Facts & Figures, News & Nuggets

[HardRightEdge]

From Seifert's blog:

Christian Ponder played the worst game of his career in a Week 13 loss to the Green Bay Packers. His Total Quarterback Rating (QBR) was 3.1 on a scale of 0-100.

Packers Pct. of Dropbacks Sending 5+ Pass-Rushers

By down vs. the Vikings this season.
Week 13Week 17
1st 30.0 44.4
2nd 75.0 70.0
3rd 75.0 25.0
Source: ESPN Stats & Information

Four weeks later, Ponder played arguably his best game in the Minnesota Vikings' 37-34 victory over the Packers. His QBR was 94.6.

So what happened? Other than the vagaries of pro sports, how do we explain the difference in Ponder's performances?

Ponder surely deserves credit for getting himself under control after the Lambeau Field disaster. Sunday was the culmination of a four-week trend that had him playing as well as any quarterback in the NFL, based on QBR analysis. But what role, if any, did the Packers play in Ponder's success -- particularly as a passer -- in last Sunday's game?

I asked John McTigue of ESPN Stats & Information to help answer that question. The charts in this post contain some of what he came up with.

In short: Defensive coordinator Dom Capers heavily blitzed Ponder in Week 13 but pulled back, especially on third downs, last Sunday. Ponder smoked the Packers on third down in the re-match, and you wonder if Capers will head back in the other direction during Saturday night's wild-card playoff game.

Christian Ponder on 3rd Down

This season vs. the Packers.
Week 13Week 17
Comp-Att 2-7 8-11
1st downs 2 6
Yds per att 4.0 7.9
Total QBR 5.5 98.6
Source: ESPN Stats & Information

The Packers blitzed Ponder on 60 percent of his dropbacks in the teams' first game, tied for the highest blitz percentage he faced this season. As the first chart shows, that figure increased to 75 percent on second and third downs. In the second game, the Packers' total blitz percentage dropped to 44 percent -- including 25 percent on third down.

The second chart shows Ponder was terrible on third down in the blitz-heavy first game and stellar when he mostly faced the Packers' standard rush in the second. Ponder had been steadily improving entering that Week 17 game, but you could argue the Packers made his job easier than it would have been if they had maintained their Week 13 approach.

We should make clear that game-planning and strategy is not this simple. The answer isn't necessarily to blitz Ponder more often on third down Saturday night. As outsiders, we're in a much better position to identify and discuss what happened than what should happen. But you now know what Capers understood on the short flight back to Green Bay last Sunday: That Ponder was near-perfect on the game's most important plays, and the circumstances surrounding that success were much different than those that contributed to his near-total failure just four weeks ago.

What Capers decides to do with that information is why people will buy tickets and watch Saturday night's game. The return of defensive back Charles Woodson brings back an important asset in Capers' bag of tricks. I'll be as interested as you to see his response.

 

[okcpackerfan]

From Siefert's blog:

Christian Ponder played the worst game of his career in a Week 13 loss to the Green Bay Packers. His Total Quarterback Rating (QBR) was 3.1 on a scale of 0-100.

Packers Pct. of Dropbacks Sending 5+ Pass-Rushers

By down vs. the Vikings this season.
Week 13Week 17
1st 30.0 44.4
2nd 75.0 70.0
3rd 75.0 25.0
Source: ESPN Stats & Information

Four weeks later, Ponder played arguably his best game in the Minnesota Vikings' 37-34 victory over the Packers. His QBR was 94.6.

So what happened? Other than the vagaries of pro sports, how do we explain the difference in Ponder's performances?

Ponder surely deserves credit for getting himself under control after the Lambeau Field disaster. Sunday was the culmination of a four-week trend that had him playing as well as any quarterback in the NFL, based on QBR analysis. But what role, if any, did the Packers play in Ponder's success -- particularly as a passer -- in last Sunday's game?

I asked John McTigue of ESPN Stats & Information to help answer that question. The charts in this post contain some of what he came up with.

In short: Defensive coordinator Dom Capers heavily blitzed Ponder in Week 13 but pulled back, especially on third downs, last Sunday. Ponder smoked the Packers on third down in the re-match, and you wonder if Capers will head back in the other direction during Saturday night's wild-card playoff game.

Christian Ponder on 3rd Down

This season vs. the Packers.
Week 13Week 17
Comp-Att 2-7 8-11
1st downs 2 6
Yds per att 4.0 7.9
Total QBR 5.5 98.6
Source: ESPN Stats & Information

The Packers blitzed Ponder on 60 percent of his dropbacks in the teams' first game, tied for the highest blitz percentage he faced this season. As the first chart shows, that figure increased to 75 percent on second and third downs. In the second game, the Packers' total blitz percentage dropped to 44 percent -- including 25 percent on third down.

The second chart shows Ponder was terrible on third down in the blitz-heavy first game and stellar when he mostly faced the Packers' standard rush in the second. Ponder had been steadily improving entering that Week 17 game, but you could argue the Packers made his job easier than it would have been if they had maintained their Week 13 approach.

