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Don't expect the Packers to spend their first round pick on a cornerback

Discussion in 'Draft Talk' started by JLW_51, Apr 6, 2017.

What position will the Packers first round pick play?

  1. Cornerback

    7 vote(s)
    20.6%
  2. Outside Linebacker

    21 vote(s)
    61.8%
  3. Guard

    2 vote(s)
    5.9%
  4. Running back

    4 vote(s)
    11.8%
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  1. JLW_51

    JLW_51 Cheesehead

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  2. Poppa San

    Poppa San Levelheaded Staff Member Super Moderator Moderator

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    I agree with the article. TT won't draft a guard in the first. Most likely not a RB either. That's if his history holds. Leaves pass rushers. He also tends towards early entries so I'd watch those players.
     
  3. Half Empty

    Half Empty Cheesehead

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    Guess we can shut down the Richard Herman thread, then. :)
     
  4. XPack

    XPack Cheesehead

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    Knowing TT we'll get probably get a TE. :confused:
     
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  5. 502 to Right

    502 to Right Cheesehead

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    The article's assertion that Ted won't take a CB in the first is poorly argued. The assertion is that Ted does not give up on his draft picks and taking a CB in the first would be giving up on Randall and Rollins. The only example given is the pick of LB Carl Bradford in 2014 in the 4th round--who stuck with the team for three years despite not being very good. However, Ted drafted Jake Ryan in 2015, and Kyler Fackrell and Blake Martinez in 2016. Clearly having drafted Bradford did not prevent Ted from drafting 3 LB's in the first 4 rounds in the next two drafts. So the article's premise does not make sense.

    I fully expect Ted to go Edge/CB or CB/Edge in the 1st and 2nd rounds. Just as in baseball where you can't have too many good starting pitchers, in the current NFL you can't have too many good CB's. Drafting a CB in the 1st or 2nd does not waste the Randall/Rollins picks. Everyone will play plenty of snaps.
     
    Last edited: Apr 7, 2017
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  6. brandon2348

    brandon2348 GO PACK GO!

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    What if he doesn't? Will you have issue to his philosophy then?

    When will enough be enough with this guy?
     
  7. 502 to Right

    502 to Right Cheesehead

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    Whether he does or doesn't, I still know that Ted Thompson is better at building a roster than me or anyone else on this board.
     
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  8. brandon2348

    brandon2348 GO PACK GO!

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    Unfortunately with the plethora of information and resources at his disposal I'm not so sure about that.

    I've seen a lot of stuff here that makes way more sense then what TT does which is usually nothing in regards to filling immediate holes. I think he is a good scout or evaluator of talent but his stubbornness is killing a potential dynasty.
     
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  9. OldSchool101

    OldSchool101 Pack

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    I think he'll go after the best available player between OLB or CB first but leaning pass rusher first. We need to replace what we lost with Datone and Julius. The CB class is deep and talented at that second tier so I think good Corners will still be there rounds 2-4.
     
  10. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    It's unlikely a week 1 starter capable of covering top receivers is available in the second, third or fourth round though.
     
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  11. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    Here are some considerations other than CB for the top 3 picks, taking a 2 year view in the draft/develop/system acclimation/cap/2018 FA equation (a pretty complicated equation, right?).

    The best case for a #1 pick at CB is if the Packers decide to make the plausible (if unlikely) move of Randall to FS where he belongs. See my comments on the safety position below, particularly with regard to McCarthy's stated plan to play Burnett more at ILB.

    Otherwise, the author's channeling of the mind of Thompson is a little hard to argue. He does stick with his high picks past the point of pain when injury impairments are factored in. Randall and Rollins would qualify on that score. Also see Perry and Adams as recent examples. I highlight "injury impairments" for a reason; sticking with upper round picks past the point of pain is not some universal Thompson principle. Worthy, a #2 pick, was marginalized in year 2 and then gone. Thornton, a third rounder, was IRed with a hammy out of preseason in what looked like a red shirt move, then gone in final cuts the following year.

    I can't say I agree with the thinking as it applies to the perimeter corner position as currently constituted, but there is a pattern of Thompson behavior to be observed.

