High/Low vs. Consensus

[Dantés]

Who are you high on as compared to the majority of draft rankings? Who are you low on?

Note: Not who you are high/low; we all have our favorites or guys we don't like. But specifically compared to the general consensus, where are you off the norm?

 

[Dantés]

High:

• Devin Bush Jr, LB, Michigan: Bush is widely regarded as LB2 behind White and has been projected by many as a guy who belongs in the 20's. I think he's the best LB in this class and would be fine with him as the pick at #12.
• Devin Ozigbo, RB, Nebraska: Ozigbo is projected by a lot of analysts as a later round pick, but I think he offers a lot of value in the 4th and could go higher. His running style reminds me of Michael Turner, but he has some receiving skills.
• Max Scharping, OT, Northern Illinois: I often see Scharping projected onto the 3rd day, but when I watch him, I see a quality NFL starting tackle. He has the size/strength and movement skills to stick outside; gave Burns a lot of problems.
• Mecole Hardman, WR, Georgia: Hardman has been pegged as a gadget player, and I understand why, but after review he accomplished more in college than I had realized. He's further along, in terms of route skill, than, say, Parris Campbell.
• Byron Murphy, CB, Washington: Murphy is under 6' and ran 4.55. However, I think he otherwise has the athleticism you want and is the best CB on tape in this class; I much prefer him to Greedy Williams.

 

[Dantés]

Low:

• D.K. Metcalf, WR, Mississippi: The talent is outstanding, but I am leery of these receivers who ran super limited route trees on only one side of the field.
• N'Keal Harry, WR, Arizona State: Harry doesn't separate. People like to compare this type of player to Dez Bryant. That's not impossible, but more often they're Laquon Treadwell.
• Johnathan Abram, S, Miss. State: Abram hits really hard. That's basically it. He's average in coverage, and his consistency defending the run is hit and miss given that he goes for the kill shot so often.
• Brian Burns, ED, Florida State: Burns has freaky movement skills, but on tape he is rail thin and a liability against the run. I've see this type of prospect bust far too often to sign up in the top 20 (Dion Jordan, Aaron Maybin, Leonard Floyd, etc).
• Rashan Gary, ED, Michigan: I really liked Gary on tape, but he's raw and would need to take to coaching to unlock his talent. What I've heard about his attitude make me believe he won't be very coachable.

Borderline- Josh Allen, ED, UK: I'm not *low* on Allen-- I definitely think he's a top 16 pick and would welcome him to the Packers. However, I do think that a team that lines him up and asks him to just rush tackles straight up down in and down out will be disappointed.

 

[GleefulGary]

Brian Burns > Josh Allen.

 

[Dantés]

Brian Burns > Josh Allen.

At many things. Being big enough to hang in the NFL might not be one of them.

 

[thequick12]

Brian Burns > Josh Allen.

Not even close burns doesn't even look good in his highlights. He's the next Jamal Reynolds for some team hopefully not the Packers.

Josh Allen if he goes to the right coach, will be a 10 sack, 3 ints, 3 ff a year guy from both the ilb and olb spot. He'd do very well in pettines scheme, for some of the same reasons Devin white and devin bush are arguably more valuable to gb now than they might have been under capers

 

[thequick12]

I think I'm higher than most wr penny Hart and I'd agree about mecole hardman. And Max scharping

 

[GleefulGary]

At many things. Being big enough to hang in the NFL might not be one of them.

I ain't worried.

It's amazing the difference between college routine and pro routine, and what that can do for a body.

 

[Dantés]

I ain't worried.

It's amazing the difference between college routine and pro routine, and what that can do for a body.

It's possible. But I don't trust it. It's been far from automatic for players who looked like Burns coming out. The opposite, actually.

 

[morango]

I’m busy pimping on these guys who some don’t think as highly of as I do.

Christian Wilkins. I think his physical talent would be enough. But add in all the intangibles and he’s a slam dunk for me at 12.

