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Green Bay Packers’s GM Ted Thompson’s Draft Methodology
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<blockquote data-quote="jaybadger82" data-source="post: 442071" data-attributes="member: 6211"><p>I don't understand what "myth" Arrigo is dispelling. Does anyone really think TT drafts the best player available in a vacuum?</p><p> </p><p>...In fact, I don't understand how one accurately compares players at different positions without accounting for team need, scarcity of talent at each position and coaching philosophy (i.e. game plan). Unless the disparity in talent between players at different positions is obvious (think WR Calvin Johnson v. someone like S Reggie Nelson), I don't know how anyone can claim to be able to assign some objective value to players that permits us to compare them regardless of position. [The college season doesn't provide a large enough sample set to generate reliable advanced statistics. And even with an expanded sample, you have schedule disparities that are nearly impossible to control for.] Finally, looking at these things in hindsight, with knowledge of how each draft prospect turned out casts serious doubt on the science behind any such analysis. Hindsight is 20/20 and front offices must draft prospectively without perfect information.</p><p> </p><p>Despite my criticism of his analysis here, I enjoy many of Arrigo's contributions and I don't fault him for linking to his blog. I come here to be entertained and exchange news/thoughts with fellow Packer backers; Arrigo is volunteering content. If you don't like it, ignore it.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="jaybadger82, post: 442071, member: 6211"] I don't understand what "myth" Arrigo is dispelling. Does anyone really think TT drafts the best player available in a vacuum? ...In fact, I don't understand how one accurately compares players at different positions without accounting for team need, scarcity of talent at each position and coaching philosophy (i.e. game plan). Unless the disparity in talent between players at different positions is obvious (think WR Calvin Johnson v. someone like S Reggie Nelson), I don't know how anyone can claim to be able to assign some objective value to players that permits us to compare them regardless of position. [The college season doesn't provide a large enough sample set to generate reliable advanced statistics. And even with an expanded sample, you have schedule disparities that are nearly impossible to control for.] Finally, looking at these things in hindsight, with knowledge of how each draft prospect turned out casts serious doubt on the science behind any such analysis. Hindsight is 20/20 and front offices must draft prospectively without perfect information. Despite my criticism of his analysis here, I enjoy many of Arrigo's contributions and I don't fault him for linking to his blog. I come here to be entertained and exchange news/thoughts with fellow Packer backers; Arrigo is volunteering content. If you don't like it, ignore it. [/QUOTE]
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Green Bay Packers’s GM Ted Thompson’s Draft Methodology
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