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Draft Philosophy

Discussion in 'Packer Fan Forum' started by spardo62, Apr 28, 2008.

  1. spardo62

    spardo62 Cheesehead

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    "But Thompson's win-through-the-draft philosophy works this way: if he's making the right picks every year, the process of competition will weed out weak links on the roster and make the team better than it was the year before. Thus, even if the three only make minor contributions this season, their presence should elevate the bar for making this team, not to mention provide valuable depth."

    That from Tom Silverstein's article in the JS pretty much sums up how one must view not only this draft, but every draft he has and will make during his tenure in Green Bay.

    People tend to get too worked up about marquee names and "positions of need" when analyzing a draft, while the correct view would be to see if we are adding quality football players regardless of position, capable of pushing those currently on the roster and contributing in that manner - as well as adding depth, special teams and insurance and no significant drop off if called on, while also having the potential to be above average starters in the next several years.

    The answer to those questions will not be answered for several years.
     
  2. Greg C.

    Greg C. Cheesehead

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    What we learned this year is that Ted Thompson will trade down for more picks even if he doesn't have a lot of holes to fill on the roster. A lot of people (myself included) were not expecting his draft to play out that way this year.

    I think the reason Ted does this is that his draft board looks different from most other teams' draft boards, and he is confident that he is right and they are wrong. So, for example, if there are half a dozen players still on the board who he thinks should have been taken already, why not trade down six spaces? You're going to have a chance to pick at least one of them, plus you'll get an entire extra pick in the bargain.

    Ted is just playing the percentages. As long as his draft board is accurate and he has a good enough coaching staff to bring out that talent, his approach will be successful.

    I thought it was funny that he traded a 7th round pick to the Saints for their 6th rounder next year. I'm glad that my team was on the smart end of that deal. If Mike Sherman was still GM, it probably would've been the other way around.
     
  3. Bobby Roberts

    Bobby Roberts Cheesehead

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    The right player for one team is not necessarily the right player for another.

    A good OG for many teams might not be a good fit in the ZBS. A great CB or safety may be good for cover 2, but struggle in bump and run. A RB may be good with a lead blocker in a power blocking scheme, but struggle with the quick cut and run of the ZBS. A WR may be a burner but not good at YAC.

    Those guys could be great college players with high draft status, but they wouldn't fit on the GB roster. One thing to consider when trading down is who could you lose out on? If there isn't a player that would fit on your team and you are stuck with either reaching for some guy or trading down to get an extra pick, TT obviously believes the best choice is to get the extra pick. Don't reach for players and don't pick players who won't fit in terms of strengths and chemistry.

    If you want to look at TT's philosophy, read this further down in the same article:
    "We wanted to try to get a tight end if it worked out from a value standpoint during the course of the draft. We weren't specifically looking to draft a defensive end, but we felt a good one got in a position where we could get him, and kind of the same way with a receiver. I think we just added quality to our team."
    The draft is about adding quality players to the team. There are certain positions you want to fill, but TT only picks those if they have the value at the time. BPA is very difficult because you don't have 224+ players in a perfect order of best to worst. In the 2nd to 3rd rounds, there's likely 10-15 players about equal at each spot -- even more in the later rounds. So if you've picking at #75 and there's a TE amoung the 15 players worthy of that spot, then grab him. If you feel that TE is only worth pick #120 or later, then don't reach for him. Instead pick a high quality player.
    Of course if there is a DE who you feel is worth #75, but slipped down to #120 -- then jump up and grab him!

    The philosophy is very different from most GMs. I think most GMs go into the draft with a shopping list of needs and attempt to find guys to fill holes on your team. If the focus is on the needs rather than the players, then you'll likely end up reaching for lower quality players.

    TT's focus is on quality and getting the best players for the team. That's how the youngest team in the NFL could get to the NFC championship last year!

    GO PACK GO!!!
     