Kahale Warring. I know he’s not under the radar any more. I would pick him over Irv Smith. Honestly.

John Cominsky. Big strong 5T DE who was recruited as an option QB. A project worth undertaking, IMO.

Germaine Pratt. I agree with Brandon on him (gasp)

Karan Higdon. I just like his name.

*****

NOT a fan of the following young dudes.

EDGE Brian Burns and Jachai Polite.
TE Irv Smith
OT Jawaan Taylor and Kaleb McGary
WR DJ Metcalf
DE Rashan Gary

There’s probably more but I can’t think of any more right now.

 

[OldSchool101]

I like Terry McClaurin, but as a sleeper in the mid rounds. I remember him being ranked as the 20th receiver in this draft not long ago. That would put him as a late 5-6th round pick. I hope he still is because I’d snatch him easily round 4 and I’d strongly consider him at #75 if there’s not a 2nd round talent still waiting to dance. I think he’s a poor mans Parris, but he has potential in a year or two to develop into a solid player.
Devin Singleterry is fun to watch and even with a poor combine is going to transition. His strong point is making guys miss. He’s a poor mans Barry Sanders and reminds me a little of Jonathan Franklin from a couple years ago. He’s smart and well rounded and will be a formidable #2 RB in many systems.

I’ve been watching Brian Burns closely for over a year now. He’s one of those players we individually have that we personally take an interest in and follow. I was really impressed early and his main pitfall was weight/size to convert then as it was just before the combine. I said he could gain weight and still easily be above average speed if that was a concern. 6+ months later he gains weight and literally almost got faster. But combine results to me don’t impress me like they did for TT and many amateur expert fans (Burks, Spriggs and Janis are great examples of strong combines that didn’t translate) I put more emphasis on the program and specific development and history of the player, along with character and injury reputations. Combine gives players a + or a - but that doesn’t make a 2nd rounder suddenly into a top 10 pick; DK Metcalf is another example of this overzealous instant fame. He’s worthy of round 1 but top 10? No thanks!
I loved Burns long before the combine so don’t take this personally.. but he’s no top 10 pick. He was a mid day 2 pick that earned the right to get Day 1 chatter AFTER the combine. He reminds me of a certain kid from Texas San Antonio last year, Davenport. If you had put them head to head I’d take Davenport even after his pedestrian rookie season. Davenport parallels Burns except Davenport was already pretty much NFL size BEFORE similarly gaining 30 pounds and peaking just shy of 270lb. Burns is a slightly smaller version of Davenport and by no means any better. Davenport was a reach at #14 for the Saints.
Burns should realistically go top #30. He’s a reach at #20 and anything under #15 is getting ridiculous.

That similarly goes for Devin Bush, just because he has a comparable combine doesn’t make him Devin White. He’s a fine player at #20-#30, but he’s not a value inside #15, he’s a reach.

 

[Dantés]

Having a comparable combine doesn't make Bush into Devin White, but being a better player on the field makes him better than Devin White.

 

[OldSchool101]

Having a comparable combine doesn't make Bush into Devin White, but being a better player on the field makes him better than Devin White.

Better on the field? I’ve got a riddle..what do the numbers 256 to 161 represent?

Answer: the number of successful tackles each player has been involved in during the last 2 seasons (Bush has 1 less game credited in 2 years; 26 vs 25 games)

 

[Dantés]

Better on the field? I’ve got a riddle..what do the numbers 256 to 161 represent?

Answer: the number of successful tackles each player has been involved in during the last 2 seasons (Bush has 1 less game credited in 2 years; 26 vs 25 games)

I don't think tackle volume is a good measure for judging linebacker play.

I prefer Bush because more instinctive and assignment sound. He plays under control and is a fluid, instinctive mover in coverage.

I balk at the idea that I *only* consider Bush to be better than White because of the combine. The combine important because it proved that Bush is basically as bad and as athletic as White. But I always preferred Bush on the field.