    RB:

    The need is obvious and does not require much comment. Montgomery is not a 15-20 carry guy; you like him best motioning to the slot or catching out of the backfield. Once defenses adjusted focus, his limitations emerged. While spending a 1st. rounder on that position is implausible, 2nd. round, and certainly by the 3rd. round, should be a strong consideration.

    S:

    McCarthy has stated he wants to use Burnett more at ILB, presumably to bring more coverage speed to the position. The fact Burnett is the best all-around player and most football-smart in the back 7, it also gives him more play making opportunities. This plan largely depends on Brice's development, a guy with a flash here and there but a lot of cluelessness as well last season.

    Taking a 2 year view, both starting safeties are free agents after 2017. As evidenced in this off season, it's not just a matter of prioritizing who you want to keep; it's also a matter of what Thompson has designated as his max price. Clinton-Dix got a Pro Bowl nod on the strength of iffy QBs airmailing several balls into his breadbasket. He's decent, but really not that level of player. He could be priced out of the equation by somebody who's got safety as a high priority.

    From the day Randall was drafted my view has been he belongs at FS. My comment at the time went something along the lines of, "What? They're going to move Dix to the perimeter?" Well, Randall-to-safety does not appear to be on the radar even if it should be. Maybe that changes in 2018.

    Don't be shocked if there is a safety in the top three picks.

    OLB:

    While Matthews/Perry is set, these guys are injury prone and there's nobody behind them you'd want to see taking 40 or 50 snaps per game. Matthews is not getting any younger; his cap number for 2018 is $11.4 mil while his dead cap drops to zero. If Matthews goes through yet another season where he's out or physically impaired for half the games, a decision will need to be made.

    Depth, injury history, age are all factors at this high value position.

    At the same time, except for the elite draft prospects out of reach at the Packers #1 draft position, you're not likely to find an immediate 3-down player. These guys, drafted first and foremost for athleticism and pass rush ability, typically rotate to pass rush as rookies and build toward a 3-down skill set.

    There's an argument here to go first or second round.

    WR:

    Not slot, wideout. Though surprising, don't be shocked if there's a WR is in the top 2 picks if they have a guy on the board with a higher grade falling to that slot. 3rd. round earns a higher probability

    Why? In short, the 2 year outlook at the position is sketchy and we know that getting into the Rodgers mind meld is at least a 2 year project. Here's the long story:

    This offense is first and foremost a wideout centric passing game. You see what happens when Nelson is out of the lineup or when he's sluggish, limping around and dropping balls as in the early games last season. He's not getting any younger. While his long speed started to recover as the season went along, in the final analysis he's lost a step in his 5th. gear. In year 2 after an ACL we could see a return to "nobody catches him from behind", but at age 32 I would not count on it. In 2018 there's a $12.6 cap number against $2.3 mil dead cap.

    Adams is a #2 possession-type receiver. That's not a bad thing, though not optimal if you find yourself missing the #1. He's awfully handy when the Packers go into their highly effective short-pass ball control offense, but they inexplicably abandon it at the first opportunity. Adams is super quick out of his breaks; it shows up most in his money catches on the short slant, but he's pretty ordinary on the downfield ball. He also happens to be a FA after this season.

    Cobb has under-performed his contract. Yes, injuries have played a big factor. But when the offense has a couple of good-better-best wideouts (a James Jones redux does not qualify, Nelson and Adams do) and a pass catching TE (the preferred combination), his opportunities are more limited and the position is marginalized. Signing Bennett to a 3 year deal might be telling us something. For 2018, Cobb's cap hit is $12.8 mil, dead cap $3.3 mil, 9 7 years of high contact mileage, with his replacement on the roster in Montgomery for the preferred offense where the slot is the 3rd. or 4th. option.

    OG/C:

    McCarthy has stated he sees Spriggs as an OT and does not contemplate moving Bulaga to OG.

    With 4 positions set on the OL with decent or better players, it would not be a radical thought to go with Barclay at OG. While Barclay might be no better than serviceable, OL is an ensemble effort more than any other position group where one weaker link might be tolerated. I wouldn't recommend it at OT, but the interior line is another matter.

