Edge Rushers

[Dantés]

I've discussed this content with a few posters at various places on the forum, but I thought it would be helpful to centralize the information.

At edge rusher, more than any position, athletic metrics prove to be predictive. This is not to say that players with "poor" metrics can't succeed, but that players who demonstrate elite traits in the right tests have really high hit rates.

The single test that predicts edge rusher success more than any other is the three cone drill. I could try and theorize as to why that is, but I really don't know for sure and frankly it doesn't matter. The correlation is what we're interested in.

Below are the drafted edge rushers with three cone times 6.94 and below since 1999, with their draft round and specific time listed behind them.

-Sam Acho, 4th, 6.69
-Von Miller, 1st, 6.70
-Bruce Irvin, 1st, 6.70
-Trent Murphy, 2nd, 6.78
-Anthony Barr, 1st, 6.82
-Kyle Vanden Bosch, 2nd, 6.82
-Melvin Ingram, 1st, 6.83
-Kony Ealy, 2nd, 6.83
-Barkevious Mingo, 1st, 6.84
-Demarcus Ware, 1st, 6.85
-Connor Barwin, 2nd, 6.87
-David Pollack, 1st, 6.87
-J.J. Watt, 1st, 6.88
-Joey Bosa, 1st, 6.89
-Devin Taylor, 4th, 6.89
-Brian Robison, 4th, 6.89
-Cliff Avril, 4th, 6.90
-Clay Matthews, 1st, 6.90
-Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila, 5th, 6.90
-Vinny Curry, 2nd, 6.90
-Manny Lawson, 1st, 6.90
-Jake Bequette, 3rd, 6.90
-Vic Beasley, 1st, 6.91
-Daniel Te'o-Nesheim, 3rd, 6.91
-Michael Buchanan, 7th, 6.91
-Bo Schobel, 4th, 6.94

As anyone can see, there is a strong correlation between this drill and success. Clearly the correlation weakens as you get above 6.90. But from that point and down, you're looking at a success rate around 75%-- which is absurd.

So who fits the bill this year? Here are the names and their projected rounds:

-Tyus Bowser, 1st/2nd, 6.75
-T.J. Watt, 1st/2nd, 6.79
-Jordan Willis, 1st/2nd, 6.80
-Vince Biegel, 3rd/4th, 6.92
-Derek Rivers, 2nd, 6.94

Two highly rated pass rush prospects narrowly missed: Solomon Thomas (6.95) and Derek Barnett (6.96).

The other interesting thing to me about this group is that their excellence was not restricted to this one drill. All of them except for Biegel were over 120" in the broad jump (and he was at 118"). If you further narrow that list to those prospects who met 118+ in that drill, you get the following:

-Von Miller (126)
-Bruce Irvin (123)
-Barkevious Mingo (128)
-Demarcus Ware (122)
-Connor Barwin (128)
-Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila (120)
-Clay Matthews (121)
-Manny Lawson (124)
-Vic Beasley (130)
-Kyle Vanden Bosch (119)
-David Pollack (120)
-J.J. Watt (120)
-Joey Bosa (120)
-Devin Taylor (128)
-Brian Robison (121)
-Daniel Te'o-Nesheim (121)

That is just a crazy success rate.

Bottom line-- the athletic profiles of T.J. Watt, Tyus Bowser, and Jordan Willis make them high percentage propositions. Derek Rivers and Vince Biegel are not that far behind. Thomas and Barnett, who jumped 126" and 117" respectively, are also pretty decent propositions.

If anyone was wondering why I harp on combine drill times for edge players, this is why.

 

[Patriotplayer90]

K. Mack and C. Jones are a couple of guys who ran over 7, but had excellent explosive drills.

The kid out of UCLA worries me, as TT could follow his trend of drafting DL from this school. He's got a great 40 time, average everything else, and doesn't seem to have the slippery bend that you would like out of an edge rusher. Willis seems stiff, but I have greater faith in him. I'd be fine with him or Watt, as their arrows are pointed way up.

 

[Dantés]

K. Mack and C. Jones are a couple of guys who ran over 7, but had excellent explosive drills.

The kid out of UCLA worries me, as TT could follow his trend of drafting DL from this school. He's got a great 40 time, average everything else, and doesn't seem to have the slippery bend that you would like out of an edge rusher. Willis seems stiff, but I have greater faith in him. I'd be fine with him or Watt, as their arrows are pointed way up.

Certainly-- I'll reiterate that these metrics aren't predictive in the negative. There are plenty of good pass rushers without great 3 cone times. But they are predictive in the positive in that great times mean high success rates.