 

[OldSchool101]

I don't think tackle volume is a good measure for judging linebacker play.

I prefer Bush because more instinctive and assignment sound. He plays under control and is a fluid, instinctive mover in coverage.

I balk at the idea that I *only* consider Bush to be better than White because of the combine. The combine important because it proved that Bush is basically as bad and as athletic as White. But I always preferred Bush on the field.

I never said “you only” considered him better due to the combine. I made a general assertion that the combine results dont constitute a better athlete. It wasn’t specifically directed at you but rather the actual rise in general popularity both in this forum and elsewhere. Measurable are obviously just one piece of the whole pie, I know you’re smarter than that Dante.
I like Bush, heck I’d even be happy with Bush. Like you said with TJ it’s a matter of the cost isn’t it?

But that said, there’s no concrete evidence that Bush is a better athlete at this stage IMO. We can debate it until we’re blue in the face, but the statistical edge clearly goes to White, anything more is just conjecture. I’ve read several arguments comparing the two, but it always seems to come back to an authors reluctance to state a decisive position.
You’re certainly entitled to thinking he’s better than White, that’s your opinion. Better to have one than be afraid of offering one altogether.
Heck maybe he’ll pass White. How the heck do I know.
Maybe he had more potential. He certainly doesn’t have better historical production or at least not in the last couple years. Tackles for loss is pretty significant too, those generally show intensity and ability to finish. Both are good, but White is clearly superior there also.

 

[RepStar15]

High:
- Devin Bush
- Jonah Williams
- AJ Brown
- Max crosby
- Mark Fields
- Darnell Savage
- Daniel Jones
- Will Grier

Low:
- TJ Hockenson at 12
- Any TE besides TJ hockenson at 30
- Montez Sweat
- Kyler Murray
- Dwayne Haskins
- Josh Jacobs

***I added QBs in there, not anything Packer related***

 

[GleefulGary]

Brian Burns and Marcus Davenport aren't remotely comparable as players. They have way different games. I've been watching Burns since he was in HS. He's incredibly bendy, and a speed rusher.

Davenport wasn't that bendy, played with power, and excels in the run game. Very, very different players.

 

[Dantés]

I never said “you only” considered him better due to the combine. I made a general assertion that the combine results dont constitute a better athlete. It wasn’t specifically directed at you but rather the actual rise in general popularity both in this forum and elsewhere. Measurable are obviously just one piece of the whole pie, I know you’re smarter than that Dante.
I like Bush, heck I’d even be happy with Bush. Like you said with TJ it’s a matter of the cost isn’t it?

But that said, there’s no concrete evidence that Bush is a better athlete at this stage IMO. We can debate it until we’re blue in the face, but the statistical edge clearly goes to White, anything more is just conjecture. I’ve read several arguments comparing the two, but it always seems to come back to an authors reluctance to state a decisive position.
You’re certainly entitled to thinking he’s better than White, that’s your opinion. Better to have one than be afraid of offering one altogether.
Heck maybe he’ll pass White. How the heck do I know.
Maybe he had more potential. He certainly doesn’t have better historical production or at least not in the last couple years. Tackles for loss is pretty significant too, those generally show intensity and ability to finish. Both are good, but White is clearly superior there also.

You're right; you didn't say that. I misinterpreted.

The point I was making is that many, myself included, felt that Bush was better on the field to begin with but his listed size was consistently smaller that White. The combine proved that to be untrue and thus changed the calculation. I was expecting Bush to be at least 15 lbs lighter than White based on what was generally listed for these guys, not 3.

Time will tell.

 

[OldSchool101]

Brian Burns and Marcus Davenport aren't remotely comparable as players. They have way different games. I've been watching Burns since he was in HS. He's incredibly bendy, and a speed rusher.

Davenport wasn't that bendy, played with power, and excels in the run game. Very, very different players.

