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Football gonna become unwatchable
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<blockquote data-quote="HardRightEdge" data-source="post: 517473"><p>Yes, drafting has a crap-shoot element to it...however, like the craps table, certain wagers have better odds than others.</p><p></p><p>I took the time to go through the AP All-Pro roster from last year. Below you will find a list of those players drafted 1-10 in the first round and another list of players drafted 23-32...top vs. bottom of the round. This is one slice of the picture, but I think it's represenative:</p><p></p><p>1-10 picks:</p><p></p><p>P. Manning</p><p>AP</p><p>Megatron</p><p>Von Miller</p><p>Aldon Smith</p><p>A. J. Green</p><p>Andre Johnson</p><p>Joe Thomas</p><p>Justin Smith</p><p>Peppers</p><p>Suh</p><p>Ngata</p><p>Bailey</p><p></p><p></p><p>23-32 picks:</p><p></p><p>Rodgers</p><p>Matthews</p><p>David Wilson (as KR, not RB, so he probably doesn't count)</p><p>Duane Brown</p><p>Staley</p><p>Mankins</p><p>Maurkice Pouncey</p><p></p><p>I get it. TT caught lightning in a bottle, snagging two All-Pro impact players in the bottom of the first round. We all knew that. But why should we think he can repeat that? He hasn't done it since, the key front office staff that helped draft those players are gone, some of our other first round picks have not lived up to their draft spot, and the rest of the league doesn't have that much success at it. The overall composition of the current Packer roster certainly doesn't indicate any particularly outstanding eye for talent...above average, yes, when factoring in the players permanently lost to injury (Collins, Bishop) + Bulaga.</p><p></p><p>I wished I'd logged the middle group 11-22. As I was going through there were probably as many names in the second group as the first, such as Gonzalez, Willis and Ware.</p><p></p><p>From this small slice of data, indications would be to trade up to the middle of the first round. However, if you want a QB or WR who will have major impact in his first or second year, your odds are best at the very top.</p><p></p><p>Bottom line, drafting low year after year is a handicap in gathering together a core group of impact player needed to win. An elite QB with an average supporting cast can take you a long way, but it's not enough.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="HardRightEdge, post: 517473"] Yes, drafting has a crap-shoot element to it...however, like the craps table, certain wagers have better odds than others. I took the time to go through the AP All-Pro roster from last year. Below you will find a list of those players drafted 1-10 in the first round and another list of players drafted 23-32...top vs. bottom of the round. This is one slice of the picture, but I think it's represenative: 1-10 picks: P. Manning AP Megatron Von Miller Aldon Smith A. J. Green Andre Johnson Joe Thomas Justin Smith Peppers Suh Ngata Bailey 23-32 picks: Rodgers Matthews David Wilson (as KR, not RB, so he probably doesn't count) Duane Brown Staley Mankins Maurkice Pouncey I get it. TT caught lightning in a bottle, snagging two All-Pro impact players in the bottom of the first round. We all knew that. But why should we think he can repeat that? He hasn't done it since, the key front office staff that helped draft those players are gone, some of our other first round picks have not lived up to their draft spot, and the rest of the league doesn't have that much success at it. The overall composition of the current Packer roster certainly doesn't indicate any particularly outstanding eye for talent...above average, yes, when factoring in the players permanently lost to injury (Collins, Bishop) + Bulaga. I wished I'd logged the middle group 11-22. As I was going through there were probably as many names in the second group as the first, such as Gonzalez, Willis and Ware. From this small slice of data, indications would be to trade up to the middle of the first round. However, if you want a QB or WR who will have major impact in his first or second year, your odds are best at the very top. Bottom line, drafting low year after year is a handicap in gathering together a core group of impact player needed to win. An elite QB with an average supporting cast can take you a long way, but it's not enough. [/QUOTE]
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