Go all in, or quick "rebuild"

[GreenBaySlacker]

What I seen was Ted Thompson spending the cap, for a final push for a Superbowl. He loved his 20-30 million cap space cush... he won a Superbowl when he was doing it.......

Then the pressure comes to use the cap. Use free agency. Start using all avenues and resources to win now! So he spent his cush.
I have to admit. At the beginning of last year, with #12 focused. Bennett/kendricks.... Monty and his 6+ ypc the previous year. All the wrs still in place... even the defense had a deep dline(until Ted cut them all). House, king, Jones...Perry coming off big year, Clark breaking out. I was very confident. Even Hundley. I honestly thought we would see a good enough showing that we would have trades to talk about...nope.

I never would have guessed 7-9... Thompson's head must've been spinning.

Enter Gutensk......our new GM . Our new gms job is to keep his job. So does he try to keep the current ship afloat? Keep/restructure/trade/ cut/pick up/and renegotiate our way to another all-in season. Keep Mathews and the two big wrs.(eventually collecting big comp picks for them). Keep everyone we can, and spend every cap dollar we got. Knowing next season Jordy, Cobb, Mathews come off the books anyways. And we can give #12 his $30m/yr......

Or

Cut now. Between Mathews(11.4), Cobb(9.5), bulaga (4.7 this yr, 6.7 next) coming off a bad knee injury late in the 2017 season. If Nelson were to sign a team friendly extension guaranteeing him finishing his career here. GB could save a few mil more. Go with rookie fg kicker, and we save a few more. We could clear 30 mil and keep Nelson another year. Or cut all 5 of the stagnant big dollar veterans, saving 40mil, bringing our spendable cap space to $50 million!!!$57mil total before rookies, ir replacements, etc.

Doing this, wr becomes a very high priority in the draft. We can't drop one 12 mil$ wr , just to pay some outsider the same... I'm still hopeful Jordy would want to play one last year for a team friendly deal. One of many move possible with $57mil cap space.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

The Packers shouldn't go all-in this offseason but address the team's most pressing needs with some veteran. With Rodgers still in his prime they're only a few smart moves in free agency and drafting some rookies having an immediate impact away from being a legit Super Bowl contender.

 

[mradtke66]

The more I think about this, 2018 is a semi-rebuild, not unlike 2009. Maybe even a lot like 2009.

You've got the highest pick you've had in a while and enough capital to move around should the draft fall favorably. Assuming there is a reason to do so, picking at 14 and trading our 2, 3, and potential 3-comp to sneak into the bottom of the 1st might have some value.

Regardless, I'd guess we don't spend a ton of money in FA in 2018. Maybe a couple typical TT-type signings. Older players, with value, who have been cut.

Then we draft well (here's hoping.) 2018 plays out, with a healthy Rodgers, let's pencil in another playoff season.

Okay, 2019 end of season. Nelson, Cobb, and Matthews are off the books. Instant cap-space. Target your one or two big signings, if you want someone.

Your 2018 rookies have shown you something and you can project how they might do in 2019. Plan out your 2019 draft.

Now you have 2 draft attempts to replace the Three Overpaid Guys.

 

[Firethorn1001]

Cut Crosby to save some spare change under the couch cushions and sign a rookie? No thanks.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Cut Crosby to save some spare change under the couch cushions and sign a rookie? No thanks.

Rookies (79.7%) combined to have a higher field goal percentage last season than Crosby (78.9%).

 

[906Fan]

For the stat to be useful I think you need to factor in the distance also. I would speculate that Crosby is asked to kick more difficult kicks than the rookies.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

For the stat to be useful I think you need to factor in the distance also. I would speculate that Crosby is asked to kick more difficult kicks than the rookies.

Well, rookie kickers combined to make 21 of 27 field goals from 50+ yards in 2017 while Crosby hit only one of three attempts from that distance.

 

[Half Empty]

Do not challenge WIMM with numbers.

 

[gemoran4]

Rookies (79.7%) combined to have a higher field goal percentage last season than Crosby (78.9%).

