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Free Agency

Discussion in 'Packer Fan Forum' started by GWheels, Mar 11, 2013.

  1. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    Sorry...too far ahead to consider. How about B.J. Raji? :confused: Many months will pass for players to be extended or franchised. In a "what have you done for me lately" league, 2013 performance will impact 2014 availability.

    In any case, there are always quality players available. It's just a question of price.

    This season's free agency season panned out as I predicted...flat cap coupled with elite player salaries escalating and a cheap rookie salary scale creates a vast middle of decent bargain players. Good players in the 28-31 year range who were released because of cap considerations or were heading into a third contract really took it on the chin this year. This should continue until a year comes along with a sharp bump in the salary cap (2015?) One could jump from 8 wins to the playoffs with a carefully selected few of these bargain players.

    SF, BAL, SEA and NE don't seem shy about filling holes with these types of players in order to stay on top.
     
  2. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    People who are paid to win and have professional pride try to win until they are certain there is no advantage in doing so. But that's a complete guess.
     
  3. ThxJackVainisi

    ThxJackVainisi Lifelong Packers Fanatic

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    I always thought I didn’t/don’t know enough about the inner workings of the front office to know, but I do assume losing McKenzie and Dorsey has to hurt at least a little.

    Regarding McKenzie I don’t think we’ll know how good or bad he is as GM until the end of the 2015 season. He inherited the worst of three worlds: A roster in need of an overhaul, premium picks traded away by his predecessor (last year’s first rounder and this year’s second), and an inherited salary cap hell. As HardRightEdge noted, he starts next season will a clean slate – about $50M in cap space and only 2014 fifth round and 2015 seventh round picks missing. Those picks were the price for Flynn and what if all the Packers fans who thought Flynn was worth a first rounder were right? That’s a pretty cheap price to find out and if Flynn has any integrity he should feel like he has something to prove. Anyway, IMO we won’t see “the real” McKenzie as GM until next year and by the end of the 2015 season it should be clear whether or not the Raiders are headed in the right direction.

    The Raiders are obviously at the extreme of teams with dead money on their salary caps this season. While I usually wouldn’t use the most extreme example to make a point I do think the contrast between the Raiders and Packers is instructive. As the linked article says, the Raiders have about $45M of dead money this year and according to Silverstein’s April 3rd jsonline article their cap is $127.2M. Silverstein also notes that a total of 15 players account for the Packers’ 2013 dead money: $959,236. And the Packers’ cap number is higher – over $131M. That’s about 35% in dead money vs. about seven tenths of one percent. And almost all of the $959K dead money is from the “huge” UFA mistake Thompson made last year: The dead money from Saturday’s contract is $825K.

    Silverstein’s article lists the “more notorious” charges on the Packers cap in recent years. Since Thompson became GM, only the contracts of 7 players contracts have cost the Packers more than a $1M cap hit. The worst hit was from Cletidus Hunt who Thompson inherited and who reached an injury settlement. Another was Nick Collins who was anything but a mistake by Thompson. We go ‘round and ‘round about Thompson’s hesitation in using UFA. But the dead money hitting the Packers cap every season during his tenure as GM goes in the positive column of evaluating his job as GM.
    http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/green-bay-packers-count-little-dead-money-toward-cap-ed9dj89-201373111.html
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  4. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    We shouldn't overlook Schneider.

    As you say, we don't know much about front office internal dynamics, and Pete Carroll evidently has a heavy hand in draft decisions. Nonetheless, Schneider should get props for these last 3 drafts in Seattle.

    As far as Packer "dead cap" history, the record is admirable. However, one wonders if the tail is sometimes wagging the dog, e.g., Hawk. Perhaps Tramon Williams and Sherrod will change the equation depending on how these guys shape up in training camp / pre-season. If the status quo persists and we're still paying them, then the dog is certainly being wagged.
     
  5. 13 Times Champs

    13 Times Champs Cheesehead

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    Yes you and HRE are probably correct. What I posted is probably a bit extreme as was the example of using the Raiders cap situation as an example of what can go wrong. I just think McKenzie may have received a promotion to a higher position based on Thompson's record of success. That's probably the way I should have put it. He has a tough job ahead of him for sure.
     
  6. Bagadeez04

    Bagadeez04 Cheesehead

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    I think its pretty reasonable that we have steered away from free agency in the last couple of years with the big pay days coming due. What I can't figure out is how ted figured he could find $8mil/year (or whatever he was offering) to give Greg Jennings at a position of strength.

    If he can make room for that, logically he can make room for...say...Dashon Gholdson...for instance...at is a position of need. I guess I think it is a flawed philosophy to discount free agency completely, because they aren't "our" guys. I just can't wrap my head around the notion that we need to save up money for AR & CM3, yet the money is there for Jennings somehow. It doesn't make sense to me.
     
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  7. ThxJackVainisi

    ThxJackVainisi Lifelong Packers Fanatic

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    I think the money for Jennings would have come from waiving Finley, so it was either/or regarding Finley and Jennings, not both. I don't think they wanted to lose two targets for Rodgers. I believe Wilde and another beat writer confirmed that with a source within the organization (not that that proves it). The Brad Jones extension was more puzzling to me. There are a lot of bodies at ILB and now they're paying three of them starter's money. An either/or with Jones and Hawk would have made more sense to me but maybe Jones' extension says more about the likelihood of Bishop's recovery than I/we would like to believe?
     
  8. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    People like to have multiple reasons to justify an expensive decision:

    1) Bishop uncertainties, as you said.
    2) Hawk's dead cap drops to a reasonable level next year allowing his release.
    3) Jones can play inside or outside...a contingency for bad case scenarios especially with Walden gone.
     
