Dark Horse Candidates

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By this point in the pre-draft process, there is a lot of consensus regarding who should go in what range of the draft and what group of prospects any particular team should consider. However, surprises seem to happen every season. So who is the player that you think could end up being Green Bay's selection that no one sees coming? Here's mine:

Roger Rosengarten, OT, Washington:

-6053, 308 lbs, 33.5" arms
-9'5" broad jump, 1.72 10 split, 4.60 short shuttle
-28 career starts, all at right tackle
-21 years old (22 in June)
-610 pass pro snaps, zero sacks, 2 QB hits allowed in 2023 (per PFF)

Here's why I can envision it: outside of not doing the 3 cone, Rosengarten checks every box that the Packers seem to look for: Size, length, testing, college role, age... it's all there. The fact that he's been a right tackle could attract them if it's true that they want to move Tom. Not for nothing, he's also been very good on the field in a system that asks a ton of its offensive linemen and uses a variety of run schemes.

He would be a surprise, but one that I wouldn't particularly mind, though I think it's probably more likely at #41.
 

sschind

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Chad Rueter has Rosengarten as his 2nd pick in the Packers ideal 1/2 draft picks. De Jean was his first.
 

tynimiller

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Trio of guys that would fit this posed discussion.

Jaden Hicks / Junior Colson and Jordan Morgan (only cuz no one is predicting it)

In same vein second round out of nowhere - Malik Mustapha and Cam Hart
 

Heyjoe4

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Trio of guys that would fit this posed discussion.

Jaden Hicks / Junior Colson and Jordan Morgan (only cuz no one is predicting it)

In same vein second round out of nowhere - Malik Mustapha and Cam Hart
Sure seems like the depth for O line in this draft is as good as it is bad for safeties and RBs. There are some very good CBs, but the drop off after pick #20, or around there, is severe.

I think the Packers can get a v good OT on day two, probably with pick #41. Just me, but I'd like to see Gluten trade some of his picks to move up to around #15 and grab a CB. There are 3 or 4 v good corners but they're all gone somewhere around #15 to #20.
 

tynimiller

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Sure seems like the depth for O line in this draft is as good as it is bad for safeties and RBs. There are some very good CBs, but the drop off after pick #20, or around there, is severe.

I think the Packers can get a v good OT on day two, probably with pick #41. Just me, but I'd like to see Gluten trade some of his picks to move up to around #15 and grab a CB. There are 3 or 4 v good corners but they're all gone somewhere around #15 to #20.

If you told me Gute leaves the first three rounds with only three players but they're two of the following three: CB, S and off ball LB I'm fine with it. Because that tells me he made damn sure he got the guys he circled as the best of those positions or in the case of CB likely top 3 or 4.

Flesh out the OL with two or three day 3 picks he/his staff have been really good at using, nab a DL project, stab at a RB and maybe an additional offball LB and call it a day.
 
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gopkrs

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I'd still like an OL guard with the first pick if he's there. And probably the linebacker with the 2nd. Although if Dejean is there???
 

tynimiller

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Just hypothetically....that approach could have Gute pounce once Q or Arnold are off the board...and then again jump to grab Edgerrin early in the second and then again trade both thirds to get into the second to nab Cole Bishop.

1.15 - give up 1.25 and 2.58 for 1.15 and 1.151 back Terrion Arnold CB *toss in a 2025 4th for their 2025 5th or such if they need touch more.

2.36 - give up 2.41 and 1.151 to move up four spots. Edgerrin Cooper LB

2.60 - trade up our 3.88 and 3.91 for 2.60 - Cole Bishop S

We'd have 4.126 / 5.169 / 6.202 / 6.219 / 7.245 / 7.255
POTENTIALLY FOR DAY 3
 

tynimiller

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I'd still like an OL guard with the first pick if he's there. And probably the linebacker with the 2nd. Although if Dejean is there???

Give me a tackle with guard shift likely if we go OL. Don't draft me an iOL only type Day1 IMO.
 

tynimiller

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Just hypothetically....that approach could have Gute pounce once Q or Arnold are off the board...and then again jump to grab Edgerrin early in the second and then again trade both thirds to get into the second to nab Cole Bishop.

1.15 - give up 1.25 and 2.58 for 1.15 and 1.151 back Terrion Arnold CB *toss in a 2025 4th for their 2025 5th or such if they need touch more.

