IT'S ON!! GB@Chi 2025 wildcard round

[OldSchool101]

Uggg....while the temps won't be that bad Saturday, they are predicting it to be very windy (30+ mph gusts), with a mix of snow and rain. I definitely think that will help the Bears, more than it will help the Packers. I see the Bears offensive game plan as one much like the Ravens used. I see them running both Swift and Monangai right at us and roll Williams out for short passes or QB runs.

While that’s all pertinent info and Chicago is a known threat in the Run game, I’d also balance it with “what have you done for me lately” and “head to head” results.

In head to head Weeks 14,16

Chicago Rushed 288/58 or 4.97 per against the Packers. That would currently rank still #3

Green Bay ran at Chi 309/70 or 4.41
against the Bears. That would currently rank #13

So these 2 teams are just over 0.5 per rush apart if each Defense played similar. Across a heavy dose of 40 runs that’s ~21 yards of disparity or a very slight advantage.

Now what gets interesting is what have you done for me lately. Over the last 3 weeks?

Bears 325/66 **4.92 per carry
Packers 495/96 **5.16 per carry

**2 of the 3 Packers Run games were against the “per carry #7,#10” Rushing Defenses + Chicago WK16

**2 of 3 Chicago Contests were against “per carry” #17,#23 Rushing defenses + Green Bay WK16

Also I would argue that the Packers have an advantage of fresh legs and an upgrade in the OL with the return of Zack Tom and Josh Jacobs after Josh got 0 snaps and 13 days rest.
whereas Swift (40 runs) was used like a sugar cane Jack ax$ last weekend and coming off just 6 days rest.

 

[OldSchool101]

One advantage Chicago has a really good pair of TE’s. The Packers do get Josh Whyle back who’s been a pleasant surprise to pair with Luke. We will need “Sticky Hands” Musgrave to perform in this one and continue his slow but methodical rise.

A Bears potential return list of CB, Jaylon Johnson, CB, Kyler Gordon, LB TJ Edwards or WR Rome Odunze can provide some needed boost. But only Odunze missed our first beating meeting and he’s around 5 weeks off a stress fracture in his foot, so not sure he’ll be his great himself or if it’s more a desperation push to get him involved before the season potentially ends

A Packers returning of DE, Lukas Van Ness, RT, Zack Tom, LB, Nick Niemann, WR, Dontayvion Wicks are ALL adds from our first meeting. This should provide Teams help (Nick is 4th in tackles) short range option weapon Wicks, DL help with LVN and OL help with Tom. Also GB has some nice depth pieces with either Oliver, Sorrell or Cox Jr back with ramped up snaps last week.

The Packers are in about the best shape they could be all things considered after a year of constant injuries.

 

[rmontro]

The Packers have really slipped statistically. IIRC, the Packers were in the top 10 both offensively and defensively most of the year, but are no longer in either. The Bears meanwhile, have become a top 10 offensive team, and are actually #3 in rushing. They definitely appear to be moving in the right direction. I think we can move the ball on them though, their defense isn't that great, unless we are really rusty. The Bears are equipped to be in a shootout though.

 

[Guacamole]

I'd like to see us keep our cool in two ways. 1. No off sides from either side of the ball and 2. No stupid unsportsmanlike penalty calls. Intense but keep cool. It's called being focused.

NFL announces Packers-Bears will have a flag-happy referee

Adrian Hill’s crew ranks second in penalties per game, despite only working 14 games - the fewest of any referee in 2025

www.acmepackingcompany.com

 

[OldSchool101]

The Packers have really slipped statistically. IIRC, the Packers were in the top 10 both offensively and defensively most of the year, but are no longer in either. The Bears meanwhile, have become a top 10 offensive team, and are actually #3 in rushing. They definitely appear to be moving in the right direction. I think we can move the ball on them though, their defense isn't that great, unless we are really rusty. The Bears are equipped to be in a shootout though.

