Good time for a Lacy contract extension?

[adambr2]

With Lacy entering a contract year and MM confident he will be in shape in 2016, you'd have to think he's someone we'd certainly want to keep if he rebounds with a similar year to his first two.

With that in mind, it might be a good idea to approach Lacy about an extension now after an off year and avoid the conversation next year in free agency when his price might go way up and we already have our two guards to worry about. The benefit for Lacy to doing this of course is being able to score some long-term security and set his family up for life rather than risk an injury at a very high risk position, or risk seeing his value plummet further after a down year.

While Lacy would no doubt be looking to get paid based on his first two years in the league, I'm sure we'd be looking for a discount based on his last season. A good compromise, I think, would be an offer based on the 4 year/$16M deal signed by Ingram last year. This would lock Lacy up through age 30; basically the rest of his effective career. For a player like Lacy, I'd also include around $1M in incentives every season for hitting certain yardage marks and Pro Bowl appearances.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

With Lacy entering a contract year and MM confident he will be in shape in 2016, you'd have to think he's someone we'd certainly want to keep if he rebounds with a similar year to his first two.

With that in mind, it might be a good idea to approach Lacy about an extension now after an off year and avoid the conversation next year in free agency when his price might go way up and we already have our two guards to worry about. The benefit for Lacy to doing this of course is being able to score some long-term security and set his family up for life rather than risk an injury at a very high risk position, or risk seeing his value plummet further after a down year.

While Lacy would no doubt be looking to get paid based on his first two years in the league, I'm sure we'd be looking for a discount based on his last season. A good compromise, I think, would be an offer based on the 4 year/$16M deal signed by Ingram last year. This would lock Lacy up through age 30; basically the rest of his effective career. For a player like Lacy, I'd also include around $1M in incentives every season for hitting certain yardage marks and Pro Bowl appearances.

Lacy has to prove he is determined to get back in shape before I want the Packers to even think about offering him a long-term contract. But even if he bounces back from an off year during a contract season I´m extremely reluctant to sign him to a lucrative contract as I´m not convinced he would stay motivated for the entire duration of it.

Don´t get me wrong, I would like to keep Lacy after the 2016 season but hope Thompson signs him to a contract heavy on performance-based incentives.

 

[adambr2]

Lacy has to prove he is determined to get back in shape before I want the Packers to even think about offering him a long-term contract. But even if he bounces back from an off year during a contract season I´m extremely reluctant to sign him to a lucrative contract as I´m not convinced he would stay motivated for the entire duration of it.

Don´t get me wrong, I would like to keep Lacy after the 2016 season but hope Thompson signs him to a contract heavy on performance-based incentives.

My issue with waiting is that if he performs like he did in '13 or '14, you're likely going to see the price double. If he's worth an Ingram type extension now at 4M, you could definitely argue he'll be worth a Murray type extension of closer to 8M a year if he rebounds, which I think is quite likely. Especially with several high end players like Sitton and Lang also headed for free agency, I'm not interested in committing 8M a year to the RB position. If he looks like his first 2 seasons, it'll be too late to offer him a lowball incentive laden deal. He'd be a top 5 RB again entering free agency and would no doubt be looking for something high on guarantees from the top bidder.

If you still don't trust him then and let him walk, I can understand that, but then it's back to the drawing board at RB as we don't have any other suitable in house options to start currently whether or not Starks returns.

That's why I think that an Ingram type offer of 4M a season + incentives that is somewhat low on the guarantees (6-7M) is a good balance between buying low and managing the risk involved, to the extent where we could cut him with minimal dead money halfway through the deal if he wasn't living up to it.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

My issue with waiting is that if he performs like he did in '13 or '14, you're likely going to see the price double. If he's worth an Ingram type extension now at 4M, you could definitely argue he'll be worth a Murray type extension of closer to 8M a year if he rebounds, which I think is quite likely. Especially with several high end players like Sitton and Lang also headed for free agency, I'm not interested in committing 8M a year to the RB position. If he looks like his first 2 seasons, it'll be too late to offer him a lowball incentive laden deal. He'd be a top 5 RB again entering free agency and would no doubt be looking for something high on guarantees from the top bidder.

If you still don't trust him then and let him walk, I can understand that, but then it's back to the drawing board at RB as we don't have any other suitable in house options to start currently whether or not Starks returns.

That's why I think that an Ingram type offer of 4M a season + incentives that is somewhat low on the guarantees (6-7M) is a good balance between buying low and managing the risk involved, to the extent where we could cut him with minimal dead money halfway through the deal if he wasn't living up to it.

