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Dr. Z on Favre

Discussion in 'Packer Fan Forum' started by JBlood, Jul 2, 2005.

  1. JBlood

    JBlood Cheesehead

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    From Sports Ill.com Dr. Z's latest diatribe on Brett. Seems to forget that without Brett its unlikely we're in the playoffs at any time in the last 13 years:



    The facts on Favre
    Pack QB a HOF'er, but makes too many bad decisions
    Posted: Friday July 1, 2005 3:18PM; Updated: Friday July 1, 2005 4:24PM


    [​IMG]



    Brett Favre thought he was enjoying a nice, quiet offseason, but here he is, a Mailbag cause celebre, and we're just barely out of June.

    Jon of Chicago feels Favre "makes rookie mistakes and relies too much on arm strength, rather than reads." He noticed that KC Joyner, the guy who wrote the chart book I mentioned last week, shares his opinion. How about me?

    Well, now we've hit the trifecta because I agree with both you and KC. Favre's a great competitor who will get my vote when his name comes up for Hall of Fame selection, but he just throws too many bad passes in crucial situations.

    After finding a lone kindred soul, we now move to Kregg of Waterloo, Iowa -- who, according to Andrew, marches in the vanguard of many e-mailers who want to know what, exactly I have against Favre. Kregg uses some statistics to back up his contention that Favre's pick percentage is better than that of Elway and Marino and a whole bunch of QBs of older vintage.

    First of all, you can never compare current interception percentages or rating points with those of past quarterbacks because the game was different then. More down-the-field throwing, more chances taken, fewer dumpoffs, which work wonders in boosting the old rating numbers. Now let's match Favre's picks against those of Elway and Marino, whose careers most closely parallel his.

    Using the league's interception formula (percentage of interceptions out of passes thrown) Favre is at 3.23, Elway at 3.12 and Marino at 3.02. But here's the intertesting thing about those statistics. Both Elway and Marino threw more picks per attempt during the first half of their career than in the second. Young QBs tend to be more of the wild, gunslinger variety. They learn caution as they get older; they figure out how to dump the ball off and avoid throwing into coverage.

    Favre's stat line, though, shows the opposite. Under Mike Holmgren, during Brett's first seven years as a Packer, his pick percentage was lower than in his six post-Holmgren years. I don't think he's getting the same level of coaching. I think he's allowed to get away with too many sloppy habits, which are always covered up, occasionally even admired. Remember that weird toss that everyone loved, when Favre was way across the line and heading for the Vikings' end zone last year? He laughed about it, the announcers laughed about it. All it did was keep the Pack off the scoreboard.

    I guess I tend to be tough on Favre because everyone else brushes off his miscues. It's part of the hype. How about the Eagles game two years ago that knocked Green Bay out of the playoffs? One magazine did a whole piece last season on how Philly's fourth-and-26 completion, which supposedly cost Green Bay the game, caused a complete restructuring of the Packers' defense.

    What was not pointed out was that the play sent the game into overtime, and then Green Bay lost it thanks to a very bad Favre interception, on one of those looping bazooka shots of his. But this was not the prefered post-game angle.

    Wow, I've eaten up almost a full-sized column on Favre, and this is after I promised Andrew and Aimee and Jimmy and the gang down at St. Stanislaus' that I would try to keep it short this week. One-word answers from here on, folks. Except for my next missive, which, hands down, wins my E-mailer of the Week award. Maybe. Pending future developments.




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  2. CaliforniaCheez

    CaliforniaCheez Cheesehead

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    "Looping bazooka shot" that is an oxymoron.

    Z missed the point that stats do not explain. Favre is great when the the team is great but when the team is worse or a game is vital especially playoffs Brett tries even harder than his normal competitive self to succeed.

    I think Brett feels he has to make throws and get the job done. A good defense helping Brett feel comfortable just improving field position, and a good punter will let him do well.

    Also in such games getting off to a good start helps him get comfortable. If he feels good moving chains the offense looks good. If he feels he has to get a touchdown he pressures himself into risk taking. Example the Ram playoff game.

    He does need better coaching. Not X and O's or play calling but keeping him on balance psychologically during a game. A good defense would help in that department.

    It would not trade him for anybody and do not think that trying hard is much more of a virtue than fault. As weird as it sounds I think bringing in Bates will be the best thing to improve Brett's playoff performance.
     