  9. Bagadeez04

    Bagadeez04 Cheesehead

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    Finley gets that money for one more year and then he's likely gone. Jennings would have been for 4-5 years. Doesnt add up.
     
  10. ThxJackVainisi

    ThxJackVainisi Lifelong Packers Fanatic

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    If Finley is around for just one more year than his impact on the salary cap for 2014 on will be zero. Jennings will be 30 this season and he's missed games the last two years. If the Packers would have signed him and had to waive him over the next couple of seasons it would have had an effect on the cap. And with the WRs on the team, particularly Cobb, Jennings is more replaceable. But we've been 'round and 'round on this topic. My point was just it was likely going to be either Jennings or Finely.
     
  11. 13 Times Champs

    13 Times Champs Cheesehead

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  12. HyponGrey

    HyponGrey Caseus Locutus Est

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    Young and Jenkins are good signings IMO.
     
  13. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    Check out the $50 mil in dead cap money listed at the bottom of this link:

    http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/oakland-raiders/cap-hit/

    For some reason they've not moved Huff's $9.5 mil into that list (he's still shown above on the roster). Now that Palmer's gone their dead cap is up to $60 mil. That might be an NFL record.

    Honestly, I have no idea if McKenzie will be a good or poor GM. It will take several years to work through the mess he inherited. The proof will be in the putting.

    The ex-Coach what's-his-name recently admitted he was selfish bringing in Palmer to try to save his ***. So the guy was both weak for that move and stupid for admitting it. This is symptomatic of what went on there.

    Besides the roster mess, he also has to worry about keeping butts in seats. Their stadium revenue is the lowest in the NFL...it's an old ballpark without much premium seating. Last year was the first year since 1995 they didn't have a blackout game. They're now living in the shadow of the 49ers who are on the cusp. These guys just can't afford to go 2-14 in front of a half empty stadium...they'll go broke. In fact, all that dead cap may be in part a byproduct of needing to reduce roster cash costs as much as anything else. So McKenzie has to try to stay some kind of competitive while trying to rebuild...thus the FAs. This ain't GB where sellouts are guaranteed. In perpetuity.
     
  14. Poppa San

    Poppa San SB I trophy First of four Staff Member Moderator

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    It shows Palmer in the dead cap area under the line. There exists a way to split the cap hit for released players which may be why Huff is not in the dead money part. I think it is this years portion of the dead money and the rest is pushed back to next year.
     
  15. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    Yeah, I know Palmer is in the dead cap area in that link.

    The point I was making is this:

    Earlier reports said $50 mil dead cap; I believe that may have been reported using data from before the Palmer trade. If you look at spotrac's bottom line yesterday you might think nothing's changed. It looks to me like the dead cap was closer to $60 mil with the addition of Palmer, but you would not notice that if you had not seen the omission of Huff.

    Huff should count as dead cap in 2013. So far as I've ever seen reported, the only way to defer dead cap is to release/trade a guy after June 1. I've seen him in the dead cap list elsewhere, like this, with perhaps the total $ stated being the old number:

    http://www.silverandblackpride.com/...or-dead-money-now-for-major-cap-space-in-2014

    We're way past Packer relevance with this expenditure of ink. I like following situations like this to see how the data is presented, how it gets reported, which data ends up being accurate. My anecdotal observation is many reporters may be regularly quoting spotrac without attribution. We'll see if the reports get bumped to $60 mil (+additional moves) if and when spotrac makes a Huff correction.

    Here's an interesting observation: It is being reported this morning that Orlando McClain's dead cap number is being reduced by about $3 mil because of a reduction in his guaranteed money as a result of his suspension last year. Spotrac has already been updated for that!
     
  16. 13 Times Champs

    13 Times Champs Cheesehead

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  17. Bagadeez04

    Bagadeez04 Cheesehead

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    Assuming most of these guys can be had for near the veteran minimum? I see plenty of guys that could come help out, or at least give them a shot. Not saying to go sign a bunch of them...but Karlos Dansby, Andre Smith and Shaun Phillips all look like attractive options to bring in for a one year contract. I mean, why not. When we get decimated by injury as we do, it would be nice to have some depth.

    I will say, I know none of these FAs will be signed...this is just for discussion's sake.
     
  18. 13 Times Champs

    13 Times Champs Cheesehead

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    Well I don't want to see us going after these guys. You end up with a Jeff Saturday. I wanted the Packers to sign Huff and Steven Jackson. I think they had some life left, were reasonably priced and could have helped us. Alas that ship has sailed.
     
  19. HyponGrey

    HyponGrey Caseus Locutus Est

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    Phillips is the only guy I would even bother to call.
     
  20. Bagadeez04

    Bagadeez04 Cheesehead

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    Why not give Smith a shot? Most likely Sherrod is a lost cause.
     
  21. MiamiBeachPacker

    MiamiBeachPacker Cheesehead

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    Smith was looking for $10m/year
     
  22. Oshkoshpackfan

    Oshkoshpackfan YUT !!!

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    For that much $$ he might have a better chance looking for the easter bunny or santa claus
     
  23. ivo610

    ivo610 Cheesehead

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    Some guys are going to price themselves out if free agency. Woodson seems shocked that no one is interested in him. I'm shocked he wants big money.
     
  24. HyponGrey

    HyponGrey Caseus Locutus Est

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    Because he's a RT.
     
  25. Bagadeez04

    Bagadeez04 Cheesehead

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    SI know he's a right tackle. If we brought him in and he looked good move Bulaga over to the left side. The linr needs more talent.
     

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