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Indicators favor Steelers...uh oh.

Discussion in 'Packer Fan Forum' started by Hutson, Jan 29, 2011.

  1. Hutson

    Hutson Cheesehead

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    I certainly hope they're wrong, but this is pretty compelling info nonetheless. It comes from STATS' Jon Dewan, who's better known for his baseball work, but seems to have a formula for selecting Super Bowl winners that's been fairly accurate. Here's the email from this week:
    ------

    The betting lines currently favor the Packers, but the Super Bowl Prediction system picks the Steelers.


    In my Super Bowl prediction system there are 12 different indicators, each one taken by itself predicts the Super Bowl winner 55% to 67% of the time. Taken collectively, the indicators have an even better track record. The system favors the team that wins the most indicators and it has predicted 16 of the last 20 Super Bowl winners.


    This year the prediction system picks the Pittsburgh Steelers to win their sixth franchise Super Bowl and third in the last six years.


    Last year the system had the New Orleans Saints winning 7 of the 12 indicators. That also went against the grain given that the Indianapolis Colts were favored in Las Vegas. Now again, the system goes with the underdog. I like that. The system has a strong track record going against the line.


    But I must admit. Last year I called it a toss-up. The prediction system has not performed well when a team wins less than eight of the indicators. Going back all-time, the system is 7-7 with less than eight indicators.


    That’s not the case this year. The Steelers win nine of the twelve indicators. Teams with eight or more indicators have won 21 of 26 Super Bowls. Here is the scoreboard of all the indicators, with the best indicators at the bottom.



    Note that two of the three predictors that favor the Green Bay Packers are weaker ones:
    [SIZE=-1]Category
    [SIZE=-1]Winning Percentage [/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]Team with Advantage[/SIZE]
    [SIZE=-1]Opponent Net Passing Yards[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1].545[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]Packers[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]
    Rushing Yards[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1].568[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]Steelers[/SIZE]
    [SIZE=-1]Points Scored[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1].568[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]Packers[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]
    Rushing Yards / Attempt[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1].591[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]Steelers[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]
    Opponent Rushing Yards / Attempt[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1].591[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]Steelers[/SIZE]
    [SIZE=-1]Fewer Net Passing Yards[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1].614[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]Steelers[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]
    Turnover Differential[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1].614[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]Steelers[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]
    Opponent Rushing Yards[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1].636[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]Steelers[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]
    Point Differential[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1].648[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]Packers[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]
    Regular Season Record[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1].648[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]Steelers[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]
    Opponent Total Yards / Game[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1].659[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]Steelers[/SIZE]
    [SIZE=-1]Points Allowed[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1].670[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]Steelers[/SIZE]

    There are five defensive indicators, four offensive ones, and three based on overall stats. The strongest indicators overall are the defensive ones.
    [/SIZE]
     
  2. Wood Chipper

    Wood Chipper Fantasy Football Guru

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    you cant factor in the intangibles buddy
     
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  3. bradwillrockyou

    bradwillrockyou Cheesehead

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    Can't say I appreciate the negativity update coming from a Packer fan ...
     
  4. GoSlash27

    GoSlash27 Cheesehead

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    I'll say the same thing I always say: The predictions mean nothing. The game is the only thing that will settle this.
     
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  5. BadKarma

    BadKarma Cheesehead

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    Agreed.
    They've done studies, you know. 60% of the time it works, every time.
    Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital.
     
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  6. LombardiChick

    LombardiChick Win or lose, I love this team.

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    We're not going to lose because of this, we're not going to lose because of a billboard...if we lose, we're going to lose because we don't want it more.

    We're a six seed in the Super Bowl. We've already screwed with conventional wisdom. We just won three playoff games a lot of people didn't think we were going to win.

    We're going to go all "uh oh" because of this? After all we've been through in the last five weeks?

    Not me. Maybe they'll really disappoint me next week - it's possible - but I honestly think that if their minds are right (and dirty play/headhunting on Pittsburgh's part is not a factor), they can do this.

    We beat odds just to get here. We can beat them for four more quarters.
     
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  7. Cheesehead Brittany

    Cheesehead Brittany Cheesehead

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    studies also show that four out of five doctors like everything :icon_rolleyes:
     
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  8. figtab

    figtab Cheesehead

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    These indicators mean squat to me because the packers are the first ever 6th seed from the NFC to make it to the super bowl. Don't forget that this team has been injured for most of the year on defense and just started getting healthy towards the end. These indicators are ridiculous at best. The packers are better than their record shows and here is an indicator you should look at the packers have lost by a combined total of 20 points all season and have never been down more than 7 in a game. This packers team could have of eaisly gone undefeated if healthy. The packers are the healthiest they have been all season going into the superbowl. The steelers just lost their all pro center. And their line is weak against the blitz. The game is won and lost at the line of scrimmage.
     
  9. GreenBlood

    GreenBlood Banned Banned

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    Looks like they're giving us about a 35% chance of winning. That's better than they were giving us for the first two playoff games.
     