2.36 - give up 2.41 and 1.151 to move up four spots. Edgerrin Cooper LB

2.60 - trade up our 3.88 and 3.91 for 2.60 - Cole Bishop S

We'd have 4.126 / 5.169 / 6.202 / 6.219 / 7.245 / 7.255
POTENTIALLY FOR DAY 3

Another way I'd support of doing something similar is sit at 25, pick say Mims or Guyton -> slide Tom to Center.

Trade both our 3rds and second for Carolina's 33 or 39 and nab three top 50 picks. Giving them that much likely could give us back a 4th or 5th as well.
 

Thirteen Below

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Sure seems like the depth for O line in this draft is as good as it is bad for safeties and RBs. There are some very good CBs, but the drop off after pick #20, or around there, is severe.

I think the Packers can get a v good OT on day two, probably with pick #41. Just me, but I'd like to see Gluten trade some of his picks to move up to around #15 and grab a CB. There are 3 or 4 v good corners but they're all gone somewhere around #15 to #20.
Over the last 5 drafts, an average of 4.5 tackles have gone in Round 1 each year, and 7.3 OL overall. This year, there are about 9 players who are often mocked as tackles in the first round. At #25, we have a good chance of getting a tackle who'd go 12-15 most years, and at #41, we could get one who would go somewhere in the 1st most years.

We almost can't afford not to take one of these tackles; how many years will we be able to get this kind of value in the last half dozen picks of the round?
 

Heyjoe4

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Over the last 5 drafts, an average of 4.5 tackles have gone in Round 1 each year, and 7.3 OL overall. This year, there are about 9 players who are often mocked as tackles in the first round. At #25, we have a good chance of getting a tackle who'd go 12-15 most years, and at #41, we could get one who would go somewhere in the 1st most years.

We almost can't afford not to take one of these tackles; how many years will we be able to get this kind of value in the last half dozen picks of the round?
I won't be disappointed if they get one of the top guys at T in round 1. Overall this is a weak draft, and Gluten has 11 picks - move up and grab a potential All Pro. I'd be happy with a T or CB.

One thing we haven't really discussed is the wealth of WRs in this draft. If they address Ol or corner in rd 1, I wouldn't be surprised to see Gluten take a WR on day 2. It's insurance for Watson, and adds protection against having a lot of FA WRs in one year. It sounds nutty, but so did picking Gary.
 

tynimiller

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I won't be disappointed if they get one of the top guys at T in round 1. Overall this is a weak draft, and Gluten has 11 picks - move up and grab a potential All Pro. I'd be happy with a T or CB.

One thing we haven't really discussed is the wealth of WRs in this draft. If they address Ol or corner in rd 1, I wouldn't be surprised to see Gluten take a WR on day 2. It's insurance for Watson, and adds protection against having a lot of FA WRs in one year. It sounds nutty, but so did picking Gary.

Only way I want Gute tossing a WR dart before the 5th is if we sit pat and already have a ton of guys picked....it's the same reason I'm fine with him picking Pratt QB with our second pick in the third if he stays and picks four guys ahead of him that he is more than happy with.

That second third rounder is luxury to me where I can understand going to a position of absolutely no need.
 
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One thing we haven't really discussed is the wealth of WRs in this draft. If they address Ol or corner in rd 1, I wouldn't be surprised to see Gluten take a WR on day 2. It's insurance for Watson, and adds protection against having a lot of FA WRs in one year. It sounds nutty, but so did picking Gary.
Gutey has been known to do some pretty unconventional moves.
 
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Only way I want Gute tossing a WR dart before the 5th is if we sit pat and already have a ton of guys picked....it's the same reason I'm fine with him picking Pratt QB with our second pick in the third if he stays and picks four guys ahead of him that he is more than happy with.

That second third rounder is luxury to me where I can understand going to a position of absolutely no need.
Yes. Plus Gutey sorta alluded to using that 3rd Rounder on someone who he felt might have a Top 50 value for him. So doing the bath mackwards would he pass on a TE or WR (that we really don’t drastically need) if they were there at #88? Likely not
If Malachi Corley or Ja’Tavion Sanders was there at #88 I really couldn’t blame us for bringing them aboard.
 

Thirteen Below

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I won't be disappointed if they get one of the top guys at T in round 1. Overall this is a weak draft, and Gluten has 11 picks - move up and grab a potential All Pro. I'd be happy with a T or CB.