It’s 100% accurate that Chicago is very good in rushing. Although they’ve been Top 3 status ALL year. Somewhere along the way several teams passed them I recall Chicago floating at #1/#2 ranked for a minute mid season.

Chicago has a clear advantage running the ball and it’s actually their #2 biggest strength next to their #1 best feature.. Turnovers.

 

[rmontro]

It’s 100% accurate that Chicago is very good in rushing. Although they’ve been Top 3 status ALL year. Somewhere along the way several teams passed them I recall Chicago floating at #1/#2 ranked for a minute mid season.

They're #10 in passing also. We finished at #17.

 

[OldSchool101]

My contention would be to use a similar formula to what Green Bay, Cleveland and Detroit did to mitigate that Chi Run game just recently.
Weeks 14 (4.3 per)
Week 15 (3.6 per)
Week 18 (4.3 per).

The most important task to Winning against Chicago is winning the takeaway battle (or going even). Without Chicago being #1 in takeaways, such as league average area, Chicago would struggle mightily imo. Stent talked about this feature this week. The Packers cannot afford to allow Chicago to punch the ball out our rip it out. If we don’t fumble (including a Sack fumble) our chances of a Victory jump remarkably.

The reason the above becomes important is as some have mentioned. This game will likely be above a 1:1 ratio in Rushing snaps. That = less opportunities to snag an INT.

 

[OldSchool101]

They're #10 in passing also. We finished at #17.

Yeah but that number was also heavily skewed by last week. Certainly you wouldn’t use Week 18 in that comparison?

 

[OldSchool101]

Caleb Wilson has 6 yards per contest more passing than Jordan Love. Their passing numbers are almost identical overall. Promoting Chicago’s passing attack as a “better passing attack” than GB, while statistically splitting hairs true, would be a debate that is feeble level and should be spent looking at other areas imo.

I can get behind Chicago slight advantage Rushing. I’m going to call foul on that Chicago being superior in the throwing the ball argument.

If I’m Chicago I’m certainly not discounting the Packers as inferior passing the ball, nor should us Packer fans. GB is going into this game with their top 5 WR’s healthy. How many games in 2025 have the Packers played with WR1-5 healthy?? We could do worse than Wicks/Golden as our WR4/WR5

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

While that’s all pertinent info and Chicago is a known threat in the Run game, I’d also balance it with “what have you done for me lately” and “head to head” results.

In head to head Weeks 14,16

Chicago Rushed 288/58 or 4.97 per against the Packers. That would currently rank still #3

Green Bay ran at Chi 309/70 or 4.41
against the Bears. That would currently rank #13

So these 2 teams are just over 0.5 per rush apart if each Defense played similar. Across a heavy dose of 40 runs that’s ~21 yards of disparity or a very slight advantage.

Now what gets interesting is what have you done for me lately. Over the last 3 weeks?

Bears 325/66 **4.92 per carry
Packers 495/96 **5.16 per carry

**2 of the 3 Packers Run games were against the “per carry #7,#10” Rushing Defenses + Chicago WK16

**2 of 3 Chicago Contests were against “per carry” #17,#23 Rushing defenses + Green Bay WK16

Also I would argue that the Packers have an advantage of fresh legs and an upgrade in the OL with the return of Zack Tom and Josh Jacobs after Josh got 0 snaps and 13 days rest.
whereas Swift (40 runs) was used like a sugar cane Jack ax$ last weekend and coming off just 6 days rest.

All good stuff, but my point was this. On a day/night when winds are predicted to be gusting at 30+, that will effect both teams passing games in a negative way. It might be enough to force the Packers into running the ball more than they would like to, as well as opting to sticking to shorter passes. Same for the Bears offense. To me, that is an advantage for the Bears offense against the Packers defense, as well as an advantage to the Bears defense against the Packers offense.

Hopefully, Hafley watched the Ravens tape enough times to realize he needs to do more in the box, because if he doesn't, the Bears will do just what the Ravens did, windy or not windy.

