Zero2Cool
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By Pete Dougherty
Speculating on whether Brett Favre will retire is futile and a colossal waste of time. So here goes.
Based solely on observing the Packers quarterback's behavior and demeanor from the start of training camp through this week, at every press conference and on the field, the guess here is he'll come back for at least one more season.
The main factors:
# First and foremost, Favre clearly enjoys playing and thinks he can continue to do so at a high level.
# After two years of demoralizing losses, there are signs of hope for a playoff run next year.
# Favre's recent comments suggest that after the last two seasons, he can handle the risk that things won't work out as he'd like.
Other, lower-priority factors that can't be dismissed:
# His $11 million salary for 2007. That's a lot of money, and as wealthy as Favre is, this isn't Bill Gates we're talking about.
# The chance to break Dan Marino's record for career touchdown passes, which is football's equivalent of baseball's career home-run record. Marino has 420; Favre has 413.
That's a solid formula for Favre's return in 2007, when he'll turn 38.
It's just a guess, and only Favre and his family know what he's likely to do, though several Packers sources also figure he'll be back for another year.
Regardless, the Packers should hope he comes back.
There's a school of thought, not without merit, that the Packers aren't headed to the Super Bowl next year anyway, so why not start fresh with Aaron Rodgers, see whether he has what it takes to succeed Favre, and go from there? Then build around Rodgers or replace him, but either way, find out what he has.
I don't see it that way.
Though Favre no longer is an elite quarterback, he's one of the better quarterbacks in the game and more likely than not will remain so next year.
Rodgers, on the other hand, just turned 23 and hasn't shown in two training camps that the Packers must get him on the field next year. He still has much to prove.
Is Favre flawed and declining physically? Certainly. But capable of playing winning football? Certainly.
Really, how many quarterbacks are clearly better and would have led the Packers to a better record this year? Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer, Tom Brady, Vince Young. Then a bunch of maybes and probably nots.
New Orleans' Drew Brees? Maybe. Perhaps a strong maybe. But if he were on the Packers he also wouldn't have a one-of-a-kind player in Reggie Bush occupying defenses, plus a halfback in his prime in Deuce McAllister.
Maybe San Diego's Philip Rivers. But how would he do if instead of LaDainian Tomlinson and Antonio Gates, he had Ahman Green and Bubba Franks or David Martin?
Maybe Dallas' Tony Romo, but he wouldn't have Terrell Owens, Terry Glenn and Jason Witten as multiple weapons in the passing game.
Maybe Seattle's Matt Hasselbeck, but he couldn't stay healthy and is only 8-6 playing with superior talent. You know Favre will be on the field every week.
Then there's Atlanta's Michael Vick. Who knows what to make of this guy? A singular talent and difference maker, to be sure. But he may never be a good enough passer to carry a team to the Super Bowl. The Packers are 7-8, the Falcons 7-7. If you switched him and Favre, would either team be any better or worse? Doubt it.
Steve McNair is having a good year in Baltimore, but would Favre be any worse with that defense backing him up? The guess here is he'd be a little better.
The New York Jets' Chad Pennington is a smart game manager with a broken-down arm. He's thrown one more interception than Favre. If you were the Jets, who would you rather have?
Then there's a group of young quarterbacks who've had problems this year but could or should surpass Favre next season.
Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger is a good bet if he can get that debilitating and psychologically scarring motorcycle accident behind him.
The New York Giants' Eli Manning still has potential though he's faded terribly after a good start.
Philadelphia's Donovan McNabb probably would rank ahead of Favre had he not torn a knee ligament, though Jeff Garcia's performance in McNabb's place suggests a closer call than it appeared earlier in the season.
Buffalo's J.P. Losman also is coming on, but he must do it for more than half a season.
Given all that, Favre still could be a top-10 quarterback with more weapons around him. Yes, he still makes his share of bad decisions and must go further in accepting his new limitations.
During Thursday night's 9-7 win over Minnesota, Favre had a couple of shaky throws that could have cost him. But the interception returned for a touchdown was the fault of rookie Greg Jennings, who ran the wrong pattern. Favre's other interception, while a questionable decision, also left Jennings with part of the blame for not finishing his improvised go route so he could compete for the ball.
That assessment, by the way, comes from Mike McCarthy, who has been anything but a Favre apologist in his first season as the Packers' coach. When Favre has made bad decisions, McCarthy has bluntly said so.
This week, McCarthy wants Favre to challenge defensive backs in one-on-one coverage, though he wants the risks to be calculated and not thrown into double coverage.
"There's a proper way to throw the go route," McCarthy said. "There's technique in how you teach the route, where the ball location is supposed to be. That's different than rolling out and throwing it up and hoping the guy comes down with the ball. But, hey, it goes back to players making plays. If you have a one-on-one down the sideline with a guy based on the design of the play and the opportunity you have to take that shot. You cannot score points throwing three-step (drops) all day."
So find Favre another weapon — and legitimate weapons are hard to find — and he might be a comeback-player-of-the-year story next year. He has Donald Driver, who's played better than ever this season. But after that?
Well, there's Green, who's game and powerful and has had a surprisingly strong return from major quadriceps surgery to remain the Packers' top running back. But he's not the explosive player he was three years ago.
That's about it.
Next year, Jennings should be better after hobbling through the final two-thirds of this season on a bad ankle. The offensive line will be more experienced after starting three rookies most of the season.
But it's up to General Manager Ted Thompson to come up with another playmaker of note, whether it be a receiver, a tight end or a running back. Favre needs somebody who draws extra attention from defenses.
Favre has spent 15 years making Packers players around him better than they were. Now he needs the favor returned.
Pete Dougherty covers the Packers for the Press-Gazette. E-mail him at [email protected]
Remember, I said this last off season. Brett will play in 2007!
