1. Welcome to Green Bay Packers NFL Football Forum & Community!

    Packer Forum is one of the largest online communities for the Green Bay Packers. You are currently viewing our community forums as a guest user.

    Sign Up or

    Having an account grants you additional privileges, such as creating and participating in discussions. Furthermore, we hide most of the ads once you register as a member!
    Dismiss Notice

Draft Expectations...let's discuss

Discussion in 'Draft Talk' started by tynimiller, Apr 12, 2016.

  1. tynimiller

    tynimiller Cheesehead

    Joined:
    May 2, 2012
    Messages:
    1,073
    Ratings:
    +331
    Okay a lot of discussion comes and goes on what we expect from draft picks, and sadly that is often centered around the round of their selection...and sometimes to a degree that is very justified.

    Example, AJ Hawk...amazingly solid and dependable player that excelled at what he did well and sucked at what he well sucked at. But in his prime would have started on nearly every team given what he did well he did well. However, he was not worth the pick we used him at many argue and I'd tend to agree.

    That got me thinking though, what do you expect from draft picks, realistically. Amish brought up just recently that for a Super Bowl contender expectations get less the deeper you go...which makes sense to me, the better team you have the harder it is for guys to break into the lineup.

    With all that said my "VERY rough general thoughts" are as follows, each draft class and depth of positions changes this:

    Top 10 pick no matter position:
    IMO should be a starter from day one. They are the future of the team in many cases or at minimum the future of their position for years to come...anything less is disappointing, not necessarily a bust if they don't go All Pro but disappointment for sure.

    Mid/Late 1st through Late 2nd Round:
    A lot of this depends on the draft year and class but in this area I expect starter or competitive for a starting role...nearly at any position. QBs or RBs perhaps not and WRs I could see justifying a 3rd option for a year in this slot, but this guy should be able to come in and contribute at minimum situational scenarios with the #1's on game days.

    3rd/4th Rounders:
    The area of the draft I call the meat and potatoes of the draft. Often times not gonna be anything fancy, but oh man the payoff can be sweet. I still have higher expectations for skill type positions here like WRs and RBs and perhaps TEs, but expectations begin scaling back especially with LBs, DBs and QBs.......often times this is where you can still find awesome OL and a few DL or specialists who excel at one facet of their position but lack skills in another spot. To me I expect these guys to fully live out their rookie contract, contribute on STs and hopefully you find one maybe two long term success a draft from them.

    5th/6th Rounders:
    Expectations of long term success are scaled back, yet some skill positions like WRs can still be hand that excell in maybe one facet of the game like stretching the field but lack hands...or maybe they will win jump balls but won't beat a DB to a spot. Depth is built here for sure, and typically are guys you want to have on your chart but not see much playing time unless up by a big margin on game days....or excel on STs. Again, I don't expect many to see their second contract...and it is a bonus if they do and they've already exceeded expectations.

    7th/Undrafted:
    Workhorses, practice squads and depth. That is all you can hope for. You get anything more than ST's or practice body help from them be extremely happy! The gems found here are rare, but often times when you find them they are the Donald Drive type stories....motivated workhorses that will fight and claw to make a roster and keep progressing.


    I think people need some reality checks in expectations when it comes to drafts.....people expecting TT and Company to find 3 or 4 or 5 bonafide first year starters a draft are just asinine thoughts and quite frankly you should go be a Viking fan.
     
    • Agree Agree x 2
    • Like Like x 1
  2. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

    Joined:
    Jul 23, 2012
    Messages:
    12,630
    Ratings:
    +6,598
    Mostly agree with your assessment of what to expect from draft picks. With Thompson being extremely reluctant to use free agency to improve positions of need he has to be extremely successful in the draft though. Fortunately he has been able to mostly do a great job but the lack of talent acquired in the 2011 and ´12 draft has left the teams with several holes to fill.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  3. tynimiller

    tynimiller Cheesehead

    Joined:
    May 2, 2012
    Messages:
    1,073
    Ratings:
    +331
    Agreed, he really needed 1 more "stick" from each and I think it'd be a different outlook right now.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  4. El Guapo

    El Guapo Cheesehead

    Joined:
    Dec 7, 2011
    Messages:
    3,518
    Ratings:
    +1,990
    I'm with your assessment as well.