 

[milani]

NFL announces Packers-Bears will have a flag-happy referee

Adrian Hill’s crew ranks second in penalties per game, despite only working 14 games - the fewest of any referee in 2025

www.acmepackingcompany.com

Did we get this crew once during the season?

 

[tynimiller]

Caleb Wilson has 6 yards per contest more passing than Jordan Love. Their passing numbers are almost identical overall. Promoting Chicago’s passing attack as a “better passing attack” than GB, while statistically splitting hairs true, would be a debate that is feeble level and should be spent looking at other areas imo.

I can get behind Chicago slight advantage Rushing. I’m going to call foul on that Chicago being superior in the throwing the ball argument.

GB is going into this game with their top 5 WR’s healthy. How many games in 2025 have the Packers played with WR1-5 healthy?? We could do worse than Wicks/Golden as our WR4/WR5

Actually Caleb Wilson does not. (had to)


In other news GB gets great news that Nick Niemann - one of our best special teams guys is back.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Did we get this crew once during the season?

Sounds like Hills "crew" hasn't officiated a Packer game since 2022, against the Patriots.

I'm not excited about reading the following, since I really think refs in general throw WAY TOO MANY flags on defenses for "illegal contact".

"His games also have a 46 percent increase in defensive pass interferences and a 102 percent increase in illegal contact calls, compared to the NFL average. To say the least, he is not going to “let the boys play” on the perimeter of the defense. Aggression at cornerback is strongly disincentivized with this crew."

 

[tynimiller]

Sounds like Hills "crew" hasn't officiated a Packer game since 2022, against the Patriots.

I'm not excited about reading the following, since I really think refs in general throw WAY TOO MANY flags on defenses for "illegal contact".

"His games also have a 46 percent increase in defensive pass interferences and a 102 percent increase in illegal contact calls, compared to the NFL average. To say the least, he is not going to “let the boys play” on the perimeter of the defense. Aggression at cornerback is strongly disincentivized with this crew."

This hurts them more I think. Johnson is an EXTREMELY handsy guy. Watson is going to draw quite a few I suspect

 

[OldSchool101]

All good stuff, but my point was this. On a day/night when winds are predicted to be gusting at 30+, that will effect both teams passing games in a negative way. It might be enough to force the Packers into running the ball more than they would like to, as well as opting to sticking to shorter passes. Same for the Bears offense. To me, that is an advantage for the Bears offense against the Packers defense, as well as an advantage to the Bears defense against the Packers offense.

Hopefully, Hafley watched the Ravens tape enough times to realize he needs to do more in the box, because if he doesn't, the Bears will do just what the Ravens did, windy or not windy.

Yes and I 100% agree they will run more and never meant to insinuate either team would not in adverse weather.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

This hurts them more I think. Johnson is an EXTREMELY handsy guy. Watson is going to draw quite a few I suspect

Johnson is still on concussion protocol, so I am hoping that he won't even be playing.

I am just not a fan of some of the illegal contact calls that I have seen. Many of them are initiated by the offensive player. Not to mention I can't tell you how many illegal picks by a receiver that I have watched this season and they weren't flagged. Finally, I never understood why a 5 yard "illegal contact" penalty is an automatic first down, even it is 4th and 50.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Yes and I 100% agree they will run more and never meant to insinuate either team would not in adverse weather.

I don't remember where I read it yesterday, but the writer made a good point. He said that the Packers were probably a team better suited to play in a dome due to their speed and deep threat ability on offense.

 

[OldSchool101]

Johnson is still on concussion protocol, so I am hoping that he won't even be playing.

