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Dan Carpenter released by the Dolphins...

Discussion in 'Packer Fan Forum' started by Cheesehead625, Aug 15, 2013.

  1. Oshkoshpackfan

    Oshkoshpackfan YUT !!!

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    No way to tell if the slump is over. He has had no pressure type kicks yet. Preseaon and practice is one thing, but for a head case like crosby, real time is the key factor and all it will take is a miss from a makeable distance to revive all the crap in his skull that causes a miss.....then it's all down hill.
     
  2. FrankRizzo

    FrankRizzo Cheesehead

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    This "slump" you call it... A) how long has he been in this slump, and B) why in the world would you say you believe it is behind him? Because he made a few in the dome this weekend?

    I'll tell you this, I'll still have less confidence in him in a real game when he lines up a 44 or 49 or 51 yard field goal than I would in an American in Ryder Cup play making an 8-foot putt to halve a hole.
     
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  3. adambr2

    adambr2 Cheesehead

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    And again, even without this "slump", he isn't a good kicker. Take out this so-called slump year and he is still only a 79% kicker for his career, still behind everyone on the list in career accuracy I previously mentioned other than Prater and Folk, still putting him near the bottom of the NFL in accuracy.

    And even if you call it one bad year, you act like Crosby would be the first kicker in NFL history to get cut because of one bad year. Good kickers are a dime a dozen, which is why kicker is a very volatile, "what have you done for me lately" position. Hitting less than 64% of your FGs for an entire season will get a kicker cut more often than not, regardless of their previous history, which in Crosby's case is still just mediocre at best.

    David Akers performed better than Crosby last year (69% to 63.6%), kicked the longest FG in NFL history last year, has made the Pro Bowl 6 times, and is well ahead of Crosby in all-time FG percentage, with or without last season. He was cut.
     
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  4. ThxJackVainisi

    ThxJackVainisi Lifelong Packers Fanatic

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    I’m a little surprised by the fierce defense of Crosby being offered. The stats speak for themselves – Crosby’s numbers even without the slump aren’t great but he’s being paid very well. I’m not a big fan of “deleting” stats anyway – for example, if you’re going to ignore games 5-13 of last season you should ignore the best 9 consecutive games of his career. (BTW, I find it odd that someone would post he “only” struggled for more than one-half of the season.)

    For me Crosby’s mental meltdown on Family Night told me his mental problems from last season aren’t over and could crop up at any point. Having the “yips” for 9 games, apparently getting over them and then having them return the following TC is a huge concern. Add to that he is not an elite FG kicker and the rules have reduced the importance of leg strength on KOs leads me to hope they let him go. I’m holding out hope they’re waiting for a couple of FG kicker battles to sort themselves out so they can bring in the “loser” to compete with Giorgio. But I’m not holding my breath.
     
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  5. JBlood

    JBlood Cheesehead

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    I like Crosby as a person. But he's not an elite kicker. It would be good if the Mafia man turns out to be better.
     
  6. GoPGo

    GoPGo Cheesehead

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    It's neither speculation, nor is it grasping at straws. If you've actually watched the games over the years, then you KNOW that he has attempted quite a few kicks in the 55-65 yard range. MM puts him in for those kinds of kicks once or twice every year. You also know by watching other games that a lot of kickers never kick from there. I bet you can count Longwell's attempts from that range on one or two fingers.

    Sure it does. It means you can hang the ball up higher on kickoffs and allow your coverage to get further downfield to make the play and stop the return short of the 20 yard line. It also allows you to kick from a little further with a head wind.
     
  7. GoPGo

    GoPGo Cheesehead

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    What's this "2 years" bullshit? He hit his slump last October and he worked out of it in December.
     
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  8. GoPGo

    GoPGo Cheesehead

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    Oh I see, but Family Night carries more weight than actual games, preseason or not.
     
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  9. adambr2

    adambr2 Cheesehead

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    Yeah, because that's why people want Crosby gone. It has nothing to do with the fact that he was the worst fulltime kicker in the NFL last year. It has nothing to do with the fact that he is one of the least accurate kickers in the NFL in CAREER numbers. Has nothing to do with the fact that despite these numbers, he is in the top 5 paid NFL kickers. Nope, it's all about his performance on family night.
     