  4. TheKanataThrilla

    TheKanataThrilla Cheesehead

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    I often wonder whether TT is behind an 8-ball with some of his picks. Let's just say that Green Bay is not the choice destination for many of those being drafted. I think he must try and balance the skill of the player, with the desire to play in Green Bay. If they are not going to be happy it may be a useless pick.
     
  5. Pack93z

    Pack93z You retired too? .... Not me. I'm in my prime

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    Excellent thoughts gents and I think you all have hit on some very sound points.

    I think part of the reason we have been so successful so quickly is that from Ted through the coaching staff and into the scouting department the communication and core needs are being articulated very well. We are seeming to scout the right types of players for the most part that fit into how the coaching staff wants to play ball on the field.

    We are not going to hit on each and every player, some players won't translate the same from college to the pro game. Some will have the injury bugs and what not. But other than the offensive line, I think we are hitting moreso than we are missing in terms of drafting, signing or trading for players to fit our team.

    If we could just seem to have the same percentage of success on the offensive line with our additions, we might be holding a SB trophy for the past year.
     
  6. warhawk

    warhawk Cheesehead

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    I will say that I think TT has the perfect mindset for a draft. I think he asks himself the question "which player on the board will be the most productive and playing at a high level in the NFL two, three years from now."
    He picks that guy.
    He will NEVER win the draft guru's over because they list the team needs and then see how the GM fills those needs. When will people get it that if you have many needs and your answer is a ROOKIE you are probably screwed. Only a handfull will answer that call any given year.

    Ted does this:
    1) Finds high character players that fit in with what it is you need them to do.
    2) DEPTH. You are only going as far as backups get you to a degree because starters ARE going to get hurt.

    Look at the Giants. Shockey get's hurt. No problem. Defensive backs banged up all over the place. Reserves come in and make plays and keep them competing at a HIGH level. That's what CHAMPIONSHIP TEAMS do.

    I also think TT is very smart in how he looks ahead.

    Many wondered about picking Jordy Nelson. Here's what I see. You have a new QB and you have a pretty solid WR group. Play what if. What if Driver goes down? Here is a position where when ONE guy goes down it affects at least three positions. Now I believe JJ can handle moving up to #1 WR but the question becomes whether or not #2 and #3 can do the job at the level they need considering AR is out there for the first time.

    If NOT opposing teams clamp down on the run and suffocate our offense so it never hurts to have good competition there.

    Playoff teams ATTACK WEAKSPOTS so the answer to that is not have any which is why you see TT constantly building quality depth. It's also why we have come from the worst special teams to one of the best which NEVER hurts when you get in the big games.

    IMO this is why we are once again among the playoff teams. We got away from reaching for players in the draft at positions we had a need like DE's and CB's that are no longer in the league and began drafting guys that can actually play in the NFL.
     
  7. Pack93z

    Pack93z You retired too? .... Not me. I'm in my prime

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    Heck of a post there Warhawk.. glad to see you posting again. Thanks.
     
  8. Zombieslayer

    Zombieslayer Cheesehead

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    Agreed. Smart move by us, dumb move by them.
     
  9. SpartaChris

    SpartaChris Cheesehead

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  10. PackersRS

    PackersRS Cheesehead

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    Yeah, saw that too. This is a good thread to bring back.

    I have to admit, I don't think I'll ever be 100% on the management side.

    But I trust what they are doing. So though I disagree with some moves (Harrell, Crosby, Brohm), I understand why they make it.
     
  11. aaronqb

    aaronqb Cheesehead

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    retire
     
  12. SpartaChris

    SpartaChris Cheesehead

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    The new software made it pretty easy actually. Typed in some key words and it found a bunch of related threads. I debated over whether I should bring back a 2 year old forum topic, but figured why not, since it's obviously on topic and wasn't locked.

    Anyway, I trust our scouts and our GM. He's proven more than once that he knows what he's doing, and while he's not flawless for the reasons you mentioned, he definitely hits more than his share of home runs with his picks.

    And it could be worse.
     

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