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<blockquote data-quote="Magooch" data-source="post: 1086776" data-attributes="member: 17987"><p>IMO best-case scenario if we're healthy we pick up one, MAYBE two more wins. </p><p></p><p>Looking back over it.</p><p></p><p>We had a 90% win probability in Cleveland with ~3 min to go. Kraft and Parsons both there for it and we lose. <strong>Verdict: loss not due to injury</strong></p><p></p><p>Similarly we have a 85% probability with less than 2 minutes to go against Dallas, and </p><p>70%+ with less than a minute remaining in OT. Again we have both Kraft and Parsons and we settle for a tie. <strong>Verdict: tie not due to injury</strong></p><p></p><p>We start the game with an 80% win probability vs Carolina, and remain favored to win until just a few minutes left in the 3rd. Micah played, Tom had 100% of offensive snaps, and while Kraft got hurt in this game he didn't get injured until the 3rd quarter. And we had Watson playing as well. <strong>Verdict: loss not due to injury</strong></p><p></p><p>So IMO in all three of those there's really no way we can call them "injury losses".</p><p></p><p>On to the rest, we were actually opening "favorites" against Philly and had something like a 60% chance to win heading into halftime. Parsons was playing, Tom again played 100%, and Watson had over 80% of offensive snaps. Do we win that one if Kraft plays? I mean maybe so. but IMO you can make just as much of a case that our ridiculous handling of the kicking situation and godawful 4th-and-short management lost us that one every bit as much...<strong> Verdict: loss not due to injury; ST and coaching decisions/management a bigger factor</strong></p><p></p><p>Denver, maybe you can make a case for it? This is another game where we took an 80% win probability into the second half. We were of course without Kraft, and Tom only played about half the game. And then we saw Micah leave in the second half...but like I was saying before, we were absolutely in a position to win with the guys that we had... <strong>Verdict: injuries played a big part, but you can argue we had opportunity to put them away before injuries hit</strong></p><p></p><p>The second game against Chicago I've already addressed a few times. We had completely shut them down for 99% of the game and threw it away on special teams. That game is a 100% win if we just recover the onside kick, simple as that. I can't put that one on injuries. <strong>Verdict: loss not due to injury</strong></p><p></p><p>Finally we come to Baltimore. That one is hard for me to say because we were never really competitive in it. Like you watch that game and we got beat so thoroughly that it never really felt like "Well if we just had ____ we would have won" if you know what I mean. But it's hard to say. <strong>Verdict: injuries likely a factor; a healthy team at least plays them closer. Beaten comprehensively enough that I can't say for sure how it might change outcome.</strong></p><p></p><p>So yeah, I see it as one, MAYBE two additional wins, and frankly I don't know if winning one or two additional games in those situations does a ton to change our overall outlook or "mood" or whatever you want to call it. But more importantly IMO is that if we just put away teams like Carolina, Cleveland, Dallas, Chicago - the "non-injury losses" - we have more breathing room and can "afford" to lose games like Baltimore or possibly Denver. Just winning those "should have won" games puts us at 13 wins and competing for the #1 seed. So yes...injuries certainly DID play a factor but IMO when you consider the players we had available and the in-game situations that were presented to us....we still had every shot to be a #1 seed if we had just taken care of those sort of games. Instead, we are again finding ourselves at #7</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Magooch, post: 1086776, member: 17987"] IMO best-case scenario if we're healthy we pick up one, MAYBE two more wins. Looking back over it. We had a 90% win probability in Cleveland with ~3 min to go. Kraft and Parsons both there for it and we lose. [B]Verdict: loss not due to injury[/B] Similarly we have a 85% probability with less than 2 minutes to go against Dallas, and 70%+ with less than a minute remaining in OT. Again we have both Kraft and Parsons and we settle for a tie. [B]Verdict: tie not due to injury[/B] We start the game with an 80% win probability vs Carolina, and remain favored to win until just a few minutes left in the 3rd. Micah played, Tom had 100% of offensive snaps, and while Kraft got hurt in this game he didn't get injured until the 3rd quarter. And we had Watson playing as well. [B]Verdict: loss not due to injury[/B] So IMO in all three of those there's really no way we can call them "injury losses". On to the rest, we were actually opening "favorites" against Philly and had something like a 60% chance to win heading into halftime. Parsons was playing, Tom again played 100%, and Watson had over 80% of offensive snaps. Do we win that one if Kraft plays? I mean maybe so. but IMO you can make just as much of a case that our ridiculous handling of the kicking situation and godawful 4th-and-short management lost us that one every bit as much...[B] Verdict: loss not due to injury; ST and coaching decisions/management a bigger factor[/B] Denver, maybe you can make a case for it? This is another game where we took an 80% win probability into the second half. We were of course without Kraft, and Tom only played about half the game. And then we saw Micah leave in the second half...but like I was saying before, we were absolutely in a position to win with the guys that we had... [B]Verdict: injuries played a big part, but you can argue we had opportunity to put them away before injuries hit[/B] The second game against Chicago I've already addressed a few times. We had completely shut them down for 99% of the game and threw it away on special teams. That game is a 100% win if we just recover the onside kick, simple as that. I can't put that one on injuries. [B]Verdict: loss not due to injury[/B] Finally we come to Baltimore. That one is hard for me to say because we were never really competitive in it. Like you watch that game and we got beat so thoroughly that it never really felt like "Well if we just had ____ we would have won" if you know what I mean. But it's hard to say. [B]Verdict: injuries likely a factor; a healthy team at least plays them closer. Beaten comprehensively enough that I can't say for sure how it might change outcome.[/B] So yeah, I see it as one, MAYBE two additional wins, and frankly I don't know if winning one or two additional games in those situations does a ton to change our overall outlook or "mood" or whatever you want to call it. But more importantly IMO is that if we just put away teams like Carolina, Cleveland, Dallas, Chicago - the "non-injury losses" - we have more breathing room and can "afford" to lose games like Baltimore or possibly Denver. Just winning those "should have won" games puts us at 13 wins and competing for the #1 seed. So yes...injuries certainly DID play a factor but IMO when you consider the players we had available and the in-game situations that were presented to us....we still had every shot to be a #1 seed if we had just taken care of those sort of games. Instead, we are again finding ourselves at #7 [/QUOTE]
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