Everything I offer contributes to the physical and ratings’ dynamics of the players coming out of school. The similarities I mentioned were physical measurables. See their draft ratings and combine results they are very similar.
I spoke directly to weight never style.
However, as long as you took the time to try to disprove a fictional opposite position, It incentivized me to research your position for a minute or two for credibility, partly because I don’t remember anyone saying Davenport couldn’t BEND or SPEED RUSH.
I didn’t have to go far (literally the first article on Davenport). Both Draft Blaster and Daniel Jeremiah speak to directly to Marcus Davenports excellent bendability. ZERO of the SEVEN separate analysis’ of Davenport supports your claim of him being “NOT BENDY”, yet TWO speak directly to that being one of his positive features.

https://www.nj.com/jets/2018/02/could_jets_target_marcus_davenport_in_nfl_draft_sc.html
1. Are we talking about the same guy?
2. Are you suggesting Burns is a better fit for a 3-4 than Marcus Davenport was coming out of college?
3. Are you claiming Burns should go ahead of where Davenport got picked and if you’re so high on him.. how much better? Top 10? Top6? Where does he deserve to be in that grouping in your estimation?
4. Of those 2 guys, which is likely to be a better 3 down OLB in a 3-4?

 

[AmishMafia]

High
S Deonte Thompson - high 1st?!?! Maybe late 2nd

WR Metcalf only fast. His production should have been much greater in college. 2nd round player with 1st round physical skills. Well, only speed and height.

Low
RB Sanders - as Barkleys backup he didnt get the ball much. Becoming the starter, he got better every week. He is very athletic and a good receiver. I think he will get much better with more experience and could be a game changer.

WR McLauren - I think he will be better than Parris. Not as many highlights, but he will have more catches and yards than his teammate. Excellent at everything, routes, hands, quickness, etc. Fun guy to watch.


Other
OLB Burns. Before the combine, i would say early 2nd round. I still think he belongs there, but putting on weight and still being fast, he may go as high as 15ish in the 1st. One-dimensional guys are not as highly regarded by GMs as fans. This may not apply to Burns as he can set an edge better than say Laundry last year. Doubtful the Pack drafts him, maybe at 30. There is certainly potential there, but I fear he has more bust potential than most.

 

[GleefulGary]

Everything I offer contributes to the physical and ratings’ dynamics of the players coming out of school. The similarities I mentioned were physical measurables. See their draft ratings and combine results they are very similar.
I spoke directly to weight never style.
However, as long as you took the time to try to disprove a fictional opposite position, It incentivized me to research your position for a minute or two for credibility, partly because I don’t remember anyone saying Davenport couldn’t BEND or SPEED RUSH.
I didn’t have to go far (literally the first article on Davenport). Both Draft Blaster and Daniel Jeremiah speak to directly to Marcus Davenports excellent bendability. ZERO of the SEVEN separate analysis’ of Davenport supports your claim of him being “NOT BENDY”, yet TWO speak directly to that being one of his positive features.

https://www.nj.com/jets/2018/02/could_jets_target_marcus_davenport_in_nfl_draft_sc.html
1. Are we talking about the same guy?
2. Are you suggesting Burns is a better fit for a 3-4 than Marcus Davenport was coming out of college?
3. Are you claiming Burns should go ahead of where Davenport got picked and if you’re so high on him.. how much better? Top 10? Top6? Where does he deserve to be in that grouping in your estimation?
4. Of those 2 guys, which is likely to be a better 3 down OLB in a 3-4?

I didn't say Davenport couldn't bend, just that he's not very bendy. He showed it occasionally as a prospect, but seemed to primarily play with power. Very high effort player with obvious athletic abilities, but he cannot bend like Burns can. Burns is a pure pass rusher.

I think Davenport was/is the better prospect/player, simply because you can easily play him on all three downs. I would not be surprised if Burns gets more sacks than him though.