  3. JBlood

    JBlood Cheesehead

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    Agreed, if the defense can return to the mid-90's level of play, #13 is ours. Morons are good at oxymoronic statements.
     
  4. P@ck66

    P@ck66 Banned Banned

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    that guy's an a**hole...

    what he failed to mention is that for the last few years, Favre has had to work with "rookie" receivers....Ferguson and Walker...and Walker hadn't come on until last year....Driver has been about "it"..

    Marino was throwing to Duper and Clayton for alot of years and racking up statistics...Favre has not had that caliber of receiver...nor the consistency of having the same receiving corps year after year....

    i don't remember who Elway was throwing to, but i remember they were pretty good receivers as well...

    i think alot (not all) of Favre's interception problems have been miscommunication between the QB and receiver (ie..receivers running the wrong routes--Favre stated as much about the Philly game..)...yet this is seldom mentioned when the so called "experts" talk about Favre's "interception problem"....

    really...when you look at it..Favre has not had a consistent, professionally talented receiving corps in a long time when compared to other teams...perhaps not ever, in terms of overall receiving corps....

    also, does anybody remember the last time Favre threw to a tight end or running back? i think Rossely/Sherman need to re-take "Mixing up the Game Plan 101" over again...until they get it right.
     
  5. PackerTraxx

    PackerTraxx Cheesehead

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    I don't really disagree with anything he said, but as chez also said there are reasons for Favre's mistakes. I always thought it was ludicrous during the first part MS's regime that Brett would come to the sidelines and be sitting by himself until it was time for him to go back out. How can professional people be so stupid.
    :tantrum:
     
  6. IPBprez

    IPBprez Cheesehead

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    [​IMG]
    Familiar embrace?

    Sorry guys - but I'm leaning towards KC Joyner and Dr. Z on this one.

    I admire Brett Favre to no end, seriously... But, having said that - I've always been of the mind that if he really did do as Holmgren wanted him to do, whether Mikey's there or not - and that's watch & study more film more closely - then, we most likely would be seeing a better athlete and pro football player. Like the man says, his stats are reversed as to comparison of Elway & Marino. His stats.... should & could be so much better... He most definitely has the talent and the moxey - we all know that! But without playing with your brain in gear "all the time throughout the entire game" then what happens? You miss the boat and never get the chance to grab that trophy like the Patriots have been demonstrating - as in "leading by example"... Personally, I don't care all that much for the Wonderlic score test - but ya gotta admit, Belicheck's Team does have the highest wonderlic scores and they also, my friends, have three, count 'em, three SuperBowl Trophies in the last five years. Seriously, with Brett's talent level always being there, and it has been.... That should really and truly be the Green Bay Packers making a grand statement that Lombardi is "home to stay" and that really would be what all of us could be saying right now had the focus level been where it should be....

    First & foremost - I am a Packers Acolyte and not just a Favre Acolyte.
    Therein lies the difference - How many times have you heard people say "Miami Dolphins? Oh yea, they're a good team, but really I like Dan Marino more!" People that's a very sad statement for a Team to be remembered by these days... as in, only by a retired "superbowl winless" Quarterback with bad knees! Think Joe Namath right about now! Very rarely do I ever hear anyone mention the Miami Dolphins "undefeated season" ...and of course, when they do - I remind them that during the pre-season that year - they were stomped on by the Green Bay Packers! ! ! ! !

    Since Brett has been with that Personal Trainer now, for practically the entire off-season --- I would hope that now... would be his time to regain that attention to fundamentals - that intent on keeping his INT factor the lowest of any QB in the entire league - because I can tell ya this - the INT factor of the Star QB of any team is also in relation (one-to-one IMHO) with the strength of the Defense throughout the whole Season... AND... to them making or missing the Playoffs as well as THE SUPERBOWL!

    Think about it - I sure hope Brett Favre is doing exactly that "right now".
     
  7. musccy

    musccy Cheesehead

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    Nail on the head with those 2 points. The ESPN crew is a classic example of this...his miscues are almost perceived as being "cute" at times.

    Like Prez said, though, I like Favre a lot, of course he's one of the big reasons for their successful runs, etc. however, if you're a fan of the PACKERS first and foremost, then his mistakes should be taken much more seriously. If he has a 5 pick game is he going to get the Ahmad Carroll treatment? Obviously not, but why shouldn't he? Yes, you earn respect over time, and him as much as anyone, but you are still a member of the team and need to be held accountable just as anyone else. The coaches and fans tend to forget this.
     