Out of curiosity, is the true if we go back a couple of seasons? I'm too lazy to do the research but I'm wondering if that's just the case of having a really good rookie class for kickers or if maybe Crosby is being overvalued

 

[McKnowledge]

Go All In!!! Aaron Rodgers is the Quarterback!!! I would rather go all in every year with Rodgers at QB and risk tanking for a few seasons after Rodgers leave. However, if the draft and free agency is done right, and another franchise QB is acquired, GB can stagger the draft/free agency agenda during Rodger's twilight while maintaining a championship roster, and remain at the very least competitive after he retires. Hopefully, one of these young rookie RBs will turn into an ace and make Aaron Rodgers efficiently lethal, if/when a decline happens.

 

[XPack]

Do we go all in or all out?

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Out of curiosity, is the true if we go back a couple of seasons? I'm too lazy to do the research but I'm wondering if that's just the case of having a really good rookie class for kickers or if maybe Crosby is being overvalued

There was an in-depth discussion on this forum about Crosby's value after the Packers re-signed him to a deal averaging $4+ million a season. The bottom line is that the team is overpaying for an average kicker and could have saved several millions by going with a rookie while most likely not suffering any negative consequences on the field.

Go All In!!! Aaron Rodgers is the Quarterback!!! I would rather go all in every year with Rodgers at QB and risk tanking for a few seasons after Rodgers leave.

Unfortunately it's impossible to go all-in every season with the salary cap in place.

 

[GreenBaySlacker]

The more I think about this, 2018 is a semi-rebuild, not unlike 2009. Maybe even a lot like 2009.

You've got the highest pick you've had in a while and enough capital to move around should the draft fall favorably. Assuming there is a reason to do so, picking at 14 and trading our 2, 3, and potential 3-comp to sneak into the bottom of the 1st might have some value.

Regardless, I'd guess we don't spend a ton of money in FA in 2018. Maybe a couple typical TT-type signings. Older players, with value, who have been cut.

Then we draft well (here's hoping.) 2018 plays out, with a healthy Rodgers, let's pencil in another playoff season.

Okay, 2019 end of season. Nelson, Cobb, and Matthews are off the books. Instant cap-space. Target your one or two big signings, if you want someone.

Your 2018 rookies have shown you something and you can project how they might do in 2019. Plan out your 2019 draft.

Now you have 2 draft attempts to replace the Three Overpaid Guys.

Even with the idea of releasing big three , and scavenging the rest of the roster. Saving for or signing #12... I still like our chances...

But I'm with you . It was premature the last time we won the Superbowl. The fresh mini-rebuild went well. The rookies performed well. The veterans performed well. Little luck just to get into the playoffs. Little more to get to the end of the Superbowl with the lead and woodson out. It was one of the most exciting runs ever imo.

This year is a mix it up year. New DC, oc, GM....but DC is capers spin-off. OC is ex-OC. GM was in house. Same coach/qb for last decade... I like our chances no matter what we do with the cap casualties, or not.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Even with the idea of releasing big three , and scavenging the rest of the roster. Saving for or signing #12... I still like our chances...

The Packers releasing Matthews, Nelson and Cobb would sognificantly decline their chances of winning the Super Bowl next season.

 

[GreenBaySlacker]

The Packers releasing Matthews, Nelson and Cobb would sognificantly decline their chances of winning the Super Bowl next season.

True... the three high comp picks weigh just as heavy imo. Not only would we lose three stars. We would lose three rookies, who bring unknown talent for guaranteed low price...

I would bet the 34mil, free and clear cap space would help too though...

The more I think about it, a blue chip pass rusher at #14 , combined with Perry. would give us dual threats olbs for the next 4 years... nice

 

[OldSchool101]

Out of curiosity, is the true if we go back a couple of seasons? I'm too lazy to do the research but I'm wondering if that's just the case of having a really good rookie class for kickers or if maybe Crosby is being overvalued

Keep in mind that Crosby had several Long Snapper changes. I remember at least 2 FG missed that I felt we’re not completely his fault due to a poor snap or spot and those were just ones I personally noticed. Crosby was noticeably agitated which tells me there were issues behind just a couple bad snaps. We don’t know how many more were affected by those changes but it seemed to me the LS Department was more erratic than in a typical year. Just a thought.

