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Defensive drafts blow cold on GB.
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<blockquote data-quote="El Guapo" data-source="post: 538760" data-attributes="member: 5830"><p>First of all, I love your analysis. I think that your points about where Ted Thompson is drafting from is insightful and overall the defensive analysis is well done. It certainly has been the weakpoint of his strategy. That said, all GMs have weak points. It was definitely noticeable that all of the teams playing this weekend had good defenses, quite a contrast to the Packers.</p><p></p><p>However, I do have a few things that I'd like to point out in your analysis:</p><p>Ted Thompson has had remarkable success in the first round, even compared to the man that most consider a genius in Packer history in Ron Wolf. Ignoring the past three drafts*, Thompson has hit on all of his first round picks except for Justin Harrell, as you noted. Wolf missed on Terrell Buckley, John Michels, Antoine Edwards, and Jamal Reynolds. This isn't a negative on Wolf, but more to highlight Thompson's success. Both have an average 1st round pick position of around the 20th/21st pick of the draft.</p><p></p><p>* <em>I generally avoid grading draft classes until the third season. While it could provide fodder for internet arguments, I don't see the point in guessing about drafting success until it's generally proven one way or the other. So Perry and Jones get a pass for now in my book. Sherrod does as well due to his extenuating medical situation, but 2014 will surely be his make or break season.</em></p><p></p><p>You can't look at these guys but ignore the talent that TT has found in those rounds. Every GM misses players in every round. By my grading he's done better than Wolf and equal to Tom Braatz in the 2nd round, and just below Wolf in the 3rd round. Should I list all of Wolf's and Braatz's 2nd and 3rd round busts? Shawn Patterson, Bobby Houston, Mark D'Onofrio, Torrance Marshall........the list can go on</p><p></p><p>Thompson has found gems, but to your point, more of his gems are on the offensive side of the ball. Wolf fared no better on defense. In ten drafts, Wolf only found the following defensive players in the 4th round or later: Gabe Wilkins, Na'il Diggs, KGB, and Doug Evans - that's it. If you want to scrape the barrel you could add Scott McGarrahan, Keith McKenzie, and Chris Akins but those are all reaches. So that's 4 "gems" and 15 duds unless you move the barrel reaches into the "gem" pile, which I would advise against.</p><p>From the defensive side, Mike Montgomery should be on that list as well. Thompson has picked very well in the 4th round, terribly in the 5th, very well in the 6th, and average in the 7th.</p><p></p><p>The real key, I believe, is that Wolf was a master at finding low-risk FAs and bringing them in. Bruce Wilkerson is the shining example of that tactic. Thompson's strength is the undrafted FAs. The difference tends to be that Wolf's method provided more veteran experience while Thompson's method is more cost-effective.</p><p></p><p>One could say that one way is better than the other. I would venture to think that Thompson knows what he is good and bad at doing. If he knows that he and his staff are better at evaluating college talent vs free agent talent, I'd rather have him go with his strength than force a weakness.</p><p></p><p>No matter what, he still has to find a way to bolster the defensive roster. Your main point of this thread definitely holds water though.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="El Guapo, post: 538760, member: 5830"] First of all, I love your analysis. I think that your points about where Ted Thompson is drafting from is insightful and overall the defensive analysis is well done. It certainly has been the weakpoint of his strategy. That said, all GMs have weak points. It was definitely noticeable that all of the teams playing this weekend had good defenses, quite a contrast to the Packers. However, I do have a few things that I'd like to point out in your analysis: Ted Thompson has had remarkable success in the first round, even compared to the man that most consider a genius in Packer history in Ron Wolf. Ignoring the past three drafts*, Thompson has hit on all of his first round picks except for Justin Harrell, as you noted. Wolf missed on Terrell Buckley, John Michels, Antoine Edwards, and Jamal Reynolds. This isn't a negative on Wolf, but more to highlight Thompson's success. Both have an average 1st round pick position of around the 20th/21st pick of the draft. * [I]I generally avoid grading draft classes until the third season. While it could provide fodder for internet arguments, I don't see the point in guessing about drafting success until it's generally proven one way or the other. So Perry and Jones get a pass for now in my book. Sherrod does as well due to his extenuating medical situation, but 2014 will surely be his make or break season.[/I] You can't look at these guys but ignore the talent that TT has found in those rounds. Every GM misses players in every round. By my grading he's done better than Wolf and equal to Tom Braatz in the 2nd round, and just below Wolf in the 3rd round. Should I list all of Wolf's and Braatz's 2nd and 3rd round busts? Shawn Patterson, Bobby Houston, Mark D'Onofrio, Torrance Marshall........the list can go on Thompson has found gems, but to your point, more of his gems are on the offensive side of the ball. Wolf fared no better on defense. In ten drafts, Wolf only found the following defensive players in the 4th round or later: Gabe Wilkins, Na'il Diggs, KGB, and Doug Evans - that's it. If you want to scrape the barrel you could add Scott McGarrahan, Keith McKenzie, and Chris Akins but those are all reaches. So that's 4 "gems" and 15 duds unless you move the barrel reaches into the "gem" pile, which I would advise against. From the defensive side, Mike Montgomery should be on that list as well. Thompson has picked very well in the 4th round, terribly in the 5th, very well in the 6th, and average in the 7th. The real key, I believe, is that Wolf was a master at finding low-risk FAs and bringing them in. Bruce Wilkerson is the shining example of that tactic. Thompson's strength is the undrafted FAs. The difference tends to be that Wolf's method provided more veteran experience while Thompson's method is more cost-effective. One could say that one way is better than the other. I would venture to think that Thompson knows what he is good and bad at doing. If he knows that he and his staff are better at evaluating college talent vs free agent talent, I'd rather have him go with his strength than force a weakness. No matter what, he still has to find a way to bolster the defensive roster. Your main point of this thread definitely holds water though. [/QUOTE]
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