  8. P@ck66

    P@ck66 Banned Banned

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    sorry IB,

    but to lay it all on Favre's shoulders is missing the boat....

    As was mentioned, defense must be in the picture, a good receiving corps, and yes..what else? COACHING!

    these things too, have been lacking....
     
  9. IPBprez

    IPBprez Cheesehead

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    Favre has had others out there.. it wasn't like he didn't have anyone at all - remember 2001?

    I'll give ya this one - but then again, those guys also had the ability to run the wrong routes and drop passes, too - go back and look..

    I just don't see it that way - In the end, with that 1998 Superbowl, which was Elway's first... well, it SHOULD have been our game - Holmgren forced Brett into a bad situation by keeping our Star Running Back "Dorsey Levens" out of almost the entire second half... I think there were (like) 5 running plays for the 2nd half, if that - someone said only three... but I'd have to go look again.... Just the same, the Packers were murdering the Broncos all game in the first half - and fellas? Gilbert Brown was already tired by the 2nd quarter - so that wasn't it. We were hanging in there and without Levens keeping the ball on the ground on Offense and running the clock out - you know the drill... then Brett had to force his passes, etc. What was Holmgren thinking? Did he do it on purpose because of his anger over the GM/HC roll? One wonders....

    I've said something similar to this ever since it happened - but after further review - why didn't Favre just fall down on the ball? Answer me that....

    Is this the WR's Coach that might have been the problem all along? This is a real question!

    Here... is where you and I walk together into the thick of it... I blame Rossley totally. And then I blame Sherman for not being more attentive to the need - blind trust of the OC is always gonna end up causing trouble... First Sherman should have been more attentive to Favre sitting on the bench - not treating him like it would cause him (Sherman) some type of social embarrassment if he went over to discuss the game - you know, 'being seen hanging around with the guy' - "while the game was going on"... and then He Could Have.. reviewed past historically great games of the Nineties and imitated them... brought back a few things - even if they're aren't exactly "in" among other NFL Teams around the League - why not be different?

    P@ck66 - Not really trying to single you out - that's not my point...
    But you've brought alot to the table on this discussion and I just had to relate how I felt about all of what you've said. Heck, in Holmgren's final year - if not for the Referee gift to the Niner's - He would have had one more go at the crown jewel... right? It's certainly one thing that even he will never know....

    AND NO - I'm not laying all of this all on Favre's shoulders.... let's be clear about that!
     
  10. P@ck66

    P@ck66 Banned Banned

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    i seem to remember Favre saying that with the with the defense that Philadelphia gave the Packers in that game, the receiver (Ferguson?..i think it was him) was supposed to run a slant and go for a jump ball in that general area, and he broke off the route....

    if you remember, there wasn't much time because it was a blitz. If Ferguson would have been in that area, he may very well have made the reception....or at least..knocked it away...

    so much of this game is based on reads and timing...and all players being on the same page.....

    that is why this pass looked so bad...
     
  11. packedhouse01

    packedhouse01 Cheesehead

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    Other than Sterling Sharp, Brett has never had a truly great receiver to throw to. He has been playing most of his career with a hodgepodge of receivers, some who run the wrong routes, some who can't catch the ball and tip it to the defenders and some who just aren't professional caliber recievers. Now compare Favres receivers to those of Elway, Montana, Marino, Manning, or many of the other great quarterbacks and you will get a much truer picture of how good Brett Favre is. He also worked better under a more disciplined coach and offensive coordinator. There are a lot of stats that can go into this equation, but the bottom line is Brett is still one of the best.
     
  12. IPBprez

    IPBprez Cheesehead

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    That pass - in 2003 / Eagles / Playoff game... was practically straight up in the air... and wasn't it Walker who was in the area? I'll go back and review.. Just the same - and rightly so.. Rossley was who called that STUPID play and has also taken credit for it being wrong - it doesn't change anything - that's why I don't actually forgive the guy....

