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<blockquote data-quote="HardRightEdge" data-source="post: 628707"><p>That's obvious, but not precisely correct.</p><p></p><p>In 2013, Gronkowski missed the first 6 games of the season coming off the arm infection and back surgery. He came back to play in the next 6 games, and then blew his ACL in the 7th. where he caught 2 passes.</p><p></p><p>In the 10 games he missed entirely or in part, the Pats went 8-2. In the 6 games he was fully available, the Pats went 4-2.</p><p></p><p>In the 8-2 games, the Pats scored on average 25 points against 17 surrendered. Compare and contrast to the Packers eerily similar 27 - 16 averages this season.</p><p></p><p>In the 4-2 games with Gronkowski in 2013. the averages were 33 for against 27 surrendered.</p><p></p><p>On the season, the Pats had 2 receivers with over 50 catches (Edelman and Amendola) with no particular deep threat (or any other kind of receiving threat other than those 2 guys). They ran the ball well and played solid defense in adapting to the loss of a star player. Good teams take lemons and make lemonade.</p><p></p><p>The parallel with the Packers 2015 season sans Nelson is apt.</p><p></p><p>Are Gronkowksi and Nelson worth an average of 8 points per game for their respective teams over a second string or journeyman replacement? That could certainly be a subject for discussion along the lines of MLB's "wins over replacement" analyses if anybody wishes to take on that daunting challenge.</p><p></p><p>In any event, while fully aware of the many unrelated factors at work, in the final analysis the Packer's scored an average of 30 points per game last season compared to 27 this season. The fall off is not as pronounced as the subject of this thread would suggest. Fans have been conditioned to value highlight reel fireworks and fantasy points. Good teams find ways to win. When the offense struggles, the D steps up. When the D struggles, the O finds ways to put up point. And above all, they finish games.</p><p></p><p>Given the collection of good-to-adequate weapons, there's no reason the Packers offense can't be highly productive, and I expect that to be the case as the process of adaptation evolves. Injuries could derail the process, but that's always a reasonable disclaimer.</p><p></p><p>In the end, the Pats finished 12-4 in 2013, and lost on the road in the AFCC game to Denver. In 2015, they finished 12-4 but had home field in the AFCC where the beat Indy.</p><p></p><p>We'll just have to see which way the ball bounces, and sometimes it comes down to just one ball.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="HardRightEdge, post: 628707"] That's obvious, but not precisely correct. In 2013, Gronkowski missed the first 6 games of the season coming off the arm infection and back surgery. He came back to play in the next 6 games, and then blew his ACL in the 7th. where he caught 2 passes. In the 10 games he missed entirely or in part, the Pats went 8-2. In the 6 games he was fully available, the Pats went 4-2. In the 8-2 games, the Pats scored on average 25 points against 17 surrendered. Compare and contrast to the Packers eerily similar 27 - 16 averages this season. In the 4-2 games with Gronkowski in 2013. the averages were 33 for against 27 surrendered. On the season, the Pats had 2 receivers with over 50 catches (Edelman and Amendola) with no particular deep threat (or any other kind of receiving threat other than those 2 guys). They ran the ball well and played solid defense in adapting to the loss of a star player. Good teams take lemons and make lemonade. The parallel with the Packers 2015 season sans Nelson is apt. Are Gronkowksi and Nelson worth an average of 8 points per game for their respective teams over a second string or journeyman replacement? That could certainly be a subject for discussion along the lines of MLB's "wins over replacement" analyses if anybody wishes to take on that daunting challenge. In any event, while fully aware of the many unrelated factors at work, in the final analysis the Packer's scored an average of 30 points per game last season compared to 27 this season. The fall off is not as pronounced as the subject of this thread would suggest. Fans have been conditioned to value highlight reel fireworks and fantasy points. Good teams find ways to win. When the offense struggles, the D steps up. When the D struggles, the O finds ways to put up point. And above all, they finish games. Given the collection of good-to-adequate weapons, there's no reason the Packers offense can't be highly productive, and I expect that to be the case as the process of adaptation evolves. Injuries could derail the process, but that's always a reasonable disclaimer. In the end, the Pats finished 12-4 in 2013, and lost on the road in the AFCC game to Denver. In 2015, they finished 12-4 but had home field in the AFCC where the beat Indy. We'll just have to see which way the ball bounces, and sometimes it comes down to just one ball. [/QUOTE]
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