 

[GreenBaySlacker]

Keep in mind that Crosby had several Long Snapper changes. I remember at least 2 FG missed that I felt we’re not completely his fault due to a poor snap or spot and those were just ones I personally noticed. Crosby was noticeably agitated which tells me there were issues behind just a couple bad snaps. We don’t know how many more were affected by those changes but it seemed to me the LS Department was more erratic than in a typical year. Just a thought.

I'm comfortable with Crosby. But 5.2 mil for a kicker seems nuts when we are letting guys like Burnett seemingly walk in fa?
Ugh....

 

[HardRightEdge]

It should be a two year plan which means not throwing away $20 million in cap on #2 and #3 receivers who should not be around in 2019 anyway.

 

[OldSchool101]

There was an in-depth discussion on this forum about Crosby's value after the Packers re-signed him to a deal averaging $4+ million a season. The bottom line is that the team is overpaying for an average kicker and could have saved several millions by going with a rookie while most likely not suffering any negative consequences on the field.

Yeah I forgot how loaded his contract is. It wouldn't be wise to cut him this year with a 2.5M dead cap hit, but he'd better improve substantially because with his dead money set to drop in half next year he may be bye bye, particularly under a new administration looking hard at the books for ways to trim some fat

 

[Firethorn1001]

particularly under a new administration looking hard at the books for ways to trim some fat

?

What suggests they are looking at ways to trim fat?

 

[GreenBaySlacker]

?

What suggests they are looking at ways to trim fat?

Weird. I didn't say that...
But I will say most GM s are looking for ways to trim fat imo.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

True... the three high comp picks weigh just as heavy imo. Not only would we lose three stars. We would lose three rookies, who bring unknown talent for guaranteed low price...

I'm not convinced either Matthews, Nelson or Cobb would receive a huge contract in 2019 resulting in the Packers receiving high compensatory picks for any of them.

Keep in mind that Crosby had several Long Snapper changes. I remember at least 2 FG missed that I felt we’re not completely his fault due to a poor snap or spot and those were just ones I personally noticed. Crosby was noticeably agitated which tells me there were issues behind just a couple bad snaps. We don’t know how many more were affected by those changes but it seemed to me the LS Department was more erratic than in a typical year. Just a thought.

You bring up a valid point for Crosby struggling last season. In addition he had only 19 attempts in 2017 which presents a pretty small sample size.

Yeah I forgot how loaded his contract is. It wouldn't be wise to cut him this year with a 2.5M dead cap hit, but he'd better improve substantially because with his dead money set to drop in half next year he may be bye bye, particularly under a new administration looking hard at the books for ways to trim some fat

It was a mistake signing Crosby to that deal in the first place. The Packers would still save $2.75 million in cap space by cutting him this offseason.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I'm not convinced either Matthews, Nelson or Cobb would receive a huge contract in 2019 resulting in the Packers receiving high compensatory picks for any of them.

"Not convinced" is an understatement.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Rookies (79.7%) combined to have a higher field goal percentage last season than Crosby (78.9%).

Normally I like your stats But I think this one is slightly skewed with the stats of two rookies, Chiefs Harrison Butker who was 38 of 42 (90.5%) and Eagles Jake Elliott (26-31 83.9%). While I don't know how many rookie kickers were given tryouts or signed in 2017, but I imagine the process of finding one like Butker or Elliott isn't as easy as it appears by that Stat.

Sure, the Packers could save $1.5M by cutting Crosby, but I don't see the savings being worth the risk of what could happen.

 

[OldSchool101]

We’re paying Crosby at minimum near 50% of his 5.25M $ salary regardless if we do or don’t move on from him which is tough to swallow.

It wouldn’t shock me if we grabbed a late round K either as we’d trim 6,350,000 less the roughly 1M we’d pay a rookie over 2 seasons. That’s roughly a $5,350,00 savings during his remaining 2yr contract.

Thats $2,250,000 in net savings (after paying a rookie deal) in 2018 to spend elsewhere.

That’s a net $3,100,000 (after rookie contract)in 2019 to spend “ “

It would make a lot of sense to revisit his account in any event. I’m not sure we’re gonna get 5M+ of better production over a potential replacement candidate. If Im Gute, I’m watching very closely to see if there’s a solid K who is around late rounds, we’ve got plenty of late round capital to work with.

At the very least, for me, if he stays he’d better have a stellar 2018 season.