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Don's Crystal Board Week 4 Pick's

Discussion in 'All Other Team Discussions' started by DonCanabis, Sep 25, 2008.

  1. DonCanabis

    DonCanabis Cheesehead

    Sep 20, 2008
    Crystal Ball

    By DonCanabis/D'BOYZAnalyst/Godfather

    Hey last week I posted my column on some new team boards.I really did not do a proper introduction of my self. I decided I would like to do that this week. As you noticed...I'm The Don, "The Godfather" of predictions. I've been betting on football for the past 12 years. I have been posting Columns for 4 years now. I'm a football enthusiast that loves the sport. I am constantly trying to learn every thing I can about the game and what happens each week around the NFL. I love to bet on sports but,I hate to gamble. I study a lot about the teams, injuries, tendencies etc...to try to lower the chance of making a bad pick. I watch at least 12 games per week to learn more about the teams. This allows me to really pay attention to the small details on every team each week. I do this because I love it and it is my Passion. I decided that since I put so much study and work into my preparation each week that I wanted to share it with other Football Bloggers. My hope is that it will help you in some way make more focused picks each week.
    I have a 68% career record against the spread so far this year. I'm a little down. I'm 64% but if you read my column last week and followed my picks you probably cashed in big time. last week I had a 11-5 record against the spread. It would have been better but Denver decided to fumble on the 3 yard line in the final minutes. It happens. Just remember I call it as I see it. Please don't take it as a personal attack if I chose a team to lose that you don't agree with. You may at times not agree with my opinions but please remember my soul purpose is to try to help you and I make money.
    So if you have some questions or comments about the picks or anything football related feel free to ask me. I will try to answer them in the best way possible.I will also do my best to get you your answer as quickly as I can.
    GL this week guys...now let's get on with the picks.

    Atlanta at Carolina -7 Ovr/Und 39
    Carolina finally got Steve Smith Back. Right now they really have a good running game going. They have a problem with their Offensive line. They cannot seem to cover well for Jake Delhomme. They faced 3 great defenses and came away with a 2-1 record. That is pretty good. Ryan has shown the ability so far to be able to beat the bad teams he has faced. His next big challenge is to prove that he can do the same against good teams. I personally don't think he is ready yet. Expect some big play from Abraham against this Oline. Don't expect Turner to be such a great factor...Carolina has faced Peterson, L.T and Forte and held them in check for less than a 100 yards rushing.
    Straight: Car
    Spread: Car
    Ovr/Und: Ovr

    Denver at Kansas City 9 Ovr/Und 46.5
    Denver has shown they can score against any defense. It does not matter whether they are good or bad. As good as their Offense is it is their Defense that is cause for concern. Their Defense gives up way to many points. Kansas City has become last years Miami Dolphins and Oakland raiders. Any decent players in KC want out. Even Gonzalez wants out. Can you blame him? This team is a Joke.
    Straight: Den
    Spread: Den
    Ovr/Und: Ovr

    San Francisco at New Orleans -6 Ovr/Und 48.5
    The media seems to be falling in love with J.T all of the sudden.I don't buy into it yet. The 2 teams he has beat are not very good at all. Sorry Seattle fans but your team sucks. New Orleans has lost the past two games in the final minutes. They do have a lot of injuries to deal with right now but this is a must win for them. If they lose here it will be really hard to stay in the playoff race IMO.Their Key players in the passing game are out. Reggie Bush could not have stepped it up any better. They need him now and he seems to be responding. They are finally seeing what they had hoped they would see out of him when they drafted him. So take the home team and the points. NO is 3-0 in the Ovr/und.
    Straight: NO
    Spread: NO
    Ovr/Und: Over

    Arizona at New York Jets -2.5 Ovr/Und 45
    Tough loss against SD on MN for Favre. He seems to be finally showing some more chemistry with his teammates. I knew the first few games where going to be tough. Now I see him starting to bounce back to his old form. Warner made an impact on me last week.It has been a long time since I have seen any emotions out of him...especially frustration about losing. He seemed to be stuck in a rut for a few years. It was as if his fire for the game had gone out. A perfect example was last year when he broke his elbow. He did not quit and it opened his teammates eyes. They are really starting to rally around him. Which breeds a winning attitude. Regardless of this...I just do not think Farve is going to lose 2 at home. He does have a hurt ankle but Favre is not going to let that get in his way.
    Straight: NYJ
    Spread: NYJ
    Ovr/Und: Und