  10. Murgen

    Murgen MechaPackzilla

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    Remember, enjoy the ride. We may win or lose on SB Sunday, but we should all be enjoying the journey! Having your team in the SB is a rare thing (at least for us Packer fans). So lets enjoy it to the max. I am LOVING the experience of seeing GB up in lights one more time! Been a long time since 97.

    There is a reason they play the games.
     
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  11. GoSlash27

    GoSlash27 Cheesehead

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    Werd. "Act like you've been here before". And my own addendum:" Act like you'll be here again".
    Saves a lot of embarrassing behavior.
     
  12. bozz_2006

    bozz_2006 Cheesehead

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    I am not surprised the system has the Steelers winning. I wonder how the indicators had us ranked in our past three games. I wouldn't be surprised if it had us losing all those either. With all the injuries it took a really, really long time for this team to gel.
     
  13. JBlood

    JBlood Cheesehead

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    According to Advanced NFL Stats (the guru in football stats) the single most important factor(offense, defense, special teams, turnovers, penalties) in winning is offensive passing efficiency(Advanced NFL Stats: Passing = Winning). The Packers easily beat the Steelers in this category.

    Add to this the all-important 1st Down Success Rate (Smart Football), where the Packers dominate the Steelers.

    Therefore, the Packers are likely to win.

    Why do they even bother to play the game? :chisux::viksux:
     
  14. Stillernation

    Stillernation Cheesehead

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    Dont worry Pack fans,they got something critical wrong- "this year the prediction system picks the Pittsburgh Steelers to win their SIXTH franchise Super Bowl" LOL.We are going for the SEVENTH!!! These mean nothing,lets just play the game......
     
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  15. JBlood

    JBlood Cheesehead

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    I know how excited you must be. I remember how excited I was in 1961 when we won our 7th.
     
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  16. Claymaker

    Claymaker Cheesehead

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    Does this factor in opponents? Packers have played 19 games and 11 of those games were against teams with 10 or more wins.

    Packers and Steelers I believe have played 5 common opponents:

    Atlanta - Pitt won in overtime without BR, Packers lost one close and crushed them the 2nd game

    Miami - Packers lost in OT, Pitt won, but really lost the game, gift from the refs. Miami recovered fumble in EZ to end the game but ti was ruled they couldn't tell who recovered (BS) and Steelers kicked FG next play

    Buffalo - Packers crushed them, Pitt won in overtime - infamous Stevie Johnson dropped TD game

    New England - Steelers got crushed, at home. Packers lost by 4 with a backup QB

    NYJ - Packers won 9-0, Steelers lost then beat them in playoffs
     
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  17. armand34

    armand34 Cheesehead

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    looking at common opponents is one way to gauge the Strength of either team...regardless, I just want to see Rodgers be protected and the rest will fall into place
     
  18. MackemPacker

    MackemPacker Cheesehead

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    Giants were the 5th seed.

    I don't buy these types of formulas, there's too many intangibles. All I know is, if we play our best game, and the Steelers play their best game, I still like my Packers in this game.
     
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  19. armand34

    armand34 Cheesehead

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    nope
     
  20. packerfan4ever

    packerfan4ever Cheesehead

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    my indicator is my gut feelings witch is the pack wins,I don't know the why just know they will,think it is because a lot of the players say they can do this,and keeping their focus on the game,I can be wrong of course but I knew they would win all three games,haven't been wrong yet I hope to be up in green bay when they bring the trophy home.go pack I have faith in our team.
     
  21. PackersFanfromCali80

    PackersFanfromCali80 Cheesehead

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    The thing is the Steelers have yet to see an offense like the Packers in the playoffs. The last time Pittsburgh saw a somewhat potent offense during the season was against New England and Brady lit them up. I am more concerned about when we are on defense. Even if BR is able to scramble away, the defense has to take away his options. Ward is still troublesome for opponents and Mike Wallace has amazing speed and Heath Miller is a physical tight end. Who is our fastest DB? Shields or Williams? They stay with him and perhaps get some help with C-Wood or Collins to help him.
     
  22. Murgen

    Murgen MechaPackzilla

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    The intangibles blow formulas away come game time. One turnover, and the formula is blown up.
     
  23. Pack88

    Pack88 Cheesehead

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    A better way to view those stats is view them in relation to each of the teams involved! Obvioulsy Pitts was #1 in scoring defense but GB #2 by a fraction same things with so many of those #, outside of avg rush and and rush defense. So looking at a pile of numbers w\o context means little. I look at those games where Pittsburgh played top 10 passing offenses and they got lit up so we shall see on Sunday and one fan base or the other will be happy and it will not be a comparison of 12 rankings that win or lose the game but the team most ready to play that day
    Pack88
     
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  24. pittguy578

    pittguy578 Cheesehead

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    Only reason you were a sixth seed was because all of the injuries..If all of Green Bays players had been healthy the Packers would have been a 2 seed..
     
  25. bubbahotep

    bubbahotep Cheesehead

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    Technically, if the touchdown Calvin Johnson had against the Bears counted in week 1, we would have been a 2 seed. But that's water under the bridge.
     

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