    Just the same, with that blitz package, having waited all game to pull it off - as Sherman was keeping them from having an opportunity to actually use it... Well, I still say, as with other games,.... Brett could have simply fallen on the ball - it wasn't a 4th down play - it was third down... I'm gonna have to find someone around here who has that one on tape... and bring some of it here to the table for further review... THAT GAME - still gets my anger flarin up... To me, 2003 was our SuperBowl year... hands down! Thanks alot, Rossley!
     
  13. IPBprez

    IPBprez Cheesehead

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    Interesting add-on....

    http://www.packers.com/gameday/2004/01-11/

    Comments?
     
  14. IPBprez

    IPBprez Cheesehead

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    I take it back - that first possession iin Overtime on this game - Brett simply threw the ball too hard in an effort to get rid of it - he just wasn't focused on the possibility of the blitz package having that much success... He HURLED it downfield waaaay past where Javon Walker was trying to get to.. falling down on the ball certainly never occurred to him. It was Javon's pass to catch and to be fair, had it worked, it would have sealed the game and everything would have been over.

    You can watch the replay here....

    http://www.packers.com/multimedia/video/2003_game_video/
     
  15. P@ck66

    P@ck66 Banned Banned

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    IB,

    Brett already admitted that it wasn't the best pass/decision...but when you make a read based on a blitz package...sometimes a split second is all you have....if i recall the eagle defender was on top of Favre in a millisecond...he threw the ball..the defender hit brett's arm...and he didn't have good footing..and he threw it in the air...if Walker didn't break off his route...or if he would have made the correct read...perhaps he could have AT LEAST..broken the play up....

    i wouldn't blame Brett Favre for losing this game though.....

    this game was lost much earlier.....

    I would be more upset with the bone-headed coaching decisions made by the two headed monster Sherman/Rosseley (man, they seem to freeze up in big games, don't they?) for going for a TD on 4th and 2 before halftime..and not getting it....and NOT going for a first down on 4th and 1 in the 4th quarter...when the Packers were pounding the Eagles with the running game (had them tired and on their heels)..around the 42 yard line..OF THE EAGLES..and decided to PUNT!....

    not to mention...4th and 26....(which i heard Donatell say that he had a blitz called for that play, but Sherman changed it.)
     
  16. musccy

    musccy Cheesehead

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    Nothing personal, but few arguments get under my skin quite like this one. Do ppl really believe that ONLY the green bay packers receivers run the wrong routes or drop passes? Do people really believe that Clayton and Duper were THAT much better than Sharpe, Freeman, Driver, Brooks, Walker, etc.? Look at their stats http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/ClayMa00.htm

    You can look up any player you want in the upper left link. The Favre and crappy receiver argument stands on subjective legs at best. Think that Favre has been playing with garbage?!? Watch the Raiders MNF game again, the day after his father died.
     
  17. musccy

    musccy Cheesehead

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    Also, this 4-26, coaches blew it is absolute balogana! I don't care if you call the "throw up the white flag and play dead" play, the players should be fully capable of stopping a 4-26. Besides, I don't think you can blame anything in a game on one player, one coach, one play, one whatever because there were myriad other instances before that which could have altered the game.

    For example, later on the infamous 4-26 drive, few people remember the interception that McKenzie dropped in the endzone that would have iced the game. That is not Donatell's, Sherman's, Favre's, or Walker's fault.
     
  18. P@ck66

    P@ck66 Banned Banned

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    musscy,

    i just think that a blitz would have been the RIGHT call to make, to put the GB Packers in a position to win....that falls to the coach.
     
  19. musccy

    musccy Cheesehead

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    after re-reading my post, I realize it came out a little more rough-edged than I wanted it to, but again, my point being that the blame should have been distributed throughout the team...a lot of people messed up that game.

    As for the 4-26, you know they HAVE to throw at least 20 yards deep, so why wouldn't you want to put your players where the ball soon will be? But, lets say you call a blitz...it still comes down to the players executing, and what if the blitzer gets picked up, or McNabb schucks him? Sherman looks REALLY stupid then when there you have more in the backfield than in the secondary.

    The players are payed big time bucks to stop 3rd and 3s, let alone 4th and 26s...again, I guess I just can't be convinced that the responsibility for that particular play doesn't lie on the players. I can see an argument for the 4th and 1s that were mentioned, although I still wouldn't blame the loss on those plays/calls.
     