There´s absolutely no way I would be fine with paying Lacy $8 million a season even if he rebounds in 2016. I don´t trust him to stay motivated and in shape once he gets a deal like that. I´m well aware that most likely means having to find another starter at running back but I prefer that option over throwing huge money at Eddie.

 

[adambr2]

There´s absolutely no way I would be fine with paying Lacy $8 million a season even if he rebounds in 2016. I don´t trust him to stay motivated and in shape once he gets a deal like that. I´m well aware that most likely means having to find another starter at running back but I prefer that option over throwing huge money at Eddie.

To me though that's another argument for trying to get him at a discount now as I would much prefer not to use an early round pick on a RB this year or next, we have more pressing needs.

I'm not sure what the free agency class looks like for RBs next offseason. As I've noted in another thread I'd be completely on board with Forte but that's a very short term solution.

I realize that Lacy requires extra motivation, I'm not advocating giving him a ton of money up front. A small signing bonus and a backloaded deal with incentives should give him plenty to play for.

 

[adambr2]

For the sake of comparison, say Ingram were to bust next season and be cut by the Saints after only the 2nd year of his 4 year deal, his dead cap hit would be only 1.8M.

That's a pretty minimal cost if they need to get out of the deal halfway through. (they won't, Ingram is a great value). I'm thinking something along those same lines where we can score the benefits of buying low while still minimizing the risk on the other end if it ends up being a bad deal.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

To me though that's another argument for trying to get him at a discount now as I would much prefer not to use an early round pick on a RB this year or next, we have more pressing needs.

I'm not sure what the free agency class looks like for RBs next offseason. As I've noted in another thread I'd be completely on board with Forte but that's a very short term solution.

I realize that Lacy requires extra motivation, I'm not advocating giving him a ton of money up front. A small signing bonus and a backloaded deal with incentives should give him plenty to play for.

There´s no reason to spend an early round draft pick on the running back position this season. But as long as other positions in need of either upgrading them or re-signing some of the team´s own free agents are addressed I wouldn´t mind Thompson doing it during the 2017 draft.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Lacy is a Catch-22 right now. If you extend his contract without incentive clauses, he may very well take the money and...eat. But as adambr2 points out, if his off season conditioning program is successful and he tears it up in 2016, you are trying to resign someone at big money at this time next year. This is a bit like resigning a guy who is coming off an injury or drug issue and wondering if he will still perform and possibly more susceptible to re-injury/suspension. I think we have all seen the upside of Lacy and if the Packers can structure a contract that only pays him if this upside is achieved and maintained, they would be better off to do it sooner then later, while they have the leverage of the unknown. Because if he does have that upside in 2016, the Packers won't be the only team interested in Lacy and there will be another team out there probably willing to pay him based mainly on his 2016 performance. Structuring a heavy (no pun intended) laden incentive contract now, without a lot of guaranteed money might just be the final incentive Lacy needs to return to form (pun intended).

 

[Sunshinepacker]

My issue with waiting is that if he performs like he did in '13 or '14, you're likely going to see the price double. If he's worth an Ingram type extension now at 4M, you could definitely argue he'll be worth a Murray type extension of closer to 8M a year if he rebounds, which I think is quite likely. Especially with several high end players like Sitton and Lang also headed for free agency, I'm not interested in committing 8M a year to the RB position. If he looks like his first 2 seasons, it'll be too late to offer him a lowball incentive laden deal. He'd be a top 5 RB again entering free agency and would no doubt be looking for something high on guarantees from the top bidder.

If you still don't trust him then and let him walk, I can understand that, but then it's back to the drawing board at RB as we don't have any other suitable in house options to start currently whether or not Starks returns.

That's why I think that an Ingram type offer of 4M a season + incentives that is somewhat low on the guarantees (6-7M) is a good balance between buying low and managing the risk involved, to the extent where we could cut him with minimal dead money halfway through the deal if he wasn't living up to it.

Not sure how expensive Lacy is going to be even if he has another 1,300+ yard season. He's a guy that's known to not "love" football (I hate that phrasing btw, I'm sorry, but any player that has stuck around for most of their lives in a sport that hurts that much has to be dedicated) as much as some others, he's a guy with weight problems and, maybe more importantly, many teams are going to question how good he would be on a team without a great QB and defenses that are more focused on stopping the pass. Also, running backs don't really get paid that much in today's NFL.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Also, running backs don't really get paid that much in today's NFL.