    Minnesota at Tennessee -3 Ovr/Und 36
    Ferrotte was a very good move. You will see 2 of the best Defenses square up against each other in this game. The big question will be which old timer will end up playing better than the other? If Collins and Ferrotte get knocked around who will respond the best? My money tells me to go with Ferrotte on this one. So take the upset.
    Straight: Min
    Spread: Min
    Ovr/Und: Und

    Green Bay at Tampa Bay -1.5 Ovr/Und 43
    Mr. Rodgers got a wake up call last week after getting his head filled with air by the media for 2 weeks in a row. He faces yet another good Defense in Tampa Bay. Tampa will watch the game tape on how Dallas tore them apart and do the same. Now we will get to see just how good Rodgers really is. Can he make the proper adjustments? Time will tell.
    Straight: GB
    Spread: GB
    Ovr/Und: Ovr

    Houston at Jacksonville -7.5 Ovr/Und 41.5
    Jacksonville finally showed their running game last week like I expected. Now that the light has gone off with this team expect them to get back on a roll like they were last year. Houston has shown nothing besides a good pass rush. I think that is all the have. I don't expect any more out of them this week.
    Straight: Jax
    Spread: Jax
    Ovr/Und: Under

    Cleveland at Cincinnati -3.5 Ovr/Und 44.5
    Palmer can still throw wow! It wasn't enough to beat the defending champs last week but good enough to wake up the team. I hope by now that they have seen the season is not over yet. I predict that they will show up this week against their hated rivals the Browns. The Browns are defeated and playing like it. This should be Andersons last week at the helm. Next week in come Brady Quinn. You heard it here first.
    Straight: Cin
    Spread: Cin
    Ovr/Und: Ovr

    San Diego at Oakland 7.5 Ovr/Und 45
    SD needs this win. Oakland needs a new owner. Reason #1 Kiffin is still the Raiders coach?. Anyone? No? No one wants to be the Head Coach for the Raiders Nation. There is not a worse scenario for a Head Coach to be in then taking the Raiders job. Heck they even make the Rams, Lions and Chiefs Job look respectable. What is really sad is they do have some really good star players on that team. Their Defense is good. They have a very respectable running game. An average QB right now. Their QB is going to be their biggest weakness this week. They will not be able to keep up with San Diego's Offense.
    Straight: SD
    Spread: SD
    Ovr/Und: Ovr

    Buffalo at St. Louis 8 Ovr/Und 45.5
    Can St. Louis put up fight? Is 8 points enough? I don't think so.I can't believe they actually think putting Green at QB with the 100+ concussions he has had against this defense is a smart idea. The game will be over by half time. Forget the Doctor's and CPR. This team is dead already.
    Straight: Buf
    Spread: Buf
    Ovr/Und: Over

    Washington at Dallas -11 Ovr/Und 46
    Dallas has won twice scoring in the double digits this year. Why am I having so much trouble with this spread?It is simple. It is called the hated rivalry between these 2 teams.These 2 teams have had a lot of close ones in the last few years no matter how good each other is. Dallas' problem has been trying to find a way to stop Cooley. Is Zach Thomas finally the answer? The reality is that Dallas has the weapons to cover the spread. The problem is these 2 teams seem to beat each other up. I expect this to be another close one.
    Straight: Dal
    Ovr/Und: OVR

    Philadelphia at Chicago 3 Ovr/Und 41.5
    I like Philadelphia's defense a lot. What I don't like is Westbrook and McNabb being hurt. That makes it hard once again for this team to have to face yet another great Defense. This should be a classic Defensive Match-up. If you are not sure who to take in this game...then take the under and be safe. I expect Chicago to be in McNabbs face all game. This will give a big test to how healthy McNabb really is.
    Straight: Chi
    Spread: Chi
    Ovr/Und: Und

    Baltimore at Pittsburgh -7 Ovr/Und 37
    This line is way to high with no Parker in the game. Big Ben seems to be really hurt. Their Offensive line looks like Swiss cheese. They will line up against the second best defense in the NFL. Sorry Steeler fans but this game is a giveaway. This is a great team when all are healthy. Right nowthey are not.
    Straight: Bal
    Spread: Bal

    Hot Picks
    Record 10-8
    Green Bay (league)
    Baltimore (league)
    Washington (league)
    San Diego
    New Orleans

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