To pull this thing back on track...
Ben Fennell is one of my favorite Twitter follows. He is one of the best in the media in terms of tape study and he shares a lot of what he's seeing. He spends a lot of time on the Packers. A couple weeks ago, he had a
post that caught my eye.
After reviewing the season on film, his opinion is that the top need for the Packers is range and play-making ability from the 2nd level (ILB).
Blake Martinez is a pretty good player. The general opinion of him is probably higher than where it ought to be. I would blame his PFF grade for that. It's been relatively high because Martinez is relatively good at what he's asked to do. But it doesn't take into consideration what Martinez
can't do, which is range to the sidelines and make plays in the passing game.
This is not PFF's fault. It's just the nature of putting grades on players. Understanding what type of play is being graded is just as important as understanding the grade itself. For example, Mike Pennel (iDL, NYJ) carries a grade from last season of 87.1. That sounds great on the surface... until you realize that Pennel was/is a bit part player who only really factors on running downs.
So all of that to say, it makes sense to me that someone would assess the film and come away feeling that LB is a big need despite the Packers having a highly rated player at the position.
That then raises some questions. The first that comes to mind is: what's the plan for Oren Burks and Josh Jones? It's unclear whether Jones will fit in long term in a S role or at LB. He's a fast, explosive player, but he lacks the fluidity that you'd ideally want to see in coverage. He was also drafted by the previous GM, so it's possible that Gute & Co aren't committed to finding him a home if he doesn't make big improvements.
Burks, on the other hand, was drafted by this FO (and in the top 100, no less). He possesses all the athleticism that you want. He's long, fast, and fluid. However, he spent a lot of time in college switching positions, so the book on him coming out was that he would need time to settle into one spot and get comfortable.
That last part is why it's so tricky to assess this need. Burks didn't play a lot in 2018 and he wasn't very good when he did. But when he was always supposed to need a redshirt year, it's hard to know for certain why that was. Is he just developing? Or is he just not good?
And so we come to the draft supply of linebackers. There are two that stand head and shoulders above the class-- Devin Bush and Devin White. Both would upgrade the position in a big way. I prefer Bush, much like JJ. So if the Packers want to upgrade the spot, it's probably going to have to be in the 1st round or not at all. But would they do that if they still believe in Burks? That's hard to say. I suppose it's possible that they draft one of the two to play next to Martinez in 2019, replace him in 2020, and leave that door open for Burks to still fill that 2nd LB role after Martinez leaves.
