is a deceptive thing. We’ve both watched games where a team is losing but yet, we can still feel the change in momentum. There’s games I’d rather be losing in stats and down 3 points, but I’m the last one holding the ball with momentum. It’s an energy that doesn’t hit the stat sheet directly, but it’s points or maybe even the game decided.
    We haven’t even talked about the decrease in ST infractions which lead to massive penalty yardage.

    Ok. I’ll adjust my hypothesis with your argument. He’s good for 2 points per game. :roflmao:
     
  17. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    It is true that comparing net has its issues since it is dependent on the punt coverage teams. But when you consider Scott has a 3.9 yard better gross with a lesser 3.5 better net than Vogel, while returners are getting an extra 1.1 yards on a similar percentage of returns, while assuming longer kicks give the returner more separation, it's hard to see where the coverage has been much different.

    That the current version of Scott is an upgrade over Vogel or any punter in Packer history, and likely worth a 5th. round pick if he keeps doing what he's doing, would be the logical conclusion. However, I don't see any point in exaggerting the signficance.
    A nickname has been proposed. I suggested reasons why it might not be appropriate. That should be considered on-topic. ;)
     
  18. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    I know you didn't. Vogel was Scott's predecessor so he would be the apt comparison.

    I'm not willing to meet you in the middle. The Vogel/Scott difference is worth about 1 pont per game on average in my view without some compelling statistical evidence to the contrary.

    The highest paid punter in the league is Morstead at $3.9 mil per year. I don't think you can find some moneyball argument that top punters are meaningfully undervalued.
     
    Last edited: Oct 10, 2019 at 11:50 AM
  19. Cheese Headed Monster

    Cheese Headed Monster Cheesehead

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    Stealing from someone else, "Kickabod Crane" ............nicknames are tough :laugh:

    *** Also saw Das BOOT! or LegaTron
     
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  20. OldSchool101

    OldSchool101 Peerless Beer, Lacrosse WI

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    I’m also fine with forgoing a nickname. I don’t want to create any more attention to him than necessary.
    I want JK to quietly keep booming 50 yards right through the SB :ninja:
     
  21. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    Given how nicknames are doled out, they probably call him "Scotty" or just "J.K." in the locker room.

    pro-football-reference.com often shows notable nicknames. For instance, Jared Goff's is shown as "Mr. Perfect", which is ironic given he's tied for 2nd. in most INTs this season, but I digress.

    The following link shows the all-time ranking of qualfying punters in terms of gross average:

    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/punt_yds_per_punt_career.htm

    Of the top 10, the only guy shown to have a nickname at p-f-r.com is Pat "The Boomstick" McAfee. We all may have missed the boat in not coming up with Bryan "Strike Out In" Anger, but that's water under the bridge.

    The greats from prior eras, Ray Guy and Yale Lary, appear to have gone nickname-free. Lary was a very good DB, good enough to be in the HOF, so he could have been "Double Trouble". Since there were still some good two-way offense/defense players in the league that would have been a bit much.

    In short, to avoid an overreach, I'd stick with "Scotty" or "J.K."
     
  22. Pokerbrat2000

    Pokerbrat2000 Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.

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    Any comparison of Scott to Vogel, should also include the fact that Scott is game fully employed, whereas Vogel hasn't kicked a punt for a team since the Packers in 2017.

    So stats aside, there was something about Vogel, that the Packers and at least 3 other NFL teams didn't like.
     
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  23. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    Vogel was the 23rd. ranked punter in gross yards in 2017. However, his net was 7th. ranked, in part because of his very low touchback count, only 2 on 71 punts. On the other hand, his 19 inside the 20 was a pretty low number.

    With low touchbacks and low inside-the-20's, the numbers suggest he got a lot of long kicks to pad the gross. While he did make some long punts, the general assessment is likely that he is inconsistent in flipping the field when there's a lot of field presenting the opportunity. That's half the job, and not getting that done might be the disqualifier. He wasn't so bad that he wouldn't be considered as an in-season injury replacement.
     
    Last edited: Oct 10, 2019 at 1:40 PM
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  24. tynimiller

    tynimiller Cheesehead

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    Not entering a discussion on this, but just merely trying to appease my curiosity, you do know an AK-47 (while numerous mechanical and design differences) is essentially the same as the AR-15 just a slightly larger bullet size? Again let me stress I in ZERO way desire to debate you, just curious.
     
  25. tynimiller

    tynimiller Cheesehead

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    I for one was shocked he didn't make a team when we let him loose.
     

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