Mostly agree with your post but while it´s true they don´t get paid as much as players at some other positions the top running backs get paid in excess of $5 million a season. A number I wouldn´t feel comfortable with handing out to Lacy.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Fast forward to 2017, Lacy has come off a 1200+ yard year and was a key ingredient in the Packer offense. Now what? It really puts the Packers in a situation of having to compete with many other teams for his service, driving his contract price up. Right now, the only one the Packers are competing with is Lacy's agent. If the two sides can come to an equitable agreement that pays Lacy more money in 2016 and beyond if he is productive and very little money if he isn't, its a win win. I doubt Eddie is sitting/running at home right now 100% confidence that at the end of 2016 he will be in line for a huge contract. Strike while there is doubt on both sides and take advantage of the unknown.

 

[GreenBaySlacker]

I like Starks. He was 24 I think, coming into the league. Never got a lot of carries, compared to a work horse. Partly because he would break down when he carried the load. He seems to be playing his best football right now. Although he has been streaky in his career...

Anyways. my point is, Starks seems like one of those guys who can play into his 30's. Fred Jackson in Buffalo...

Lacy is the beast. 187 carries, 758 yds (4.1) 3TDs rushing. another 20 catches for 188 ,(9.4) and 2 TDs. Behind a broken Oline that seemed to have its hands full... to say the least. I mean Rodgers was off just as much... Maybe there is more to this equasion, than Lacy being a fat lazy SCAPEGOAT! ?

The Oline needs..... Something....... to be better...
Is signing Sitton and Lang to big contracts a good idea? Im thinking we should sign a stud LT, worthy of covering Rodgers blind side. Bahk can fight it out if he wants to start. Otherwise he does what every other 24 year old has to do. Be a good back up, and take advantage of the opportunities you get... At some point in the year, one of the OTs will go down. Then we get Bahk back... IMO. I think we should give most of Sitton and Langs money to Joe Thomas. Then fill in the guards with young bull dozers..... Do something!!!

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Fast forward to 2017, Lacy has come off a 1200+ yard year and was a key ingredient in the Packer offense. Now what? It really puts the Packers in a situation of having to compete with many other teams for his service, driving his contract price up. Right now, the only one the Packers are competing with is Lacy's agent. If the two sides can come to an equitable agreement that pays Lacy more money in 2016 and beyond if he is productive and very little money if he isn't, its a win win. I doubt Eddie is sitting/running at home right now 100% confidence that at the end of 2016 he will be in line for a huge contract. Strike while there is doubt on both sides and take advantage of the unknown.

There´s absolutely no doubt in my mind that re-signing Lacy this offseason would come cheaper than next year if he´s capable of having another season in 2016 like he had in ´13 and ´14. I don´t expect him to sign any long-term contract not including any significant guaranteed money though. Just like with Raji in previous seasons agreeing to such a deal would make me extremely nervous.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I like Starks. He was 24 I think, coming into the league. Never got a lot of carries, compared to a work horse. Partly because he would break down when he carried the load. He seems to be playing his best football right now. Although he has been streaky in his career...

Anyways. my point is, Starks seems like one of those guys who can play into his 30's. Fred Jackson in Buffalo...

Lacy is the beast. 187 carries, 758 yds (4.1) 3TDs rushing. another 20 catches for 188 ,(9.4) and 2 TDs. Behind a broken Oline that seemed to have its hands full... to say the least. I mean Rodgers was off just as much... Maybe there is more to this equasion, than Lacy being a fat lazy SCAPEGOAT! ?

The Oline needs..... Something....... to be better...
Is signing Sitton and Lang to big contracts a good idea? Im thinking we should sign a stud LT, worthy of covering Rodgers blind side. Bahk can fight it out if he wants to start. Otherwise he does what every other 24 year old has to do. Be a good back up, and take advantage of the opportunities you get... At some point in the year, one of the OTs will go down. Then we get Bahk back... IMO. I think we should give most of Sitton and Langs money to Joe Thomas. Then fill in the guards with young bull dozers..... Do something!!!

I wouldn´t mind upgrading the back-up RB position but if there´s no good deal available be fine with bringing back Starks as well. He has to improve holding on to the football though.

There´s no denying that the entire offense struggled but Lacy deserves some blame as well. Hopefully he has learned his lesson and works his butt off this offseason to get back in shape.

I don´t expect Thompson to re-sign both Sitton and Lang after next season. Bakhtiari is fine protecting Rodgers´ blind side but has to improve in run blocking. I would love to get Joe Thomas to play in green and gold but with him being under contract with the Browns until 2018 and their new front office announcing he´s not on the trading block that won´t happen any time soon.

 

[GreenBaySlacker]

crap.... no joe thomas then. lol

 

[TJV]

In answer to the question posed by the OP, my answer is no, now isn't a good time. Perhaps an in-season extension would provide the Packers with some security that Lacy is dedicated, Lacy protection against injury, and still a bit of a discount.