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  10. GoPGo

    GoPGo Cheesehead

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    You can quit with the "least accurate kickers" bullcrap. We've already established that inside 50 yards, he's middle of the pack in accuracy. The ONLY reason he is near the bottom in career numbers is because he had a rough 2 months in 2012 and because he is asked by MM to attempt an inordinate number of attempts beyond 50 yards and furthermore beyond 55 yards, regardless of wind and temperature and that will skew ANY kicker's percentage.

    I can take Billy Cundiff, make sure he only attempts FGs shorter than 35 yards and in a few years I can turn him into the NFL's all-time most accurate kicker. And the further you are away, the more difference every yard makes.

    Go shoot some NBA 3 pointers for half an hour. Then back up 2 feet and see how much less accurate you are. It's the same with FGs. A 55 yard FG is significantly more difficult than a 50 yard FG. And MM sends him out to kick a lot of those. Sweep that fact under the rug all you want but don't think nobody is going to notice you do it.
     
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  11. GoPGo

    GoPGo Cheesehead

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    Disagree with facts all you want. It doesn't change them.
     
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  12. 12theTruth

    12theTruth Guest

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    Gotta love when some try to discount the parts of a career that help make the facts that you so rely on just what they are. Sorry to inform you but last year was just as important to Mason Crosby's career as any other year. Facts state clearly that for Mason Crosby's career he is at the bottom tier for accuracy even at FG's less than 50 yards.

    No other way to slice it than Crosby is a poor FG kicker based on his career stats. Sucks when the facts don't lie.
     
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  13. I_am_smoked_cheddar

    I_am_smoked_cheddar Guest

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    Maybe Dan Carpenter can catch on in Jacksonville ! :roflmao:
     
  14. adambr2

    adambr2 Cheesehead

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    I will try to explain again, though this is like talking to a brick wall at this point.

    Mason Crosby is an inaccurate kicker. He has the stats to back it up. Please let go of the ridiculous delusion that a handful of missed FG's from 55+ in Mason's career have given him a career 76.8% FG percentage. Or please show me some kind of statistical evidence showing that Mason is "middle of the pack other than that". You could take out Crosby's entire last season, which would be ridiculous, and he would STILL not be in the top 25 most accurate kickers in the NFL. That is an inaccurate kicker.

    I don't know about you, but a kicker's accuracy is sort of an important trait to me, since it is directly tied to scoring points. Even if you say he is "middle of the pack", he is paid as top 5. So why would you want to keep him? I have no idea. I would guess either you A) Just like Mason Crosby a lot personally, or B) You have defended him in the past and now feel obligated to continue doing so regardless of the amount of speculation or stretching of facts required to do so.

    Also, a "slump" and someone being "bad" are not mutually exclusive. Just because Mason was worse than his career numbers from October to December last year does not make him good other than that. If Mark Sanchez throws 3 INT's in 4 straight games, that would probably qualify as a "slump". That does not mean he is not still a bad quarterback.
     
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  15. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    I like my wife as a person but I'd hate her as a football player.

    Nice, not nice, not very relevant. Nice enough to stay out of handcuffs and not get busted for PEDs is perfectly adequate.
     
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  16. adambr2

    adambr2 Cheesehead

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    "We've" already established that inside 50 yards, Crosby is middle of the pack in accuracy? Who is we? Anything to back this up, or just talking again?

    And Crosby is just as inaccurate from 50 as he is from 55.

    The hilarious thing about your "facts" is that you have yet to post any, you speculate and talk about how many attempts he has had from 55+ compared to his peers. Yet you just want us to take your word for it, because you offer no actual evidence of this.

    Sebastian Janikowski has attempted a whopping 75 FG's from 50+ in his career, and has converted them at about a 15% higher rate than Crosby. Since I can also speculate with no links to back me up, I would be willing to bet that Janikowski has attempted far more 55+ yard field goals in his career than Crosby.
     
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  17. adambr2

    adambr2 Cheesehead

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    Which is all a non-issue because Masthay is equally as capable of kicking off as Crosby is. Surely you've seen that in camp the last couple years.
     
  18. Raptorman

    Raptorman Vikings fan since 1966.