I actually do think Burns fits a 3-4 better because he is capable of playing in coverage and is a better pass rusher, but he's gotta show he can defend the run otherwise he's just a situational guy.

Burns has a load of potential as a pass rusher, and those guys go high. I think he's a top 20 prospect tbh.

 

[GleefulGary]

Fwiw, Lance Zierline mentioned his stiff hips and that he is a straight line athlete. That's essentially saying he's not bendy.

When it comes to OL/DL, LZ is one of the best.

It's also what I saw when I watched his tape. But I'm very much an amateur.

 

[OldSchool101]

OLB Burns. Before the combine, i would say early 2nd round. I still think he belongs there, but putting on weight and still being fast, he may go as high as 15ish in the 1st.

I think that’s pretty much where I see him also.

I didn't say Davenport couldn't bend, just that he's not very bendy. He showed it occasionally as a prospect, but seemed to primarily play with power. Very high effort player with obvious athletic abilities, but he cannot bend like Burns can. Burns is a pure pass rusher.

I think Davenport was/is the better prospect/player, simply because you can easily play him on all three downs. I would not be surprised if Burns gets more sacks than him though.

I actually do think Burns fits a 3-4 better because he is capable of playing in coverage and is a better pass rusher, but he's gotta show he can defend the run otherwise he's just a situational guy.

Burns has a load of potential as a pass rusher, and those guys go high. I think he's a top 20 prospect tbh.

You’re right. He’ll probably outdo my best guess because of the value at that position. Davenport was also a good example of someone who was all over the board from round 2 to early round 1. He got snatched up early too.
Based on the comparisons at similar positions and where Davenport went, I see the more recent hype bringing Burns into the teens and he’ll likely be picked in the #18+- range.
I still feel like he’s a #25 (risk) guy with pretty good value there at #30 tho. I’m discouraged at #12 or above, Just my Opinion

 

[OldSchool101]

Fwiw, Lance Zierline mentioned his stiff hips and that he is a straight line athlete. That's essentially saying he's not bendy.

When it comes to OL/DL, LZ is one of the best.

It's also what I saw when I watched his tape. But I'm very much an amateur.

Keep in mind Burns was playing at 225-230lb. range in college. He pretty much has to use his speed to get around guys, so bendability wasn’t an option it’s his trademark. The smartest thing he ever did was gain that 20lb because it answered some unknowns as to him being undersized and if he would lose some athleticism going up pounds. He essentially went over that hurdle with flying colors.
Had he not run those agility times? he would’ve been in trouble because his skirting the Tackle with raw speed is his primary asset.
He stock instantly rose 10-15 players after the combine alone.
Anyway. What I’m trying to say is I’m a fan of Burns just not pick #12. Id be fine if someone else picks him top 10 honestly because that means we’re 1 spot closer to a true blue chip at the position.
I’m not huge on Hock that early but I’d 100% rather have him at #12 anyday

 

[elcid]

High:
Cody Ford, OL - love his versatility
Jerry Tillery, DL - when it is all said and done I think he may have the most successful NFL career of all the IDL.
Andy Isabella, WR (yes even higher) - Edelman clone
Sheldrick Redwine, DB - poor man's CGJ or Savage.
Jimmy Moreland, CB - would be a great pick up at slot CB in the late rounds.
Trey Pipkins, OT - being undervalued because he played vs weaker competition.
LJ Scott, RB - dual threat power back. Probably available in the 5th, possibly 6th.

Low:
Andre Dillard, OT - He seems like a great day 2 prospect to me, but I wouldn't consider him earlier than 15-20ish.
DK Metcalf, WR - Reminds me too much of Kevin White
Noah Fant, TE - I prefer Smith
Jachai Polite, EDGE- not necessarily more down than the current mood around him, just been down on him from the beginning
Josh Jacobs, RB - I understand the comparison to Kamara, but I am not convinced as of yet.
Michael Deiter, OL - Beau > Michael