    With Barclay at OG, there's still a missing piece in the interior bench. Barclay would be the presumptive backup at C, but that still leaves the OG back up spot as a vulnerability. Can they count on one of these PS-and-Arena-League guys (Flores, McCray, Lucas) to emerge? Anything's possible, but the default assumption is they are camp bodies who would need to surprise.

    That leaves a move of Murphy to OG. He doesn't look quick enough for OT, so that's a possibility, though it's still even questionable whether he's a bona fide NFL player.

    Perhaps the bigger issue is Linsley and Taylor both being FAs after 2017. So, that together with needed depth would argue for an OL pick. But in the first 3 picks? I'd say unlikely. Thompson hasn't drafted an interior OL above the 4th. round. since Colledge in 2006. And with 4 of 5 positions set, I see it as more likely he goes for a numbers game: a pick or two from the 4th. round down and a few UDFAs to go with the PS/Arena guys noted above hoping to get one or two out of the bunch. I'd expect they will try to extend either Taylor or Linsley or both before the year is out.
     
    Last edited: Apr 7, 2017
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  12. sschind

    sschind Cheesehead

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    Depends on who is available and who he drafts. I don't want him to draft a CB just because we need one. I want him to draft a CB if he is one of the best players available, and is comparable to other players who may be available at other positions we need help with.

    For the most part I agree. While fans may pick one or two players that may turn out to be better I doubt anyone could do a full scale job of building an NFL roster better than Ted, or most other GMs. Anyone can pick their star in the draft and if he works out and another player doesn't they will say I can do a better job than he does but its just one player. Lots of fans will say "I really wanted them to draft Tom Brady" but you hardly ever hear fans admitting "I really wanted them to draft Ryan Leaf"

    You've already said numerous times that you doubt a week 1 starter capable of covering top receivers will be available at #29 either so what's the difference if he waits.


    That's a pretty good analysis HRE and it why I would never say Ted is locked in on any one position or he has to take a player in any particular position. We are not a team with a single need that can afford to pass up a better player at one position just to take an inferior player at a position of greater need. Especially since an improvement in that other area can indirectly help that position of greater need as well.


    As far as the article goes I think Jim should stick to making concrete blocks.
     
  13. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    Very solid analysis. Two things I want to mention that the Packers could pick up the fifth year option for Clinton-Dix this offseason as well as this being only Cobb's seventh season in the league.

    There's no doubt that it's more likely to select an impact player in the first round than later in the draft.
     
  14. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    Sure.

    I think most fans have thrown in the towel on the obsolete notion that Thompson picks the best player available. I don't think those words have even come out of his mouth in years, and there is not much evidence of those kinds of picks in going on a decade.

    Spriggs is the closest thing to a "luxury pick" in the upper rounds in recent years, though when you consider the OT bench at the time, Bakhtiari entering his contract year, Bulaga's knees always a concern, and the criticality of the position, "luxury" may be a stretch.

    What we do see is Thompson drafting the "best player available" at one of the positions of need in the upper rounds. There are certainly a few of those positions as illustrated above especially when taking the 2 year view. Fackrell in the third round is an example of a two-year-view pick.

    Safety is a comparable position this season to OLB last year. Hyde is gone, Dix and Burnett are in contract years, Burnett is purportedly playing more ILB this season (Brice's play or that of a rookie) and maybe again in 2018 if they resign him, Brice unproven as starter material, and really no strong candidate to even fill a #4 safety spot.

    That said, it depends on the relative grades of the players at the different positions of need at the time of a particular pick. That's why it's a bit of a fools errand to identify a particular position targeted for at a particular draft spot, or at least not until a reliable reporter leaks a plausible bit of inside intel. ;)
     
    Last edited: Apr 7, 2017
  15. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    Yeah, the Cobb "9 year" thing was a brain fart. It only seems like he's been getting beat up for 8 years so far. ;) I would not change my overall sketch of the situation, though.