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    Last edited: Aug 20, 2013
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  19. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    Raptorman: You said 55+ but the query was "outside the 34" which suggests 52+.

    Here's a query covering all of Crosby's attempts:

    http://www.pro-football-reference.c...esult=&margin_min=&margin_max=&order_by=yards

    By my count, Crosby is 2-6 from 55+ for his career. Both makes were during his 2010 - 2011 hot streak which lasted the equivalent of one full season. If he had made ALL 6 of those kicks, it would only get him up to 78.8% for his career for all kicks, which is below average. The argument that Crosby attempts a disproportionate number of 55+ kicks which skews his numbers doesn't hold water.

    Crosby is 14 for 33 for his career from 50+. If your table has clean numbers from that 52+ query, that means he is 4 of 9 from 50 or 51. That's not a great number. A little less than average I'd say.

    All the data suggest he's a somewhat below average career kicker coming off a head-case season.

    If this forum is any indication, many fans remember the good and block out the bad. That applies not only to Crosby, by the way.
     
    Last edited: Aug 19, 2013
  20. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    That's right. Jolly is playing his *** off. As soon as he doesn't we'll be all over him like a cheap suit regardless of any past history. Raji running his motor in 3rd. gear these past two seasons has drawn the criticism it deserves.

    Crosby is a head case until proven otherwise, and failure of proof tends to happen at the most inopportune time.

    We're looking at a 10-6 season here; a continuation of the cold streak could cost the playoffs.

    The benefit of the doubt would no doubt be granted to a career above-average kicker. Crosby wasn't that good before the cold streak.
     
    Last edited: Aug 20, 2013
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  21. Raptorman

    Raptorman Vikings fan since 1966.

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    Crap. How did I screw that up? Your right that's for 52+ yards. 55+ Crosby only has 7 attempts and 3 scores.
    Code:
    Player                 FGA    FGM    Percent
    Sebastian Janikowski    26    11    42.3%
    Greg Zuerlein            8     4    50.0%
    Jay Feely                4     4   100.0%
    Matt Prater              7     4    57.1%
    Mason Crosby             7     3    42.9%
    
    OK that should be 55+. BTW, Carpenter is 4-2 from 55+
     
  22. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    You came up with 3-7 instead of my 2-6...lets go with your query. That's not a lot of kicks from long distance as some claim over a 6 year career. So, again, lets assume he made ALL 7 of those kicks...that adds 4 to his career make count as with my 2-6...that's still a career 78.8% record for all kicks...below average.

    Crosby's 7 tries from 55+ represent 3.5% of his career 198 kicks.

    Carpenter's 4 tries from 55+ represent 2.6% of his career 155 kicks.

    The difference in attempts is not significant...about 1 kick every 2 or 3 years.
     
    Last edited: Aug 19, 2013
  23. GoPGo

    GoPGo Cheesehead

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    Here's another fact. He hit 86% in 2011. I see no reason he can't regain that, just like Longwell did in 2004.
     
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  24. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    We should comment on money in this discussion.

    The name kickers who have been recently cut were let go over money. They all seem to have been making about $2.5 mil per year. That will pay for a rookie low round pick or FA for 4 years. A guy like Carpenter is waiting around for some team to get desperate...injury, incumbent slump...to maximize his pay check. He's not going to sign some vet minimum with no bonus just to "compete".

    If we want a guy like Carpenter we'll have to pay him some money and cut Crosby. A tryout and physical, maybe, but a competition...no way.

    Further, Crosby's has 2 years left on his deal that had a $3 mil signing bonus. Cutting him now will cost $1.2 mil in dead cap money. In the old days, when cap $ didn't carry over, it wouldn't be an issue with the current cap cushion. Nowadays, dead cap is real money that could be used next year for somebody else.

    As stated earlier, it is my opinion the Packers will stick with Crosby unless he suddenly implodes. I don't agree with that but I think that's what they'll do.

    There are always one or two consensus premium kickers in every class and they usually pan out. And all they cost is a 6th. round pick and not much money. There's always the 2014 draft.
     
    Last edited: Aug 19, 2013
  25. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    He had 1 above average year out of 6. That usually gets a guy a vet minimum contract or a trip to the bubble.
     
    Last edited: Aug 19, 2013

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