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Message: <blockquote data-quote="JBlood" data-source="post: 542875" data-attributes="member: 16">If you believe in stats,  since 2000, good offenses beat good defenses in the NFL:  <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/03/sports/football/week-5-probabilities-why-offense-is-more-important-than-defense.html" target="_blank">http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/03/sports/football/week-5-probabilities-why-offense-is-more-important-than-defense.html</a>To summarize: ""We can use advanced metrics of team performance like Expected Points Added (EPA) and Win Probability Added (WPA) to measure the spread in performance. The standard deviation of a distribution tells us how wide a statistic is distributed — Is the bell curve wide or narrow?Since the 2000 season, the standard deviation of EPA is 81 points for team offense and 65 points for team defense. For WPA, it’s 2.6 wins for team offense and 2.0 wins for team defense. Both measures are 30 percent bigger for offense than defense." (my emphasis added)This year's Super Bowl is an exception to the rule, assuming the "rule" is accurately reflected in the data.  The NFL is geared to favor offense, and will continue to do so unless there are rules changes--such as allowing defensive holding and interference.  If nothing else, Seattle has shown how effective those methods can be-- in addition to playing good, hard defensive football.</blockquote>

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