One thing we haven't really discussed is the wealth of WRs in this draft. If they address Ol or corner in rd 1, I wouldn't be surprised to see Gluten take a WR on day 2. It's insurance for Watson, and adds protection against having a lot of FA WRs in one year. It sounds nutty, but so did picking Gary.
Gutekunst seems committed to BPA when feasible, and with almost 1 out of every 4 of the top 100 prospects being wide receivers, it seems quite likely that at some point on Day Two there's going to be a tempting WR sitting there when our turn comes up.
 
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Yes. Another one is Kalen King.

King started strong immediately as a Freshman and eventually looked like a 1st team selection when across from Joey Porter in 2022. He regressed in 2023, but he’s still a very good football player and from what I’m hearing would be an ideal Safety conversion. I just have this feeling as the #2 Safety next to Xavier thats an area he’d flourish.

#58 wouldn’t hurt my feeling IF that was our plan for him. Otherwise #88-91 is more in line
 
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Heyjoe4

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Gutekunst seems committed to BPA when feasible, and with almost 1 out of every 4 of the top 100 prospects being wide receivers, it seems quite likely that at some point on Day Two there's going to be a tempting WR sitting there when our turn comes up.
Agree. This is a great draft for WRs and O linemen and it's likely one or the other will be a BPA when the pick is up. That said, the first two picks should be OT and CB (or S if he stands pat). After that, there just aren't standout players at other positions of need, like Edge/LB, RB, and S.

Anyway, it's probably unlikely he uses any of the top 5 on a WR - so I do agree with Ty. There should still be plenty of WR talent in rounds 4 and 5, and he's done pretty well there with WRs recently, thinking of Doubs.
 

tynimiller

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Honestly I'm not picking a WR this year at all, I just don't personally see the logic of it from a roster building standpoint, but I know Gute won't fight a good prospect (relative to their board) falling too much regardless of position.

I mean seriously folks beyond our main four (Watson/Doubs/Reed/Wicks) WRs:

Malik Heath - Love to thrown him to the endzone that CRUCIAL game to win shows the IMMENSE trust and belief the staff and his QB have in him...
Bo Melton - 4.34 long speed, quick twitch, and seem to have possibly found a home /139 snaps is all he got last year...produced 218 Yards and a TD
Grant DuBose - 8+ RAS type, big bodied receiver who was hampered by some injuries...he has the quickness in short range that is special (just shy of elite)
Thyrick Pitts - a 6'1' 200lb athletic strong WR prospect from Delaware that was a rookie last year. His length and hands showcase excellent ball possession skills and his long speed of 4.45 is solid. An 8.63 RAS, his profile is promising.

I see no need or reason to add more to this room of eight.
 

Heyjoe4

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Yes. Plus Gutey sorta alluded to using that 3rd Rounder on someone who he felt might have a Top 50 value for him. So doing the bath mackwards would he pass on a TE or WR (that we really don’t drastically need) if they were there at #88? Likely not
If Malachi Corley or Ja’Tavion Sanders was there at #88 I really couldn’t blame us for bringing them aboard.
Good point. Again, this is a very strong draft for O linemen and WRs. Gotta take what is given. I'd rather he take a WR at some point, probably #88, than waste it on a LB or Edge player who will be, at best, a backup.

Given the concentration of talent at only two positions, 11 picks probably aren't needed. I expect he'll be dealing and moving around a bit, probably up at some point.
 

Heyjoe4

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Honestly I'm not picking a WR this year at all, I just don't personally see the logic of it from a roster building standpoint, but I know Gute won't fight a good prospect (relative to their board) falling too much regardless of position.

I mean seriously folks beyond our main four (Watson/Doubs/Reed/Wicks) WRs:

Malik Heath - Love to thrown him to the endzone that CRUCIAL game to win shows the IMMENSE trust and belief the staff and his QB have in him...
Bo Melton - 4.34 long speed, quick twitch, and seem to have possibly found a home /139 snaps is all he got last year...produced 218 Yards and a TD
Grant DuBose - 8+ RAS type, big bodied receiver who was hampered by some injuries...he has the quickness in short range that is special (just shy of elite)
Thyrick Pitts - a 6'1' 200lb athletic strong WR prospect from Delaware that was a rookie last year. His length and hands showcase excellent ball possession skills and his long speed of 4.45 is solid. An 8.63 RAS, his profile is promising.