We should make clear that game-planning and strategy is not this simple. The answer isn't necessarily to blitz Ponder more often on third down Saturday night. As outsiders, we're in a much better position to identify and discuss what happened than what should happen. But you now know what Capers understood on the short flight back to Green Bay last Sunday: That Ponder was near-perfect on the game's most important plays, and the circumstances surrounding that success were much different than those that contributed to his near-total failure just four weeks ago.

What Capers decides to do with that information is why people will buy tickets and watch Saturday night's game. The return of defensive back Charles Woodson brings back an important asset in Capers' bag of tricks. I'll be as interested as you to see his response.

can you post a link to what you copied and pasted this from instead of just saying someones blog?

 

[HardRightEdge]

can you post a link to what you copied and pasted this from instead of just saying someones blog?

He're the link: http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcnorth

I posted the text instead of the link because the blog posts roll down in time and then disappear.

 

[okcpackerfan]

He're the link: http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcnorth

I posted the text instead of the link because the blog posts roll down in time and then disappear.

understandable, I feel that if you are copying huge paragraphs you should always include the original source no matter what and I am not sure if that is a rule on this site or not. Thank you for posting the link, I really just wanted a link to see if there was other things of interest to read.

 

[Raptorman]

He're the link: http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcnorth

I posted the text instead of the link because the blog posts roll down in time and then disappear.

Hers the trick with ESPN blog posts' and links. Click on the title and it will give you that post all by itself, then copy the link. IF you notice in the one below on "Packers blitzing Ponder" if you click on it you will get only that blog posting. Each ESPN blog posting has it's own web page.


http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcnorth/post/_/id/51736/vikings-packers-iii-blitzing-ponder

Here's one from two weeks ago.

http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcnorth/post/_/id/51007/caption-this-clay-matthews-sack-dance

 

[FrankRizzo]

I gotta say I was living in MN at the time too. Was in High School at the time living in St Paul. Everyone in my school knew I was a Packer fan, even the teachers. That whole season was ridiculous in getting taunted almost daily by my classmates and gym teacher. I reveled in every minute of that loss, I also hated Vick and the Falcons at the time so I was all about them losing too. But Elway was still under center for the Broncos and I have loathed his smug face since they won the Super Bowl vs the Pack back in 98. I didn't know who to root for that year. In the end I think I ended up rooting for the Falcons and asking myself "why?".

Yeah 1998 was an interesting year to be a Packer fan living in Minnesota.
Remember, until that season, the Packers were the 2-time defending NFC Champions, and we still had Favray in his prime.
The Vikings had had some success certainly, especially pulling out lucky *** wins over us in that crappy dome.... 94, 95, 96 I was at all of them and left shocked we blew those games.....

Anyway, aside from being at those games, that area was Packer country until 98. Going to a ski slope, a mall, the Mall of America, wherever, you'd see 10 people in Packers shirts or hats, for every 1 in Vikings.
Some Vikings games still were getting blacked out locally or Kare-11 or someone else was having to buy a bunch of tickets at the last second to avert the blackout.

And then the 98 Draft came, and we had the gift of Randy Moss come to our pick at 18 or 19, and Ron Wolf chickened out and then the Vikings scooped him up thankfully.

They immediately became the greatest show on turf and almost went undefeated. Games sold out easily that year... and all of a sudden, now we saw tons of people around wearing Vikings jerseys, #84.

Guys like Raptorman here, he's been thru the ups and many downs, never has a season ended on the up note... and yet here he is still a passionate Viking fan. I respect the fans like him. There aren't that many who are true loyal passionate fans like him. Most of the Minnesotans jump off that bandwagon when things go bad.

Of all my friends from Minny, the best, most passionate, and smartest 2 both HATED PONDER and told me all last year and all this year that he's terrible, they can't win with the guy, and they need to turn the page away from that draft mistake sooner than later.

 

[JBlood]

And how many people on this board were alive to even watch one of those games live? It's like bragging on the Packers winning in the 60's when you weren't around to see it. Moot point. Different teams, different rules, different players, different owners. Has nothing to do with what happens today, tomorrow or Saturday.

As to the 15-1 team losing to Atlanta's 14-2 team, I am surprised a Packer fan would even bring that up after last year.

Born in '48 and witness to every Lombardi Championship and every Viking Championship Loss--including the Super Bowl Loss that ruined their only NFL Championship before the NFL/AFL merger. And then they lost the Ed Thorp Trophy that was given to NFL Champs prior to the Lombardi Trophy. The Vikes were the last winner of the trophy, and they can't find it. What an organization. Someone put the hex on the Yikes (Van Brocklin? Tarkenton? ) just as Bobby Layne did to the Lions when they traded him in '58. He said at the time the Lions wouldn't win for "50 years". It's 54 and counting.....It'll be 54 for the Vikings by the time they get in the new stadium.