I am just not a fan of some of the illegal contact calls that I have seen. Many of them are initiated by the offensive player. Not to mention I can't tell you how many illegal picks by a receiver that I have watched this season and they weren't flagged. Finally, I never understood why a 5 yard "illegal contact" penalty is an automatic first down, even it is 4th and 50.

it’ll be interesting to see how the Refs play this. IMO once the playoffs arrive, the flags seemingly do not get used as often. Now I don’t know or that’s because it a change in the officiating crew or what. It just always seems like I’m yelling at the TV calling for a holding flag on our opponent and then I realize the Refs are “letting them play”

 

[OldSchool101]

I don't remember where I read it yesterday, but the writer made a good point. He said that the Packers were probably a team better suited to play in a dome due to their speed and deep threat ability on offense.

I know this sounds unfounded because it’s merely my eye test, but I actually believe these 2 teams are pretty overall balanced strength wise. I just have this gut feeling that it’s more about the energy the players bring to the table than it is rankings and all that. Either team can win if they show up to win and I really don’t see a noticeable advantage that wows me. Partly because we just played them and both times Chicago played from behind. I give them credit for giving us a scare, but GB played more winning football minutes across that gameclock. We just kinda let up and melted some at the end of both games.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

it’ll be interesting to see how the Refs play this. IMO once the playoffs arrive, the flags seemingly do not get used as often. Now I don’t know or that’s because it a change in the officiating crew or what. It just always seems like I’m yelling at the TV calling for a holding flag on our opponent and then I realize the Refs are “letting them play”

Well my guess is that for the playoffs and beyond, the "best" crews are used. In a normal football week, you would have 16 crews. We are down to 6 and soon, will be down to 4, 2 and 1.

 

[tynimiller]

Johnson is still on concussion protocol, so I am hoping that he won't even be playing.

I am just not a fan of some of the illegal contact calls that I have seen. Many of them are initiated by the offensive player. Not to mention I can't tell you how many illegal picks by a receiver that I have watched this season and they weren't flagged. Finally, I never understood why a 5 yard "illegal contact" penalty is an automatic first down, even it is 4th and 50.

Just means we will have many here screaming bloody murder when our defender grabs them and they'll claim it was nothing but then a Bears player isn't flagged because a finger hits our guy......cannot wait....

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I know this sounds unfounded because it’s merely my eye test, but I actually believe these 2 teams are pretty overall balanced strength wise. I just have this gut feeling that it’s more about the energy the players bring to the table than it is rankings and all that. Either team can win if they show up to win and I really don’t see a noticeable advantage that wows me. Partly because we just played them and both times Chicago played from behind.

Oh I fully agree and it is why I was hoping that once we got locked into the #7 seed, the Bears would get the #2 seed. I just think we match up better against them and as you said, the 2 previous games are very recent. Quite frankly, I think the Packers were clearly the better team in both of those games.

I may sound like I am hemming and hawing about the weather favoring the Bears and thus they will win. I still think the Packers will win, but I do firmly believe the predicted weather will be an advantage to the Bears. If all the heating units on the Packers sideline "mysteriously fail" again, I want a full investigation.

 

[OldSchool101]

I wouldn’t go conservative with Chicago in the 4th quarter either.

If I’m Matt, I’d play to Win with 5 minutes left like it’s 0-0 even if we’re up 10 points. Chicagos calling card all season is 12 4Q and GWD comebacks. Just accept it as fact that we don’t play Chicago the same as traditional team if we’re winning 24-17 mid 4th Quarter etc.

The game motto should be

“Keep the Throttle Open until the Gameclock Expires!” No mentality of “playing it safe” favors this time

 

[OldSchool101]

Just means we will have many here screaming bloody murder when our defender grabs them and they'll claim it was nothing but then a Bears player isn't flagged because a finger hits our guy......cannot wait....

Come on into the live thread. You won’t be disappointed! If you don’t get enough complaining let me know I’ll chime in for the group a little extra

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

If that's the case; I actually don't see a benefit to giving them a long field. It'll just tire us out. We should probably go for it anywhere near the 50.

As long as it is 4th and 2 or less, might be a good strategy. Also, if the Packers do go for it. Please don't run up the damn middle!