  20. JBlood

    JBlood Cheesehead

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    Well boys, I'm amazed at the criticism of a QB who will retire with virtually every major passing record of note in the NFL. He has certainly made mistakes in big games, but how many big games did Marino get to?? Brett isn't the reason we haven't won another Championship--it's the pathetic defense that we've played since Fritz left. Guys like Dr. Z like to lay it all on Brett, as if a truly great QB would overcome every weakness of a team. Ask Marino if that's true. Ask Tarkenton. Ask Manning. Ask Culpepper. You don't win without being able to stop the other team. Brett is the greatest QB, and probably the greatest player of all time, that the Packers have had. His consecutive start record will NEVER be broken by another QB. I've enjoyed watching him to this point, and hope he has another healthy 3 or 4 years in him.

    [​IMG]
     
  21. Obi1

    Obi1 Cheesehead

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    THAT is why YOU are just a FAN and NOT the coach. I agree with YOU. That is why I'm just a fan...
     
  22. musccy

    musccy Cheesehead

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    In response to JBlood, for me, personally, it's not that I don't respect Favre or realize his value to the team, etc. but more of what the original post was getting at, that Favre (at least seemingly) isn't held accountable for his mistakes like other players are. They were right...Favre and the ESPN guys were having a great time w/ his blunder vs. the Vikings, but if anybody else pulls that stunt?

    Like Dr. Z said, it's never Favre's fault, heck, a previous poster wrote an entire paragraph on how the OT throw vs. the Eagles wasn't his fault! Rather, blame the turf, the defense, the wr, but, for example with the wr, are you taking into consideration that maybe he was held up on a timing route, or slipped, maybe Favre's throw was off target or he even threw for the wrong route? No, it's always someone else's fault.

    So why am I dwelling on this? Because nobody stops him and corrects him just because he's THE Brett Favre.

    My main criticism of Sherman and co. is that they don't put him in his place like Holmgren used to. It didn't matter if Brett, or Anthony Dilweg screwed up...Holmgren was going to bark at you and do what he could to make sure you didn't do that again. That doesn't happen anymore, and if nobody holds him accountable (not that me whinning on a message board does anything) then how are things going to change/improve?
     
  23. P@ck66

    P@ck66 Banned Banned

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    musscy,

    i'm going to explain this real slow, so you all understand....

    nobody said, "it wasn't Favre's fault"..or that Favre "never makes mistakes"..he does..just like everybody else does...from time to time...Favre will make a mistake...he's human.

    But I believe Favre would make less mistakes if he had better talent around him. Especially at wide receiver. But when you don't have a Terrell Owens or a Marvin Harrison, a Jerry Rice, or whoever....what Favre does year in and year out becomes more remarkable...

    Favre can hit his receivers when they get open...but when they don't..or if they run the wrong route...what is he going to do...eat the ball everytime..or try to make something happen? Think about how many games Favre has won for the Pack by sticking the ball on a covered receiver where no other QB could or would dare to throw the ball--many times it's the difference between winning and losing. yeah...there's going to be some bad bounces at times...but I'd rather have #4 pulling the trigger, because more often than not, he's going to make something good happen. Something that another QB in the nfl can't even do.

    The huge difference between Holmgren and Rossley/Sherman is that Holmgren knows how to mix up plays to keep the defense of balance, and Rossley/Sherman are just mixed up.

    You're only as good as the players around you, and unfortunately Favre has not had the luxury of having a great receiving corps like Marino, Montana, Elway, and Manning. So think about that, and be grateful that Favre has kept the Pack in the playoff hunt, in spite of inept coaching and less than stellar talent surrounding him.
     
  24. P@ck66

    P@ck66 Banned Banned

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    Also, musscy..et. al..

    A couple of years ago, I couldn't believe that Sherman drafted 2 rookie wide-receivers and expected Favre to play with them, and develop them at this stage in his career. It was Ron Wolfe's big regret that he didn't give Favre the talent at receiver, and Sherman year's later was expecting him to play with 2 ROOKIES!

    I couldn't believe it....no one had the good sense to go out and get some talent around Brett Favre...basically wasting his remaining years while these rookies developed!
     
  25. packman31

    packman31 Cheesehead

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    Dr Z forgot to mention that the packers gave up 4 and 26 in that Eagles game, and that the packers didn't go for a 1st with 4 and inches or that they did not take the fieldgoal at the end of half. All he says is Favre made a bad decision in overtime.
     

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