    My general view is that the GM has seven opportunities to find contributors in each draft. I honestly don't care when they are selected. If four of the seven become starters and they are the last four rounds, I couldn't care. Each team has a pot of money to spread over the draft picks, how it is allocated specifically is irrelevant. Emotionally you "want" the highest paid players to succeed, but it truly doesn't matter.

    This is why I lean toward accumulating draft choices the way that TT generally does it. There is a lot of skill involved in talent evaluation, but in the end that is not even half of what determines a good player. Injuries, drugs & alcohol, motivational issues, and off-field problems can affect whether or not a player succeeds in the NFL. So it becomes sort of an educated gamble in the draft, even in the Top 10. I'd rather bring 10 guys into camp from the draft and hope to get 5-6 starters than trying to get that out of the standard size draft class.
     
    • Agree Agree x 2
    • Like Like x 1
  5. AmishMafia

    AmishMafia Cheesehead

    Joined:
    Sep 27, 2010
    Messages:
    2,975
    Ratings:
    +2,226
    There is always a balance of risk and reward with every pick. The best example of this is ILB Jaylon Smith this year. He is is probably a top 3 pick. Great athlete, great skills, tough, and a great attitude and aptitude. He is the ideal ILB for the Packers.

    But will be be as good after the injury? Suppose your doctors say there is a 80% chance he recovers 100%. Yes, I would say you take him at 27. What if there is only a 10% chance he recovers fully? Then I only risk a 4th round on him. Now, at what % risk would I accept at #27 pick? I suppose it would depend on what other players are available.

    Just a disclaimer in my Smith assessment. I said the same about Hawk. I still scratch my head on why he didnt have a HOF career. Oh well.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  6. tynimiller

    tynimiller Cheesehead

    Joined:
    May 2, 2012
    Messages:
    1,073
    Ratings:
    +331
    I 100% agree, if our team doctor's foresee Jaylon having a 80% chance (however they measure this) of regaining form, he is without question worth the risk at #27. I just don't want to be the one that makes that call haha!
     
  7. jetfixer

    jetfixer Cheesehead

    Joined:
    Feb 26, 2013
    Messages:
    145
    Ratings:
    +31
    TT has found some pretty good players over the years, missed on some first rounders, found some undrafted guys too. Overall pretty good IMO.
     
  8. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

    Joined:
    Jul 23, 2012
    Messages:
    12,630
    Ratings:
    +6,598
    The problem being that there is no way doctors will be able to make such an assessment until Smith will be able to get on the field again, which will be long after the draft has been held.
     
  9. AmishMafia

    AmishMafia Cheesehead

    Joined:
    Sep 27, 2010
    Messages:
    2,975
    Ratings:
    +2,226
    I would imagine what they will do is to look at other players with similar injuries. Develop a level of probability based on history, medical developments, rehab developments, and personal factors. It is all they have to go on and TTs only option is to take the best available information and weigh his choices.

    There are no guarantees in the draft. Every pick you have to play the odds, acquiring as much information as possible.
     
  10. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

    Joined:
    Jul 23, 2012
    Messages:
    12,630
    Ratings:
    +6,598
    True, I would be fine with drafting him from the third round on if Thompson drafts an inside linebacker and a defensive lineman. Not in the first round though.
     
  11. tynimiller

    tynimiller Cheesehead

    Joined:
    May 2, 2012
    Messages:
    1,073
    Ratings:
    +331
    Honestly, I view Jaylon worth the risk at our 3rd round pick and on no matter what....well unless we ever hear catastrophic news. Dude "IF" recovered fully is one of the best talents at ILB we've seen in a few years.

    However, I do believe TT and Co. will play it more similar to what you lay out captain, it will all depend how the 2 rounds play out prior. I don't think TT grabs Jaylon before the 3rd unless doctors tell him he is going to be 100% fine.
     
  12. AmishMafia

    AmishMafia Cheesehead

    Joined:
    Sep 27, 2010
    Messages:
    2,975
    Ratings:
    +2,226
    This is one of those situations where we have near zero information on which to base his value. I am fine with gambling on him, but I would need a few medical reports and a few hours with a specialist to gauge the risk. He may go in the first round and be a huge value at #27or he may go undrafted. We have no idea. 32 teams have a medical opinion on him and they are all probably different. And you can be sure they won't be freely sharing their real opinion.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  13. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

    Joined:
    Jul 23, 2012
    Messages:
    12,630
    Ratings:
    +6,598
    There´s no doubt a healthy Jaylon Smith would have been long gone by the time the Packers are on the clock in the first round. If doctors are convinced he will return to full health he most likely won´t last to our third round pick.
     
