Fate

[FrankRizzo]

Can you imagine?
If the 49ers weren't so stupid back in that 2005 Draft?

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[packerstl101]

alex who? thank you 49ers

 

[Strolan]

Easy there big fella. The reason the A. Smith was chosen by the Niners that year instead of ARodge was because of the Niners QB coach at the time. Mr. Mike McCarthy.

 

[Wood Chipper]

Rodgers had time to learn and develop. Alex Smith was the starter from the beginning and has had to learn a new offense every year.

 

[GBPack2010]

Sometimes a little luck is needed to make to complete a championship caliber team

 

[neilfii]

Easy there big fella. The reason the A. Smith was chosen by the Niners that year instead of ARodge was because of the Niners QB coach at the time. Mr. Mike McCarthy.

Thanks a lot for the post. Now all of the conspiracy theorists are going to come out of the woodwork and speculate that MM caused A-Rod to fall to the Packers because he knew that one day he would be head coach in Green Bay and he knew Rodgers was a better QB. j/k but it is amazing how much difference one decision can make. I, for one, am happy things turned out as they did. :happy0005:

 

[FrankRizzo]

I bought The Sporting News Draft Preview that year.
And of course it's published quite a few weeks prior to the late April Draft, so they can sell it all of April and the end of March when excitement is starting.

They had former GMs and scouts on their panel.

And they had Rodgers the #1 overall pick, and did an article about Rodgers vs Smith, and they broke it all down and gave Aaron the edge.

But in the month of April, the 49er scouts and other scouts determined Rodgers wasn't as good as Smith somehow. All I can guess is, as often has been the case (Dan McGwire before Farve in 91, Sam Bowie before Michael Jordan in 84, Greg Oden over Kevin Durant in 08-09), they overvalued heighth and just took the taller specimen.

 

[armand34]

Kinda sucks to be a 49ers fan...lol

 

[GreenBayGal]

I guess the 49er scouts bet on the "show" instead of the "win". I wonder what they were thinking on February 6, 2011.

 

[PackersRS]

Rizzo that chart in your sig is amazing...

 

[TJV]

All I can guess is, as often has been the case (Dan McGwire before Farve in 91, Sam Bowie before Michael Jordan in 84, Greg Oden over Kevin Durant in 08-09), they overvalued heighth and just took the taller specimen.

I doubt the analysis was so simplistic regarding the NFL draft picks. McCarthy has said it was a very close call but the 9’ers decided on Smith because they thought he was more athletic than Rodgers. I also remember reading the concern of some that Rodgers was a “Tedford” QB, which wasn’t a compliment at the time, but I don't know if that figured into the 9ers' evaluation.

Regarding Favre, the story goes that Wolf had evaluated his senior season and was about to leave when an assistant coach at Southern Miss implored him to look at tape from Favre’s junior season. (Remember Favre had a pretty bad car accident before his senior year that affected his play.) So Wolf went back and looked at his junior season and that evaluation convinced him Favre was the best player in that draft. I’ll bet Wolf was the exception and other teams were evaluating Favre on his senior season.

 

[The Real Pack Attack]

All I can say is Thanks Ted!

 

[FrankRizzo]

Regarding Favre, the story goes that Wolf had evaluated his senior season and was about to leave when an assistant coach at Southern Miss implored him to look at tape from Favre’s junior season. (Remember Favre had a pretty bad car accident before his senior year that affected his play.) So Wolf went back and looked at his junior season and that evaluation convinced him Favre was the best player in that draft. I’ll bet Wolf was the exception and other teams were evaluating Favre on his senior season.

I remember reading about the Seahawks choosing Dan McGwire over Favre.
The scouts were divided on which of the two to take, and either the owner or the team president of Seattle at the time asked "who's taller", and they said Dan McGwire. He said take him then.

That was Mark McGwire's brother by the way. And he bombed out fast, just like the other QB taken ahead of Favre, Todd "I love pot" Marinovich.

 

[TJV]

The scouts were divided on which of the two to take, and either the owner or the team president of Seattle at the time asked "who's taller", and they said Dan McGwire. He said take him then.

If that’s true, it’s another example of how important Harlan’s decision to hire one “football man” to be in control of all football operations was. Before that the lines of authority were blurred in Green Bay (after Lombardi) with reports of the executive boards’ interference with football operations. It’s seems so obvious that someone completely immersed in the draft should be in charge of it. But even Harlan deviated from that idea when he promoted Sherman to the GM job. Look at the difference Thompson made in the draft using almost entirely the same scouts and personnel department.