I see no need or reason to add more to this room of eight.
Hard to argue with your logic Ty, and thanks for the talent break down. Maybe we just aren't used to having that much talent at WR!

One reason I think he may take a WR, aside from what's been discussed - looking to the future, and if current WRs continue to do well, he won't be able to keep everyone (Doubs/Reed/Wicks). So take a WR while the talent is there to have one ready for the future. He's certainly done this before.

And finally, Watson is a huge risk and the elephant in the room. Poker noted he's had three straight years with hamstring problems. And speed is his weapon so it seems more likely than not the injury will come back.

But yeah, with a WR roster of 8, it's gonna be tough for a new guy to break through. So it's unlikely Gluten pulls that trigger, but it wouldn't be unprecedented.
 

PikeBadger

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Gutekunst seems committed to BPA when feasible, and with almost 1 out of every 4 of the top 100 prospects being wide receivers, it seems quite likely that at some point on Day Two there's going to be a tempting WR sitting there when our turn comes up.
I find there to be almost zero chance that 25% of the top 100 prospects are WR's. But I truly hope that the other 31 teams really believe that.
 

tynimiller

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Hard to argue with your logic Ty, and thanks for the talent break down. Maybe we just aren't used to having that much talent at WR!

One reason I think he may take a WR, aside from what's been discussed - looking to the future, and if current WRs continue to do well, he won't be able to keep everyone (Doubs/Reed/Wicks). So take a WR while the talent is there to have one ready for the future. He's certainly done this before.

And finally, Watson is a huge risk and the elephant in the room. Poker noted he's had three straight years with hamstring problems. And speed is his weapon so it seems more likely than not the injury will come back.

But yeah, with a WR roster of 8, it's gonna be tough for a new guy to break through. So it's unlikely Gluten pulls that trigger, but it wouldn't be unprecedented.

Breakdown of each:

Receivers playing under final year of their contract: Grant DuBose, Thyrick Pitts and Bo Melton

Receivers that the 2025 season will be final year of contract: Malik Heath, Samori Toure, Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs

Receivers that the 2026 season will be final year of contract: Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks

Truthfully it is next year I would bank on Gute drafting someone UNLESS he decides Bo is worth a small contract up, or chooses to extend early rather than later Doubs or Watson.
 

Heyjoe4

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Breakdown of each:

Receivers playing under final year of their contract: Grant DuBose, Thyrick Pitts and Bo Melton

Receivers that the 2025 season will be final year of contract: Malik Heath, Samori Toure, Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs

Receivers that the 2026 season will be final year of contract: Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks

Truthfully it is next year I would bank on Gute drafting someone UNLESS he decides Bo is worth a small contract up, or chooses to extend early rather than later Doubs or Watson.
Thanks again for these details Ty. Makes sense that he would or could wait until next year to take another WR. and while I think taking a WR this year is a long shout, I wouldn't be surprised if it happened. And to your point, WR-talent-rich draft or not, it makes little sense to waste a pick on someone with long odds to make the roster.

Thanks to your analysis, if Watson remains sidelined for lengthy parts of the season again, I'd be very interested in seeing Melton get more snaps. He impressed in limited action last year, and he's got the speed necessary to get over the top of a defense.
 

tynimiller

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Thanks again for these details Ty. Makes sense that he would or could wait until next year to take another WR. and while I think taking a WR this year is a long shout, I wouldn't be surprised if it happened. And to your point, WR-talent-rich draft or not, it makes little sense to waste a pick on someone with long odds to make the roster.

Thanks to your analysis, if Watson remains sidelined for lengthy parts of the season again, I'd be very interested in seeing Melton get more snaps. He impressed in limited action last year, and he's got the speed necessary to get over the top of a defense.

I will say I think if we dip our toes in a WR pool this year its going to be a guy that fits either the deep speed threat or a make up we don't really have....

Late round guy to keep eye on is Anthony Gould from Oregon State....runs a 4.39, is an excellent returner and put up a 8.14 RAS thanks to a STUDLY shuttle of 4.16.

Dude is small....barely 5'8 but built solid at 174 for the size. He is literally this year's Tutu Atwell IMO without as much recognition. I honestly believe he will be one of the best Day 3 picks at WR.

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