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Finally get to see Dallas freeze in Greenbay -- Official division game thread
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<blockquote data-quote="MichiganSportsTalk" data-source="post: 591414" data-attributes="member: 10289"><p>The data sample I used wasn't big enough to accurately show a trend, so I went full on nerd and did some research. Turns out I was wrong.</p><p></p><p>I took the stats for all active quarterbacks on the 4th qtr comeback list. I then omitted QBs who have played less than 64 games. I figured 4 solid years worth of NFL experience would eliminate a trend that leaned toward rookie mistakes/inexperience. That left me with 25 QBs.</p><p></p><p>I took the number of games played, and divided that by 4th qtr comeback wins to get a comeback win frequency (CW). The higher the number, the less frequent the comeback win.</p><p></p><p>I then took the number of pass attempts for their career and divided that by the number of career interceptions to get an INT frequency (INT). The lower the number, the higher the frequency of interceptions thrown.</p><p></p><p>Here is the graph created after entering all the data into an excel spreadsheet.</p><p><img src="http://www.michigansportstalk.com/images/QB-CW.gif" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" /></p><p></p><p>As the trend line for CW freq goes up (fewer comeback wins), the trend line for INT freq goes down (more interceptions).</p><p></p><p>So my initial assessment was wrong based on a small sample size. It would seem that taken as a whole, throwing <em>fewer</em> interceptions leads to <em>more</em> comeback wins. Which makes sense considering that the fewer mistakes you make when behind in the 4th qtr, the higher the chance you can get the comeback win.</p><p></p><p>And to answer the more pressing question, yes, I do get very bored and have too much free time.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="MichiganSportsTalk, post: 591414, member: 10289"] The data sample I used wasn't big enough to accurately show a trend, so I went full on nerd and did some research. Turns out I was wrong. I took the stats for all active quarterbacks on the 4th qtr comeback list. I then omitted QBs who have played less than 64 games. I figured 4 solid years worth of NFL experience would eliminate a trend that leaned toward rookie mistakes/inexperience. That left me with 25 QBs. I took the number of games played, and divided that by 4th qtr comeback wins to get a comeback win frequency (CW). The higher the number, the less frequent the comeback win. I then took the number of pass attempts for their career and divided that by the number of career interceptions to get an INT frequency (INT). The lower the number, the higher the frequency of interceptions thrown. Here is the graph created after entering all the data into an excel spreadsheet. [IMG]http://www.michigansportstalk.com/images/QB-CW.gif[/IMG] As the trend line for CW freq goes up (fewer comeback wins), the trend line for INT freq goes down (more interceptions). So my initial assessment was wrong based on a small sample size. It would seem that taken as a whole, throwing [I]fewer[/I] interceptions leads to [I]more[/I] comeback wins. Which makes sense considering that the fewer mistakes you make when behind in the 4th qtr, the higher the chance you can get the comeback win. And to answer the more pressing question, yes, I do get very bored and have too much free time. [/QUOTE]
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Finally get to see Dallas freeze in Greenbay -- Official division game thread
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