 

[FrankRizzo]

If that’s true, it’s another example of how important Harlan’s decision to hire one “football man” to be in control of all football operations was. Before that the lines of authority were blurred in Green Bay (after Lombardi) with reports of the executive boards’ interference with football operations. It’s seems so obvious that someone completely immersed in the draft should be in charge of it. But even Harlan deviated from that idea when he promoted Sherman to the GM job. Look at the difference Thompson made in the draft using almost entirely the same scouts and personnel department.

Very true.
But then again, if David Akers doesn't have a terrible game in Wildcard Weekend, perhaps Ted Thompson would have been dismissed and written off.
Or had Tampa Bay not lost at home to the Lions in week 16, which allowed the Packers to enter the playoffs.

Think about the heat TT & MM would have faced.... remember this season on many boards and many media shows in Wisconsin, despite all the injuries, there were plenty of people questioning if Ted's method would ever lead to playoff success!

It's a fine fine line between failing and succeeding. Same thing is happening here in Dallas now with the Mavericks.

 

[Raptorman]

I doubt the analysis was so simplistic regarding the NFL draft picks. McCarthy has said it was a very close call but the 9’ers decided on Smith because they thought he was more athletic than Rodgers. I also remember reading the concern of some that Rodgers was a “Tedford” QB, which wasn’t a compliment at the time, but I don't know if that figured into the 9ers' evaluation.

Regarding Favre, the story goes that Wolf had evaluated his senior season and was about to leave when an assistant coach at Southern Miss implored him to look at tape from Favre’s junior season. (Remember Favre had a pretty bad car accident before his senior year that affected his play.) So Wolf went back and looked at his junior season and that evaluation convinced him Favre was the best player in that draft. I’ll bet Wolf was the exception and other teams were evaluating Favre on his senior season.

That's why Atalanta drafted him instead of Wolf I guess.

 

[TJV]

While there was some questioning of Thompson by fans I don’t think there was any chance Thompson’s job was in jeopardy last season even without the injuries. Add 15-16 players going to IR, including 6 starters and the chances of Murphy firing him were near zero IMO. Even without a playoff berth. Of course we'll never know and now Thompson will likely have his job as long as he wants it.

That's why Atalanta drafted him instead of Wolf I guess.

Actually, no. Wolf worked for Jets GM **** Steinburg in ’91 and the Jets didn’t have a first round pick in that draft. If they had a first rounder, Favre would have been a first round pick and Jets and Packers history would have been different. Wolf has said he had Favre rated as the top player in that draft and Steinburg was on board with that opinion enough to try to trade up in that draft to get Favre. In spite of those efforts the Jets were unable to move up. It looked as if Favre might fall to them at their #34 pick when Atlanta grabbed him at pick #33. The Jets settled for QB Browning Nagle with their pick.

 

[Raptorman]

While there was some questioning of Thompson by fans I don’t think there was any chance Thompson’s job was in jeopardy last season even without the injuries. Add 15-16 players going to IR, including 6 starters and the chances of Murphy firing him were near zero IMO. Even without a playoff berth. Of course we'll never know and now Thompson will likely have his job as long as he wants it.

Actually, no. Wolf worked for Jets GM **** Steinburg in ’91 and the Jets didn’t have a first round pick in that draft. If they had a first rounder, Favre would have been a first round pick and Jets and Packers history would have been different. Wolf has said he had Favre rated as the top player in that draft and Steinburg was on board with that opinion enough to try to trade up in that draft to get Favre. In spite of those efforts the Jets were unable to move up. It looked as if Favre might fall to them at their #34 pick when Atlanta grabbed him at pick #33. The Jets settled for QB Browning Nagle with their pick.

Ah, I see, Wolf wanted him for the Jets. If they got him instead of Atlanta then the Packers might have continued their wayward ways of the 70's and 80's.

 

[FrankRizzo]

Here's an article about that Seahawk blunder: Draft room tale: McGwire or Favre? - NFC West Blog - ESPN

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In 1991, the Seattle Seahawks chose Dan McGwire over Brett Favre.

