I don't think Mike and Ted are going anywhere

[Matt39]

I'm not going to waste the time to find and list all the counter examples I can find both on the Packers and other teams.... but off the top of my head... Donald Driver... 7th round pick.... Tom Brady 6th rounder.....

I don't think Bill Polian is ignorant of late round success stories. Of coarse there are always outliers that clearly wasn't what Bill was saying, he was saying that in he extensive research there wasn't any statistical probability to build a team with those picks, essentially his view is that no amount of analysis is more likely to yield you a "hit" in that part of the draft, it's all random and the odds say that you are not likely find a significant contribution to your team there.

 

[Matt39]

I've probably said at least 100 times, there are a thousand ways to Rome. I've also said there are a lot of ways to build an NFL roster. I've also said none are without pitfalls or benefits.

Veterans who round out roster spots are filled with 4-7th round draft picks, you probably don't even see the irony in your statement.

Anyway, you've now claimed rounds 4-7 are worthless and there are basically no cap implications to worry about today. I'm not sure how much more of your insight into the league I could take in one day, LOL

You have now stated that the 4-7 round picks is my claim twice and not acknowledged that it is a HOF general managers yet? Do you think you are more knowledgeable about this subject that BP? As to the cap implications, how many salary cap casualties do you see in todays NFL vs 10 years ago for players in their prime? Almost none, that is a big change and absolutely has changed the dynamics and risk of FA in that period.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I'm guessing that statistically your 1st - 3rd round busts are offset by your 4th - UDFA gains?

 

[swhitset]

I don't think Bill Polian is ignorant of late round success stories. Of coarse there are always outliers that clearly wasn't what Bill was saying, he was saying that in he extensive research there wasn't any statistical probability to build a team with those picks, essentially his view is that no amount of analysis is more likely to yield you a "hit" in that part of the draft, it's all random and the odds say that you are not likely find a significant contribution to your team there.

I don't think those statistics help much... obviously some scouts and GMs are better at finding value in later rounds than others ...

 

[Mondio]

You have now stated that the 4-7 round picks is my claim twice and not acknowledged that it is a HOF general managers yet? Do you think you are more knowledgeable about this subject that BP? As to the cap implications, how many salary cap casualties do you see in todays NFL vs 10 years ago for players in their prime? Almost none, that is a big change and absolutely has changed the dynamics and risk of FA in that period.

oh, so you don't think rounds 4-7 are a waste? or are you using a guys name to try and Bolster something you're not claiming? and what's helped the cap is a rookie salary pool. There are cap casualties every year, there are cap implications to every signing and great care is still used in maintaining a healthy cap. Every year successful teams have players they can't re-sign that are coming off rookie or cheaper contracts. It hasn't ended. Because they are released before they can sign them to a big contract doesn't mean they aren't a cap casualty. If a team knows they can't afford them, call them what they are.

and I blasted off a half dozen of those 4-7 rounders playing right now today, for the GB packers that are big time contributors to this team without even thinking about it. I think BP can take his and your claim and shove it.

 

[Mondio]

and FYI, Ted will also be a HOF GM. He'd probably tell you draft picks in any round are valuable. guess what, I"m claiming it too

 

[Matt39]

oh, so you don't think rounds 4-7 are a waste? or are you using a guys name to try and Bolster something you're not claiming? and what's helped the cap is a rookie salary pool. There are cap casualties every year, there are cap implications to every signing and great care is still used in maintaining a healthy cap. Every year successful teams have players they can't re-sign that are coming off rookie or cheaper contracts. It hasn't ended. Because they are released before they can sign them to a big contract doesn't mean they aren't a cap casualty. If a team knows they can't afford them, call them what they are.

and I blasted off a half dozen of those 4-7 rounders playing right now today, for the GB packers that are big time contributors to this team without even thinking about it. I think BP can take his and your claim and shove it.

Clearly stuck a nerve? For someone who claims there are many roads to Rome you are clearly perturbed that anyone (and a HOF'er) would use or espouse another path?

For the claim, I thought it was an interesting view by a clear expert in the subject matter and I think that there is definitely some truth to it even as you look at the Packers roster, as I stated before they seem to defy the 4th rounder odds as they have found consistent starters/contributor there but I think they probably over invest in 5-7 round and UDFA projects without enough yield for their investment at least when the investment means not using the other avenues available to them.

 

[Mondio]

not really. What perturbs me is people coming in claiming stupid stuff like 4-7th rounders are a waste and salary caps aren't important in decision making.

was it earth shattering to you to learn that after 150 or so of the most highly rated players after taking into account trades and comp picks have been chosen and you start the 5th round that the likelihood of finding star players goes down? Do you go to a tree lot on December 26th and wonder why all there aren't very many good ones left too? I don't need Bill to tell me that. I also don't believe they are a waste to put resources in either, as evidenced by our fairly substantial number of 4-7th round picks that have contributed greatly to our success over the years.

But hey, maybe more resources should be put into bringing in veterans to round out the roster, just hope they don't have Jeff Saturday syndrome. Because that happens too.

None of this matters unless it works out. none of it. You can cut all UDFA's and anybody fromt he 4th round on and fill them with only 3rd round and up. and unless you hit it doesn't matter. If you sign X in the offseason and he gets hurt, your roster is stressed. If you sign Y in the offseason and his play drops, your roster is stressed. For every old declining vet that is available, you're now wasted a roster spot on a younger cheaper guy that could help you for years. Ted hit with Charles Woodson, he also hit with Tramon WIlliams. Think the Texans wouldn't like to have kept his roster spot available. For every vet you don't sign you save some money and you chance having to put inexperience on the field at important times.

If you don't get the decision "right" you were wrong. So what you're really getting at, is you expect Ted to be perfect? or just sign more vets, and get them all "right"? LOL

 

[longtimefan]

Ted may step down

http://www.packersnews.com/story/sp...1/morning-buzz-packers-battle-north/96056334/

GM Ted Thompson is under contract through 2018, but this could be the year he steps aside and becomes a senior scouting advise

 

[longtimefan]

Ted may step down

Ohhh

One year to the day

 

[Ogsponge]

One has to truly wonder if mm’s job is in serious jeopardy? I mean a new GM usually wants to hire his own staff. If the new GM ends up being someone from outside of the organization, MM’s fate may be sealed.

 

[longtimefan]

One has to truly wonder if mm’s job is in serious jeopardy? I mean a new GM usually wants to hire his own staff. If the new GM ends up being someone from outside of the organization, MM’s fate may be sealed.

What I would guess is that he stays mostly because Aaron knows this better then MM...Might be to much to change this late in Aarons career..

But if Wolf is the GM, or someone internally, or outside GM, they may have other ideas.

Thats just me speculating.

 

[AmishMafia]

I suspect the succession plan is already in motion. There is probably a date in mind for TT and decisions like hiring a new coach or extending McCarthy beyond TTs reign would be a mutual decision with his successor, presumably Elliot Wolf.

Firing Capers tells me MM and TT are not going anywhere this season. I am betting that the next action is an extension for MM. This will help the search for a new DC.

 

[AmishMafia]

I suspect the succession plan is already in motion. There is probably a date in mind for TT and decisions like hiring a new coach or extending McCarthy beyond TTs reign would be a mutual decision with his successor, presumably Elliot Wolf.

Firing Capers tells me MM and TT are not going anywhere this season. I am betting that the next action is an extension for MM. This will help the search for a new DC.

Well, what the he'l do I know. I just read the other thread.

 

[longtimefan]

Well, what the he'l do I know. I just read the other thread.

Thought we don't doubt you? Per your fire wolf thread