  14. tynimiller

    tynimiller Cheesehead

    Joined:
    May 2, 2012
    Messages:
    1,073
    Ratings:
    +331
    I get that. To me I have no doubt the risk of potential payoff is worth a 3rd round gamble no matter what. The issue is what do we do in the 2nd round....if the doctors say TT he has a better chance than not being able to play closer to what he was than not at all? That is a seat I don't want to have to sit in...and I think given our situation and traditional tendencies we will pass....but I think we could regret that in a HUGE way.
     
  15. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

    Joined:
    Jul 23, 2012
    Messages:
    12,630
    Ratings:
    +6,598
    I agree that it´s for sure not an easy decision to make.
     
  16. Vrill

    Vrill Cheesehead

    Joined:
    Nov 1, 2011
    Messages:
    1,782
    Ratings:
    +828
    I hope we stack DL and LB with a touch of OL in this draft personally. Maybe come away with a WR and RB also.
     
  17. Poppa San

    Poppa San SB I trophy First of four Staff Member Moderator

    Joined:
    Aug 29, 2010
    Messages:
    5,831
    Ratings:
    +1,626
    Going back to the theme of the OP:

    IMO the top two rounds should get players that can be a positional starter their first season. Maybe not opening weekend but definitely by the second half of the schedule. Higher the pick the sooner. After that they should be at least solid starters if not probowlers at some point in their rookie contract. Rd 3 & 4 same thing during year 2. Probowl if they have career years. Round 5 should be a spot starter by late in year 2 or at least be a competent journeyman by year 3. Whatever you get out of rounds 6 & 7 fill in the ST roster. Anything above that is gravy. Hit this and you are pretty much set at draft and develop without needing any FA.

    CM3 and Lacy are examples of the first set. Rodgers was probably ready to start regularly by the middle of season 2 but wasn't really needed. Lang, Sitton, Tretter fit the second set. Ignoring players that start because of injuries like Linsley of course.
     
  18. PikeBadger

    PikeBadger Cheesehead

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2013
    Messages:
    1,383
    Ratings:
    +453
    Imo, the original post was very good. Outside of the top 10-12 picks, in most years guys 13-50 on a draft board are pretty similar in athletic ability.
     
  19. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

    Joined:
    Jul 23, 2012
    Messages:
    12,630
    Ratings:
    +6,598
    Unfortunately it doesn't always work out that way and multiple draft picks end up not having an impact at all.
     
  20. Poppa San

    Poppa San SB I trophy First of four Staff Member Moderator

    Joined:
    Aug 29, 2010
    Messages:
    5,831
    Ratings:
    +1,626
    Hypothetically is what I want. I expect at least 3starters within 2 years from every draft. Plus a journeyman level or two.
     
  21. Pokerbrat2000

    Pokerbrat2000 Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.

    Joined:
    Oct 30, 2012
    Messages:
    4,674
    Ratings:
    +2,895
    Last edited: Apr 15, 2016
  22. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

    Joined:
    Jul 23, 2012
    Messages:
    12,630
    Ratings:
    +6,598
    It seems like his medical recheck didn't result in any significant news, which isn't surprising at all. What was interesting is that I heard many teams believe he will be back to full strength for the 2017 season.
     
  23. Pokerbrat2000

    Pokerbrat2000 Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.

    Joined:
    Oct 30, 2012
    Messages:
    4,674
    Ratings:
    +2,895
    I don't think Smith's stock went down today and for those teams thinking its enough news that he may be ready in 2017, they may now be eye balling him for round 2.

    Updated my post with a bit more information from Rapoport, for what its worth.
     
  24. Pokerbrat2000

    Pokerbrat2000 Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.

    Joined:
    Oct 30, 2012
    Messages:
    4,674
    Ratings:
    +2,895
    With some teams raising eyebrows now about Myles Jack......what if he slips to #27?
     
  25. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

    Joined:
    Jul 23, 2012
    Messages:
    12,630
    Ratings:
    +6,598
    Draft him, won't happen though.
     

Share This Page