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Currently 18.6 mil cap space??? Still?
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<blockquote data-quote="HardRightEdge" data-source="post: 725623"><p>I'm not sure you can assume that without examining the TV contracts which are not a matter of public record. Consider the following:</p><p></p><p>1) 70% of the TV money goes toward the cap.</p><p></p><p>2) TV ratings for the 2016 Olympics fell short of those for the 2012 games. The networks refunded advertiser money. Did that flow back to the IOC having to rebate the networks? I can't find any info on that, but it would not be surprising that payment for the content would be in some way dependent on ratings. Will 2020 ad rates and IOC payments be flat to lower? I think you can bet on it.</p><p></p><p>3) NFL TV ratings were down markedly last season:</p><p></p><p><a href="https://www.recode.net/2017/2/4/14508632/nfl-tv-ratings-down-moffettnathanson" target="_blank">https://www.recode.net/2017/2/4/14508632/nfl-tv-ratings-down-moffettnathanson</a></p><p></p><p>It's interesting to note that the Packers/Cowboys playoff game ratings set a record for the divisional playoffs being a notable exception.</p><p></p><p>A couple of things may be going on. First, the presidential campaign drew a lot attention; politics remain elevated in the schema of national pastimes. A second problem may be that while marquis match-ups with national fan bases will draw eyeballs as with Cowboys/Packers, perhaps the lesser match-ups are skipped over to go track fantasy scoring, particularly with the rise in fantasy wagering. Who wants to watch a Sunday Jets/Bills match-up when there's money on the line elsewhere which requires flipping from one real-time box score to another?</p><p></p><p>Despite the decline in ratings, the cap went up meaningfully this year. If ratings do not recover, would cap increases of that magnitude persist? Surely not. Networks cannot keep paying more and more for the same or declining eyeballs.</p><p></p><p>4) It's kinda interesting that overthecap.com has penciled in a base cap number of $178 mil for 2018, an $11 mil bump, business as usual. sportrac.com, however, is using $168 mil for 2018, a scant $1 mil bump. Does sportrac know something overthecap does not?</p><p></p><p>5) If anybody thinks last year's TV ratings are not on the minds of cap managers in longer term planning, that's probably a mistake.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="HardRightEdge, post: 725623"] I'm not sure you can assume that without examining the TV contracts which are not a matter of public record. Consider the following: 1) 70% of the TV money goes toward the cap. 2) TV ratings for the 2016 Olympics fell short of those for the 2012 games. The networks refunded advertiser money. Did that flow back to the IOC having to rebate the networks? I can't find any info on that, but it would not be surprising that payment for the content would be in some way dependent on ratings. Will 2020 ad rates and IOC payments be flat to lower? I think you can bet on it. 3) NFL TV ratings were down markedly last season: [URL]https://www.recode.net/2017/2/4/14508632/nfl-tv-ratings-down-moffettnathanson[/URL] It's interesting to note that the Packers/Cowboys playoff game ratings set a record for the divisional playoffs being a notable exception. A couple of things may be going on. First, the presidential campaign drew a lot attention; politics remain elevated in the schema of national pastimes. A second problem may be that while marquis match-ups with national fan bases will draw eyeballs as with Cowboys/Packers, perhaps the lesser match-ups are skipped over to go track fantasy scoring, particularly with the rise in fantasy wagering. Who wants to watch a Sunday Jets/Bills match-up when there's money on the line elsewhere which requires flipping from one real-time box score to another? Despite the decline in ratings, the cap went up meaningfully this year. If ratings do not recover, would cap increases of that magnitude persist? Surely not. Networks cannot keep paying more and more for the same or declining eyeballs. 4) It's kinda interesting that overthecap.com has penciled in a base cap number of $178 mil for 2018, an $11 mil bump, business as usual. sportrac.com, however, is using $168 mil for 2018, a scant $1 mil bump. Does sportrac know something overthecap does not? 5) If anybody thinks last year's TV ratings are not on the minds of cap managers in longer term planning, that's probably a mistake. [/QUOTE]
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Currently 18.6 mil cap space??? Still?
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