April 21, 1991 – (Seahawks) – Dan McGwire, 1st Round Draft Pick: 17 picks later, the Atlanta Falcons would select future Hall of Famer Brett Favre. Little known fact: Seahawks head coach Chuck Knox WANTED to draft Brett Favre. Unfortunately, the Seahawks brass couldn’t be bothered with such matters, instead finding McGwire’s 6 foot 8 inch frame to be simply irresistible. Our “Quarterback of the Future” ended his Seahawks career after the 1994 season having thrown for 745 yards in 12 games with 2 touchdowns and 6 interceptions.

Top 10 Draft "Busts" in Seattle Seahawks History: #1 - Dan McGwire - Field Gulls

With the 16th pick in the 1991 Draft, the Seattle Seahawks selected Dan McGwire, a QB out of San Diego State. He was a lesser known player and by the consensus at the time was a major reach at that pick. Rumor has it that the Hawks' ownership and coaching staff were at odds over the selection - but unfortunately for McGwire and Seahawks' fans alike, Ken Behring, the Seahawks' then owner, trumped all and took McGwire despite the scouts' and head coach Chuck Knox's furious cries of disagreement. (Knox and co were set on taking Brett Favvvvv...ra)
McGwire, who stands 6'8, was the tallest QB in the history of the NFL, but never showed promise in Seattle. His first several seasons he sat at 2nd or 3rd in the depth chart and when he did come in to play he was atrocious. After three years on the Seahawks' bench, McGwire's 'successor,' Rick Mirer, was drafted by the Seahawks to play QB, and McGwire was seemingly the forgotten man. However, Mirer was soon injured, forcing McGwire into action. He started three games, completing 48% of his passes while throwing 1 TD to 3 interceptions and being sacked 13 times. He was cut from the Seahawks after the '94 season and caught on with the Dolphins briefly but was out of the league after only playing in one game for Miami.

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Despite being originally dubbed 'the quarterback of the future,' McGwire failed to develop into even a marginally effective quarterback after several years of being groomed on the bench and was finally released after four seasons for nothing in return.
Also, though many of the consequences of being drafted were out of McGwire's control, he unfortunately caused the rift between Ken Behring and Chuck Knox, ultimately leading to Knox's tenure with the Hawks coming to an end. The subsequent change of coaching staff marked the beginning of a downslide for the Hawks that lasted for seven years.

 

[FrankRizzo]

Again, we have a lot of love for DAN McGWIRE and then ALEX SMITH!
They allowed us to have the best stretch of 20 years of QB play ever.
(Well, Montana & Young might have something to say about that.... and Montana was a 3rd round pick, and Young was a failure with Tampa Bay and was a trade steal for the Niners, so everyone had a chance at both of those QBs as was the case with Favre and Rodgers really.... interesting!)

 

[TJV]

If they got him instead of Atlanta then the Packers might have continued their wayward ways of the 70's and 80's.

Not IMO. The turnaround started when Harlan took over and decided to hire a "football guy" to be in charge of all football decisions. It continued as Harlan made a great hire in Wolf and was cemented when Wolf picked Holmgren who put together a great staff. IMO the turnaround wasn't dependent upon any one player, including Favre.

 

[Darth Garfunkel]

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Clearly the Seahawks were impressed by his wicked mullet!

 

[weeds]

Not IMO. The turnaround started when Harlan took over and decided to hire a "football guy" to be in charge of all football decisions. It continued as Harlan made a great hire in Wolf and was cemented when Wolf picked Holmgren who put together a great staff. IMO the turnaround wasn't dependent upon any one player, including Favre.

Good post, TJV.

 

[FrankRizzo]

Not IMO. The turnaround started when Harlan took over and decided to hire a "football guy" to be in charge of all football decisions. It continued as Harlan made a great hire in Wolf and was cemented when Wolf picked Holmgren who put together a great staff. IMO the turnaround wasn't dependent upon any one player, including Favre.

That's true, and remember it took Reggie White to get this team a ring.
But in Benedict's defense, Reggie would not have gone to Green Bay if not for Favre.

Majkowski wouldn't have gotten Reggie to sign there.

 

[DevilDon]

Great post, I love these. So if Smith had dropped instead of Rodgers would the Packers have nabbed Smith? How might he have worked out if he were to sit behind Brett for three years.
I recently read where the Packers were interested in Larry English in 2009, BJ Raji somehow fell to them and they grabbed him. Later, San Diego took English and the Packers moved up to get Matthews. I remember thinking how I'd love to see the Packers draft Tyson Jackson and he went early to KC which was deemed a reach and allowed BJ to fall.
Great stuff.