    I don't know the deadline to exercise the option on Dix. Early May as last year I would suppose; certainly after the draft. I'm sure you'll tell me the exact date. ;) Whether they do or they don't may depend more on what they can get in the draft rather than the other way around. While safety is one the cheapest positions in the game, with the option being in the $6 mil vicinity (you probably know the exact figure as well ;) ), it's not a the optimal solution. You piss off the player and end up repeating the process in the following season.

    Immediate impact at #29 is an awful hard get. You're hoping for a decent number of snaps and some solid play as a rookie then a step up in year 2.

    That certainly brings OLB into the conversation.

    But I'd add the following: safeties are not valued very highly in the draft, nor in free agency with a few All Pro exceptions. A safety pick in the first 2 rounds might get you an immediate starter and add impact at the ILB position with the Burnett move. I gotta say, he was outstanding playing in the box last season.

    And when you step back from the granular position analysis, what is the need from 30,000 feet? Better speed. A free safety with top closing speed (Randall, alas) would be a big plus at 2 positions with Randall at ILB. Or speed at the WR position (an annual interest) for depth and the future. There's a big falloff on the perimeter after Nelson and Adams.

    And while RB is an acute need, I don't see speed as the priority. You want to recreate Lacy.

    Do I expect a safety or WR pick in the first 3 rounds? Not exactly. But I sure would not be shocked. It opens the conversation beyond the pat "I want a CB!" mantra to other possibilities where there is a need an perhaps better value when a pick comes around.
     
    Last edited: Apr 7, 2017
  16. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    The deadline to pick up the fifth year option is May 3. If I have calculated correctly the Packers would have to pay Clinton-Dix approximately $6.2 million in 2018 if they decide to go that way.

    Absolutely agreed that I don't expect to draft an immediate impact player at #29.

    BTW I want a CB!!! ;)
     
  17. Dantés

    Dantés Gute Loot

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    One thing to consider is that you really "start" three corners in today's NFL. He could draft one at #29 without giving up on Randall or Rollins in any way. But my first round cluster of guys I think TT will covet and who I like includes edge rushers and an offensive linemen. Unless someone unexpectedly falls, I'd say it's between CB, OLB, and OL.
     
  18. Patriotplayer90

    Patriotplayer90 Cheesehead

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    I hope he drafts BPA for once, which given the depth, would be a CB in this draft.
     
  19. Poppa San

    Poppa San Levelheaded Staff Member Super Moderator Moderator

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    Every GM is allowed one BPA in his career. TT spent his on his first ever pick.
     
  20. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    I highly doubt Thompson uses the 29th pick on an offensive lineman as the Packers are settled at tackle and TT rightfully doesn't value guard enough to select a player at the position in the first round.
     
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  21. sschind

    sschind Cheesehead

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    So you know who will be available at #29. You must since you know it will be a CB.
     
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  22. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    That's to the point. There are sufficient positions of need to consider. Also there is a question as to what kind of CB might be selected.

    When you consider a guy like Burnett, who played nickel ILB to good affect in limited snaps last year with McCarthy talking about upping those snaps this year, and when you consider this move is in tune with the league trend toward hybrid ILBs, there is not a lot to differentiate SS, nickel corner and coverage ILB: 4.5ish speed to run with the ever speedier TEs and RBs while being physical enough to take on those guys and in run support.

    There seems to be a fairly good collection of safety/nickel corner types in this draft who could serve at traditional safety when Burnett moves up, while also capable of playing nickel corner when he doesn't. A Hyde replacement, in other words. Burnett and Dix also happen to be free agents after this season.
     
  23. Reggie White Cheese

    Reggie White Cheese Cheesehead

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    I would not mind taking Corey Davis out of WMU to replace Adams if he leaves we could slide Allison to slot when Cobb leaves although might get fans riled up for 1st round pick and he might not be there very intriguing look in my book. Or I am crazy. Ha.
     
  24. Patriotplayer90

    Patriotplayer90 Cheesehead

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    Keep dreaming. He's going much earlier in a relatively weak WR class. Would love to see him come to GB though, and he could be an eventual WR1 replacement for Nelson, if he ever actually declines.
     
  25. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    Allison is not a slot receiver. He would not survive the punishment. It is unclear if he's any kind of front line receiver.
     
    Last edited: Apr 10, 2017
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