 

[GreenBaySlacker]

I wonder if some real competition would help raise his level of play? There are some options in FA, as well as the draft...

 

[AmishMafia]

Lacy does not appear to be the type of player who is self-motivated. He let himself get out of.shape for last season, no reason to think he is now any different. He is, by some reports, working hard now. Tough to say if he rededicated himself to success or he is looking at his financial balance sheet knowing he has a big potential payday coming up.

Let him play for a big contract and then let someone else overpay him as a FA. I just dont trust him.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I wonder if some real competition would help raise his level of play? There are some options in FA, as well as the draft...

There´s for sure no reason to spend starter money on a running back in free agency or invest an early draft pick on the position this year. The Packers will need to either bring Starks back or add a back-up though.

 

[GreenBaySlacker]

whats wrong with bringing in a high rookie pick. To see if he is NFL ready , before Starks is gone. And we theoretically let Lacy go. Also to make damn sure we have good RBs for next season.

What do you suspect Forte would cost?

 

[Deleted member 6794]

whats wrong with bringing in a high rookie pick. To see if he is NFL ready , before Starks is gone. And we theoretically let Lacy go. Also to make damn sure we have good RBs for next season.

What do you suspect Forte would cost?

The Packers first and foremost have to address inside linebacker, tight end and offensive line depth this offseason. If Thompson decides to do that in free agency I would be fine with drafting the best player available whenever the Packers are on the clock, even using an early pick on a RB. As long as those holes aren´t adequately filled RB isn´t a position of dire need of an upgrade though.

 

[GreenBaySlacker]

The Packers first and foremost have to address inside linebacker, tight end and offensive line depth this offseason. If Thompson decides to do that in free agency I would be fine with drafting the best player available whenever the Packers are on the clock, even using an early pick on a RB. As long as those holes aren´t adequately filled RB isn´t a position of dire need of an upgrade though.

you are always founded on solid logic Wimm. I give you that. But what Im trying to speculate, is strategic direction. Whats coming??? Our expensive guards are part of an often injured, under acheiving Oline. Lacy MIGHT have long term motivation problems. Our solid #2 is a FA, and will be 30 when season starts. and our #3 RB is......??? a WR??? If Monty and Cobb are actually going to be played at the position??? Then great. But on another side, Starks leaves in FA, Lacy fouls out or get injured. And we are straight up chiz creek.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

you are always founded on solid logic Wimm. I give you that. But what Im trying to speculate, is strategic direction. Whats coming??? Our expensive guards are part of an often injured, under acheiving Oline. Lacy MIGHT have long term motivation problems. Our solid #2 is a FA, and will be 30 when season starts. and our #3 RB is......??? a WR??? If Monty and Cobb are actually going to be played at the position??? Then great. But on another side, Starks leaves in FA, Lacy fouls out or get injured. And we are straight up chiz creek.

As I´ve posted above the Packers need to either re-sign Starks or add another back-up RB either via free agency or the draft. No reason to spend a ton of money or a high pick on it though.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Now that I look at stats.......funny thing about Eddie is that his average per attempt this year was 4.1 yards, the same as he had in 2013 when he went to the Pro Bowl as a rookie. His total yards were down in 2015 , but so were his attempts (by almost 100). I'm not saying these are good numbers and maybe his lack of carries was due to his lack of conditioning, but I don't think we witnessed a complete "Jekyll and Hyde" Lacy from 2013 to 2015. So if people are expecting Lacy to have a complete makeover in the off season and vastly improve in 2016, will he? Probably not, unless the Eddie Lacy we saw in 2013 was also a bit over weight, out of shape and needing motivation. But he was also a rookie in 2013, so that has to be taken into consideration. What I hope to see out of Lacy is a back who can hit the holes faster and take advantage of his size/power once he gets beyond the LOS. A back who is also capable of picking up those tough 1-2 yards on 3rd down.

So despite my previous stance, maybe the prudent thing to do is to wait and see who Eddie Lacy is in 2016 before extending his contract.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Now that I look at stats.......funny thing about Eddie is that his average per attempt this year was 4.1 yards, the same as he had in 2013 when he went to the Pro Bowl as a rookie. His total yards were down in 2015 , but so were his attempts (by almost 100). I'm not saying these are good numbers and maybe his lack of carries was due to his lack of conditioning, but I don't think we witnessed a complete "Jekyll and Hyde" Lacy from 2013 to 2015.

Lacy has never been a running back averaging huge yards per carry but was able to wear a defense down and get the tough yards. Last season he was the one getting fatigued pretty fast though and thus making it easier for the defense to stop the Packers offense.