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Draft Day Trade Partners

Discussion in '2013 Draft Archive' started by 13 Times Champs, Apr 12, 2013.

  1. 13 Times Champs

    13 Times Champs Cheesehead

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  2. HyponGrey

    HyponGrey Caseus Locutus Est

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    I'd rather stick to shafting the belly.
     
  3. TJV

    TJV Lifelong Packers Fanatic

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    The Dolphins have the 12th pick in the first round and I don’t think there’s any way Thompson would trade up to that spot. According to the draft value chart, the 12th pick = 1200 points and the Packers first three picks – coincidently – also add up to 1200 points. (The draft value chart isn’t adhered to strictly but I think it gives us an idea of what it will take to move around in the draft.) Thompson’s boldest move in the draft so far has been to go up into the late first round to pick Clay at #26 and not only had he already exercised pick #9, but he had an extra third rounder to include in the trade up. Surrendering his first three picks for one would be much, much bolder/riskier. And he has said he doesn’t like trading valuable picks between years, either giving or receiving them.

    IMO trading down is more likely and the Dolphins have the ammo to trade up into the Packers’ #26. They have extra picks in rounds 2 and 3: Picks #42, #54, #77, & #82. The Packers first rounder = 700 points and the Dolphins’ picks #42 and #77 = 685 points. But would Thompson want to go down 16 spots? Doesn’t seem likely to me but who knows – it depends upon who they would be targeting at that point of the draft. The Packers would then have picks #42, #55, #77, and #88 in rounds two and three. BTW, the Dolphins picks #54, #77, and #82 =745 points but I think it’s iffy Thompson would drop 16 spots out of their first round pick, I really don’t see him dropping 28 spots.

    The Pats have traded the middle of their draft. They have their first three picks (#29, #59, #91) and two seventh rounders so they may be partners if Thompson wants to trade up.
     
  4. HyponGrey

    HyponGrey Caseus Locutus Est

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    I expect SF to do some trading up, so possibilities exist there as well
     
  5. rodell330

    rodell330 Cheesehead

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    Smh. They are going to be tough to beat. We have alot of work to do.
     
  6. HyponGrey

    HyponGrey Caseus Locutus Est

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    Relax, we'll beat them easily 2 years from now.
     
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  7. adambr2

    adambr2 Cheesehead

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    I would trade the Dolphins 26 for 42 and 54, but not 42 and 77.
     
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  8. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    The 12th. pick will not likely present good value. I think it would make more sense to trade down to around #35 and snag another pick. There should be some decent DTs left at that spot.
     
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  9. rodell330

    rodell330 Cheesehead

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    Haha ok.. that made me feel better.
     
  10. AmishMafia

    AmishMafia Cheesehead

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    I think that from 20s to 50, there isn't that big of a drop in talent. If TT can go back 10-15 and pick up a 4th, that would be a good move.

    As far as the 12th pick - I wondered a few weeks ago if Star Loutelelei was going to drop there. In which case, he may be worth the trade up (only because I consider him one of the best players in the draft). I doubt he drops that far now.
     
  11. adambr2

    adambr2 Cheesehead

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    If we drop 10-15 spots, I expect us to pick up a 3rd. Buffalo's 41st and 71st picks, for example, are worth 725 points where the 26th pick is worth 700. I know this isnt followed to a tee, but those are close in value.

    I do expect us to get value if we trade down, and not trade down for the sake of doing so.
     
  12. AmishMafia

    AmishMafia Cheesehead

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    I just don't see it. Again, I think the player we get at 26 is about the same 'value' as the player at 40. Why would a team give up much to do that? Only thing is you are getting to select the position as opposed to choosing between just a couple of players at a few positions.

    The charts, if they were actually used, would have to be adjusted each season for the actual talent level of that particular draft. It would also have to be adjusted as the draft unfolds - that is, what if our #7th rated player is still on the board at #26. How much more would a team have to give up before we part with that? Maybe if there is a great player at #26 that Buffalo had ranked really high we could get the 3rd also.
     
  13. TJV

    TJV Lifelong Packers Fanatic

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    In addition to adjusting the trade value chart each year for the depth of the talent tiers, to be more precise they'd have to be adjusted team-by-team because each teams' tiers are different. That's why even in a year in which the consensus is there's a deep tier from 20-something to 40-something (or whatever the numbers are) a team may want to jump into the #26 spot because there's a player available they had in the upper tier - perhaps a QB because of the importance of the position. And I agree if a player the Packers had rated in an upper tier were still there at #26, my guess is it would take a great deal more than the "vanilla" trade value chart numbers to get Thompson to move off of that spot.

    As I've posted more than once, I'm not a draftnic (not that there's anything wrong with that!) so I haven't studied any of the draftees but if the consensus is right I'm hoping the Packers don't make a pick on Thursday and are the recipient of a panicked GMs desire to move up in the draft.
     
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  14. AmishMafia

    AmishMafia Cheesehead

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    TT has done an amazing job. His trade up for Clay and many of his trade-backs have been very advantageous to the Packers. The analysis that was recently done that showed TT being superior in drafting was flawed. What it should have considered is just how many picks became good and not the percentage. When you do that, TT is likely superior to any other GM. His trading back and getting 2 picks should be evaluated as 1 pick. That is - if he starts with one pick trades back to get 2 picks and 1 pick becomes a pro bowler and the other gets cut - he started with 1 pick and ended with a pro bowler. That is more reflective of his success and strategy than saying he hit on 50% of his picks.

    As far as draft trade chart - one of the more overused things by draftnics. If I recall, the Matthew trade was lopsided 890-730 in favor of NE and Packer fans were upset. The Jennings trade back was also lopsided in favor of NE - they took WR jackson at our spot. We did well with that one too.
     
  15. ivo610

    ivo610 Cheesehead

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    With reports of a large portion (half?) of the first 15 teams wanting to trade down if you have someone rated high this would be there year to trade up. Throw the draft chart out, I bet a team would take a 2nd to move down 10- 15 spots in the first round.
     
  16. adambr2

    adambr2 Cheesehead

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    But value at #26 compared to #40 is the perspective of each individual team, not across the board.

    My premise is that a team drafting early 2nd will be looking for their QB in the late first for a couple different reasons: 1) They are under control for 5 years vs. 4, and 2) They may likely not fall to early 2nd.

    It is actually extremely advantageous for a team to get a franchise QB late in the 1st versus early in the 2nd. It's the difference between the 49ers having Kaepernick for 4 years or 5, currently, before he would hit UFA.

    Obviously, we're not looking for a QB at #26 or #40. But to another team, it may be worth a 3rd. And I'd maintain that that far of a drop for us will command at least a 3rd -- I don't see any way TT does it for a 4th or less.
     
  17. PikeBadger

    PikeBadger Cheesehead

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    Cincinnati, Buffalo, Jets, Titans & Raiders I think are all potential trading partners now.
     

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